tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-40863491033078296252024-03-13T04:21:15.235-04:00Weather GuyA look beyond the weather forecastUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger460125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-72752012753547613722015-01-07T08:38:00.001-05:002015-01-07T08:38:03.921-05:00First the cold; then a narrow escape Monday?Exactly a year to the date of last year's coldest arctic outbreak in the Charlotte region, another burst of polar air is spilling into the Carolinas on Wednesday.<br />
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An arctic cold front is expected to cross the immediate Charlotte area sometime around midday, and temperatures will tumble from around 40 degrees late Wednesday morning to 10 degrees by daybreak Thursday. And forecasters said there will be even colder readings in some places not far from Charlotte.<br />
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The good news, according to meteorologists, is that long-range guidance indicates the Carolinas might escape a messy ice storm early next week.<br />
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It was a year ago today when the temperature dropped to 6 degrees in Charlotte. It's not expected to get quite that cold Thursday morning, but readings at daybreak probably won't be too far from the record of 8 degrees for the date.<br />
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A wind chill advisory is in effect for Wednesday evening and early Thursday. Winds will gust up to 30 mph from late afternoon until around midnight, causing wind chills of 5 to 15 degrees. Forecasters said the winds will abate overnight, but they'll still be blowing at up to 10 mph, causing wind chills slightly below zero in Charlotte.<br />
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In the mountains, wind chill readings could tumble to 10 or 15 degrees below zero.<br />
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There are two threats from this cold -- the wind chills, which will be a problem from about 6 p.m. Wednesday until midday Thursday; and the prolonged cold, which will be a problem for water pipes and heating systems.<br />
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The polar outbreak will send temperatures below freezing in the Charlotte area from about midnight until shortly before noon Friday. Some areas above 3,500 feet might not get above freezing until Saturday.<br />
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Thursday's highs in Charlotte will only reach the upper 20s. Highs will be in the lower 40s Friday.<br />
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When temperatures are in the teens for many hours, as will be the case Thursday, frozen water pipes are the typical result. Be sure to keep water dripping from a faucet tonight. Plumbers say it's best to use the faucet farthest from where water enters the house.<br />
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Heating systems obviously will be seriously taxed. Assuming it's too late to get a system checkup on <br />Wednesday, you might want to consider putting towels around window sills that leak cold air. And make sure electrical outlets are covered.<br />
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Another tip ... on Thursday, when the sun is shining, be sure to keep your blinds open on sunny sides of the house. Even though the temperature is in the 20s, the solar heat will help warm the inside of your residence.<br />
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Looking ahead to next week ...<br />
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Moisture is expected to arrive Sunday and intensify Monday, but the computer guidance can't agree on whether that will pose a threat of wintry precipitation for the Charlotte region.<br />
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The moisture is coming, the computer models agree. But they can't agree on the timing, and that's important. One strong high pressure system over New England will be moving out to sea Sunday, to be follow by another late Monday or Tuesday.<br />
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Two of the three most heavily used computer models predict the precipitation will arrive in the "gap" between the two cold high pressure systems. That means cold rain for the Charlotte region. The Global weather model predicts the precipitation will arrive with enough cold air still around for freezing rain Sunday.<br />
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The National Weather Service is leaning toward the cold rain scenario.<br />
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Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-81788193433597052022015-01-06T11:07:00.005-05:002015-01-06T11:07:53.950-05:00Brutal cold could set stage for weekend headachesThe late Woody Hayes, longtime Ohio State University football coach, used to say that three things can happen when you throw the football, and two of them are bad.<br />
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That's sort of what it's like when an arctic air mass moves into the Carolinas. As long as the cold is here, or even nearby, we're at risk of trouble.<br />
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The cold air -- our coldest of the season -- will arrive Wednesday afternoon. The wind will pick up, and temperatures will fall late Wednesday afternoon and evening from about 40 degrees into the teens. By Thursday morning, many spots in the Charlotte region will be sitting at 10 degrees.<br />
