Keeping an eye on next week

While we move through a one-week break from the cold weather, meteorologists and weather geeks will be looking closely at the always-waffling computer models for a hint about what will happen early next week.

The models show a strong cold high pressure system pushing southward from Canada into the United States in a few days. The models also show a low pressure system moving across the South.

That is a scenario for wintry precipitation, and some of the models show freezing rain and some sleet over parts of North Carolina and a few other spots in the Southeast. The time frame for the Carolinas would be late Sunday and Monday.

Regardless of whether it's frozen or not, plenty of precipitation appears to be in our future later this week. Rainfall chances will be increasing gradually every day.

The wintry scenario for the Carolinas depends on a strong cold air damming event to set up. That would mean strong high pressure over the Northeast or eastern Great Lakes, sending cold air on a northeast flow into the Carolinas. At the same time, low pressure would need to follow a track across the Southeast.

Some of the models show that. Others show the high pressure system not being that strong, or the low pressure system tracking up the Ohio Valley instead. If that happens, we would have a cold rain.

In recent winters, a strong high pressure system has established itself off the Southeast coast. That has served to fight off intrusions of cold air and keep conditions relatively mild in the Carolinas.
There are signs of such a ridge of high pressure strengthening in the near future.

If cold air damming looks likely and low pressure seems headed on a southerly track, you'll be hearing more about this ice threat soon.