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It won't get above 30 degrees in most areas Thursday afternoon, and it'll drop into the teens again Friday morning.<br />
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A second arctic air mass will arrive late Friday or Saturday, and although the temperatures with the second system won't be quite as cold, they'll be cold enough to leave us at risk of trouble Sunday.<br />
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That's when a low pressure system off the Mexican coast could push eastward and begin affecting the Southeast.<br />
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One heavily used weather computer model, the Global, is predicting that the storm system, while weak, will spread precipitation into the Carolinas on Sunday morning. At that point, temperatures will be cold enough for freezing rain. I realize that some people enjoy wintry precipitation, but I don't think very many people want freezing rain. Power outages with temperatures in the 30s are not fun.<br />
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The other major weather computer model, the European, is predicting that the energy will remain over Baja California a bit longer and not reach the Carolinas until Sunday evening. By that time, the cold dome of high pressure over New England is expected to have moved offshore, and temperatures will climb enough so any precipitation falls as rain.<br />
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This is what we'll be watching over the next few days.<br />
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By the way, some of the longer-range computer guidance indicates the cold air will be reinforced early next week, and a fairly strong storm system will form off the Southeast coast. But that's more than a week away, and forecasts that far out are not terribly trustworthy.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-50576975526819015682015-01-03T12:00:00.000-05:002015-01-03T12:00:12.012-05:00Arctic blast is heading this wayCharlotte-area weather will go through some weird twists and turns over the next 36 hours, but the big story is coming near the end of the week.<br />
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An arctic blast, featuring temperatures that are easily the coldest of the season, is poised to envelop the eastern United States and sink far into the South. <br />
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The cold air will arrive late Wednesday, as it now appears, and it will be a dry arrival -- no rain, no snow for the Piedmont.<br />
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The day of real change will be Thursday. Computer guidance on polar outbreaks is sometimes not extremely reliable, but if you believe what the computer models are forecasting, we might have a tough time climbing above freezing Thursday in Charlotte.<br />
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It will be windy, with wind chill temperatures probably at 10 degrees or lower for much of the day in the Charlotte region. That, of course, means we're looking at morning lows Thursday and Friday in the low to mid teens.<br />
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There is nothing to indicate at this point that the cold outbreak will be anything but dry. Humidity levels are forecast to be very low, and it would seem that we're talking about clear-blue skies and cold temperatures.<br />
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Computer guidance indicates the shot of cold air will be transient, with temperatures back in the 40s by Friday. But some bitterly cold air will be bottled over Canada, and it's not far-fetched to believe that another push of polar air will move into the Southeast early the following week.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-80826023507912457172014-12-30T16:40:00.002-05:002014-12-30T16:40:20.526-05:00Panthers' game day weather looks colder, wetterIt's looking more like Carolina Panthers' fans will be sitting in a chilly rain Saturday at Bank of America Stadium for the NFL playoff game against Arizona.<br />
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The later computer guidance shows strong high pressure over New England and a strengthening low pressure system moving from the Gulf of Mexico up toward the Ohio Valley on Saturday.<br />
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This is a scenario we have seen many times in recent months. It's classic cold air damming, with a flow of chilly air being pumped into the Carolinas Piedmont and Foothills off the Atlantic. That cold air is dense and nearly impossible to dislodge.<br />
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Low pressure probably will create a warm front that will lift temperatures into the 60s to the south of Charlotte, but we'll be stuck in the upper 40s and lower 50s during the rain on Saturday and early Sunday.<br />
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So as of late Tuesday afternoon, the best guess for kickoff is for temperatures around 47 degrees and intermittent rain, probably becoming more consistent as the game goes on.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-73630615698340782182014-12-29T08:38:00.001-05:002014-12-29T08:38:22.067-05:00First look at Panthers-Cardinals: Wet, mildIf we've learned anything from weather computer models since early December, it's that they change frequently and are not terribly reliable beyond a few days.<br />
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But there seems to be agreement, five days away, that weather in the Carolinas this weekend will be unsettled.<br />
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The first guess for conditions at 4:30 p.m. Saturday, when the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals kick off their NFL wild-card playoff game, is for a chance of rain and temperatures above average for early January.<br />
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The various computer guidance input seems to agree on wet weather for the weekend, but the details are where everything gets tricky.<br />
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Will it rain all day Saturday? Will the rain be light, sporadic, or heavy? Those are questions we can't answer yet.<br />
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Very cold air is plunging into the continental United States this week, but the core of that cold will remain north of the Mason-Dixon line in the eastern United States. The Midwest and West will see a more southward push of the cold air.<br />
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Some of the cold will seep into the Southeast from Tuesday into Friday, but high temperatures those days will still reach the mid and upper 40s.<br />
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By the weekend, a moderating trend is likely. That's why the National Weather Service is predicting a high in the upper 50s Saturday.<br />
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In a few days, we'll have a better feel for exactly how wet it might be Saturday.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-85224289488354158102014-12-26T17:48:00.001-05:002014-12-26T17:48:13.211-05:00Coming up: A very mild January for CarolinasRemember the other day, when I wrote that a few computer models were hinting that the much-publicized "pattern change" to cold and stormy weather might not be coming as expected at the beginning of the year?<br />
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I wrote that it was just a few runs of the models and not yet a trend.<br />
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Now it's a trend.<br />
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Most of the long-range guidance, including the pretty reliable Coupled Forecast System (CFSv2) operated by NOAA, is pointing to a mild January in the Southeast. In fact, temperatures could be well above average, if everything breaks the way it seems.<br />
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This marks a pretty big bust in many of the long-range forecasts that had called for a chilly and stormy winter, with the worst of the wintry weather arriving in early January.<br />
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First of all, this doesn't mean that it won't get chilly in the Carolinas, because it will -- next week. We're looking at several days of below-average temperatures before and immediately after New Years, although it won't be bitterly cold -- just highs in the mid and upper 40s for a few days.<br />
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Second, it doesn't mean arctic cold won't push into the United States. It looks like a blast of cold will slide southward from Canada into the Midwest, dumping cold air into Texas all the way to the Rio Grande next week.<br />
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But the computer guidance insists that the cold air won't push east of the Appalachians. Many of the forecasts show a persistent high pressure ridge off the Florida coast. Those southeast ridges are a death knell to wintry weather in the Southeast.<br />
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The Arctic Oscillation (AO) refuses to go negative, which keeps a steady west-to-east flow across the southern United States.<br />
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This doesn't mean our weather won't turn much colder in late January or February, but it means the computers certainly don't think it will happen anytime soon.<br />
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What caused the forecasts to go so wrong? I've been reading a lot of possible explanations, but it's really a reminder that what the science of meteorology has improved a lot in recent years, there are still many things we don't understand. One theory I've seen thrown around the past few days is solar activity, with the theory being that strong solar activity overrides many of our other weather factors.<br />
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Greg Fishel of WRAL-TV wrote on his <a href="https://www.facebook.com/WRALGregFishel">Facebook page</a> on Friday afternoon that the last time we had a pattern like the one developing in early January was in 2005 and again in 2006. Both years, we had highs in the 60s and 70s.<br />
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Those two winters produced some of our lightest snowfall ever -- a trace in 2004-05 and 1 inch in 2005-06.<br />
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All it takes is one big storm to give us a big snowfall total, but it doesn't seem likely any time soon.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-75618916334830446272014-12-22T12:52:00.002-05:002014-12-22T12:52:58.850-05:00Winter ... now you see it ... now you don'tThose of you who follow weather <em>very</em> closely might be bored by what I'm saying today. Casual followers of weather might want to read on, however.<br />
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You all know about computer models -- the computer-based guidance that is a tool used by meteorologists in forecasting the weather.<br />
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The models update several times a day, and those who follow the updates closely are sometimes known by the term "model-huggers." Model-hugging can be a frustrating experience, and the last 48 hours is an example of that.<br />
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By following some of the output of the Global model, you'd have thought a few days ago that the Carolinas (and much of the central and eastern United States) were heading into arctic cold and winter storms, starting shortly before the end of the year.<br />
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Then on Sunday night came new models, indicating that maybe the very cold weather wouldn't be sinking far enough south and east to affect the Carolinas. Maybe it would remain bottled up in Canada, or perhaps moving no farther southeast than the Midwest.<br />
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In other words, forget about wintry weather for a while.<br />
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Experienced meteorologists tend to study the trends before making forecasts.<br />
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The trend late last week pointed to a pattern change for the Southeast. There were indications that we'd move from our December pattern -- with temperatures averaging around seasonal norms and no real threat of wintry weather -- to a wintry, stormy pattern.<br />
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One facilitator of that change would be the deep low pressure system that is expected to push northward from the Deep South into the eastern Great Lakes and southern Canada over the next few days.<br />
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Now, based on the last few model runs, all that is in doubt again. The most recent computer guidance says the current Carolinas weather pattern will continue, for the most part, into at least the first several days of January. In other words, no pattern change.<br />
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But the model runs late Sunday hardly constitute a trend. That will be determined from what the guidance tells us over the next few days.<br />
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<strong>Today's Christmas facts ...</strong> Last week, I wrote about the most successful (financially) Christmas movies. But what are the most popular?<br />
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The website <a href="http://www.whattodowiththekids.com/">What To Do With The Kids</a> (which can provide ideas on keeping children busy during the holidays) says it interviewed people last year on their favorite holiday movies. The response:<br />
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1. "How The Grinch Stole Christmas" (the 1966 animated version); 2. "The Polar Express" (2004 animated version); 3. "It's A Wonderful Life" (1946); 4. "Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer" (1964, animation); 5. "Elf" (2004); 6. (tie) "A Charlie Brown Christmas" (1965, animation); "The Santa Clause" (1994); "Frosty the Snowman" (1969, animation); 9. "The Grinch" (2000); 10. "Miracle on 34th Street" (1947 version); 11. "National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation" (1989); 12. "A Muppet Christmas Carol" (1992).<br />
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Incidentally, "How The Grinch Stole Christmas" was also No. 1 in the last poll conducted by the website, in 2011.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-71121168722276227932014-12-20T19:57:00.000-05:002014-12-20T22:00:34.944-05:00Stormy (and important) weather week aheadSunshine will be at a premium for much of this week in the Charlotte area, but the big news will be a storm system that could become strong enough to alter weather patterns in the continental United States for the rest of December and at least a part of January.<br />
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First, the local weather situation ...<br />
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We'll remain in a cold air wedge pattern through Tuesday, with high pressure based over the Northeast. Sunday is likely to be cloudy and cool, with a high of 50 degrees in Charlotte. A bit of sunshine is possible in the afternoon, but fans attending the Panthers' game against the Cleveland Browns will see mostly cloudy skies.<br />
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A storm system expected to form off the coast late Sunday is predicted to bring light rain to Charlotte and the rest of the Carolinas from late Sunday until late Monday.<br />
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But the big story arrives Tuesday. It appears as if a pair of low pressure systems -- one in the Midwest, the other moving across the South and then bending northward over Tennessee, Kentucky and into the eastern Great Lakes -- will tug a cold front east across the country. The low will deepen rapidly late Tuesday and Wednesday and eventually move into southern Canada.<br />
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Some meteorologists think that low pressure system will become strong enough to cause a buckle in the jet stream and possibly open the way for arctic air to surge back into the continental United States (where it has been largely missing since November).<br />
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The midweek storm will bring heavy rain in the East, and the Charlotte region might experience some of that late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Dense fog is likely in the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, but the biggest story will be the winds. The low pressure system will be deep enough to create a strong wind field over the eastern half of the United States. That could play havoc with flight schedules late Tuesday and Wednesday in some of the East Coast's biggest airports.<br />
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And as the storm system pushes into Canada, much colder air on the back side will sweep across the Great Lakes and bring a round of heavy lake-effect snow in the usual spots -- upstate New York, northwest Pennsylvania, northeast Ohio, western Michigan and northwest Indiana.<br />
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Even in the Charlotte area, Christmas Day is likely to be windy and chilly.<br />
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A big question is when the much-publicized "pattern change" is coming -- or if it's coming. Some meteorologists have been talking for weeks about a switch to colder and stormier weather around New Year's in the East and Southeast. But some of the more recent computer guidance is pointing toward the Midwest as the bullseye for the cold weather.<br />
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<strong>More Christmas trivia ...</strong> I've been having some fun with Christmas facts for the last few weeks, and this chapter will look at some of the trendiest holiday gifts in the past. According to an Esquire <a href="http://www.esquire.com/blogs/gifts/top-christmas-gifts#slide-1">article</a> from two years ago, these were the most popular gifts of some Christmases in the past (these will bring back some memories, no doubt):<br />
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<strong>2010:</strong> Apple iPad; <strong>2009:</strong> Nook eReader; <strong>2007:</strong> iPod Touch; <strong>2006:</strong> Play Station 3; <strong>2005:</strong> Xbox 360; <strong>2001:</strong> Bratz dolls (I don't remember these, but Esquire said the dolls depicted teen girl with large heads and skinny bodies).<br />
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<strong>1999:</strong> Pokémon (I remember reporting on fights that started in schools among students who collected the Pokémon cards); <strong>1998:</strong> Furby; <strong>1995:</strong> Beanie Babies; <strong>1993 and 1994:</strong> Mighty Morphin Power Rangers; <strong>1990:</strong> Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles; <strong>1989:</strong> Game Boy.<br />
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<strong>1985:</strong> Care Bears; <strong>1984:</strong> Transformers; <strong>1983:</strong> Cabbage Patch Kids (torture is driving from Charlotte to Cleveland with a 3-year-old daughter playing the "Cabbage Patch Kids" theme song on a tape player in the back seat for 535 miles); <strong>1981:</strong> Smurfs; <strong>1978:</strong> Hungry Hungry Hippos.<br />
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<strong>1975:</strong> Pet Rock; <strong>1959:</strong> Barbie doll; <strong>1952:</strong> Mr. Potato Head; <strong>1936:</strong> Monopoly.<br />
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For pictures and a better description of those gifts (and for some of the other years), be sure to check out the <a href="http://www.esquire.com/blogs/gifts/top-christmas-gifts#slide-1">Esquire article.</a>Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-79929960825053106212014-12-15T22:00:00.002-05:002014-12-15T22:00:57.247-05:00Weekend storm could hit Christmas travelersMany people will begin their Christmas travels this weekend, and anyone planning to leave Saturday for destinations north of North Carolina might encounter bad driving conditions.<br />
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The first of what is expected to be three Christmas season storms will cross the South on Friday and Saturday. The storm almost certainly will bring a chilly rain to the Charlotte region, but the N.C. mountains could get a substantial amount of snow. And areas farther to the north appear headed for a snow or ice event.<br />
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There still is considerable disagreement in computer guidance about the weekend storm.<br />
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The Global computer model depicts a weak storm system with not much in the way of precipitation. The European model shows a stronger storm that crosses the Carolinas as it curves up the East Coast. Temperature profiles for Charlotte and the rest of the Piedmont are a bit too warm for anything frozen.<br />
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John Tomko of the National Weather Service's office in Greer, S.C., said Monday that a cold rain is likely for the Piedmont and foothills, with the snow threat reserved for the mountains.<br />
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But Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania would be in the cross-hairs for heavy snow -- should the European model be correct. Precipitation likely would end in those areas by late Saturday, so postponing a trip up north for 24 hours might not be the worst idea.<br />
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The second storm system, which would arrive sometime around Christmas or the day after, hasn't really formed yet and is just an area of disturbed weather in the Pacific Ocean. But some of the long-range computer guidance in the last day or two indicates temperatures once again will be a bit too mild in Charlotte for anything other than rain.<br />
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But that's 10 days away, and a lot can change by then.<br />
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<strong>Christmas fun facts ...</strong> Today we'll focus on meteorology again, with NOAA's report on chances of a white Christmas in various parts of the country.<br />
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NOAA's report, issued a few days ago, doesn't take into consideration computer modeling for the next few weeks. It's based on the past, and records show the chance of a white Christmas in Charlotte is less than 10 percent.<br />
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But if you're headed into a potentially snowy area for the Christmas holidays, check out <a href="http://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/are-you-dreaming-white-christmas">NOAA's report</a> on the chances of a white Christmas.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-13450575829721915272014-12-13T22:05:00.001-05:002014-12-13T22:05:42.364-05:002 Christmas week storms, many possibilitiesThe details remain very sketchy, but it's becoming more obvious that our quiet weather pattern in the Carolinas has a little less than one week remaining.<br />
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As I wrote on Friday, the long-range guidance continues to show a pair of storm systems crossing the United States on Christmas week. The first system will affect the Carolinas next Saturday and Sunday, with the second storm arriving sometime around (or immediately after) Christmas.<br />
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There are a couple possibilities for the first storm, but none of them involve snow in the Charlotte area.<br />
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The system is forecast to enter the West Coast, but that's where the computer models differ. One possibility is for the storm to be fairly strong and curve northward across western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and into the Great Lakes. That would be a rain-maker for the Carolinas.<br />
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Another scenario would have the system weakening as it moves eastward, bringing only showers to the Charlotte area. The Global computer model favors that possibility.<br />
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And a third scenario would send a strong storm system across the Deep South, bringing a cold rain to the Charlotte area and snow to the mountains. There even could be snow along and north of the Interstate 40 corridor.<br />
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The first storm could set the table for a better chance of wintry weather in the Carolinas with the second system. It would leave a layer of snow on the ground in the Midwest, which means colder air would funnel into the Carolinas.<br />
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<strong>Christmas Fun Stuff ...</strong> As you dig for your wallet to pay for those Christmas gifts, you might be interested to know that Carolinas' residents are among the nation's leaders big spenders.<br />
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The website WalletHub reported it studied spending, debt levels and personal belongings, and it ranked South Carolinas 11th and North Carolina 13th among the big spenders in the country.<br />
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Biggest spenders during this holiday season are in Mississippi, followed by Idaho, New Mexico, Florida and Utah in the top five. The thriftiest people, according to WalletHub, live in the District of Columbia. Ranking 47th through 50th are Maryland, California, Massachusetts and New York.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-32862383917150281472014-12-12T16:48:00.002-05:002014-12-12T16:48:31.867-05:00Stormy period ahead for Christmas weekMuch of the long-range computer guidance is painting a stormy picture over the United States during Christmas week.<br />
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It is entirely possible, in fact, that the coming week will mark the end of our recent run of relatively calm weather. The Christmas holiday might mark the changeover to colder and stormier conditions that have been predicted by a number of forecasters for January and February.<br />
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There's no doubt that the coming week will be very pleasant. Temperatures will be at or above 60 degrees through Monday, and then a weak cold front will drop daytime readings only a few degrees for the rest of the week.<br />
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For several days, computer guidance has been predicting a pair of storm systems -- the first arriving next Saturday or Sunday (Dec. 20 or 21) and then another around Christmas Day or Dec. 26.<br />
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By all appearances, the first storm will bring a cold rain to the Carolinas. All of this probably will change many times between now and next weekend, but the latest forecast track takes the storm across Texas and Oklahoma, and then up through Tennessee and into the eastern Great Lakes.<br />
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There might be enough cold air in place across North Carolina for some icing problems, but it really looks as if rain will be the most likely scenario.<br />
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It could be a different story with the second storm, especially if the first system is able to drag colder air into the Southeast in its wake.<br />
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It will be interesting to watch all this unfold in the coming week.<br />
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The real long-range guidance is hinting at a return of arctic air into the eastern United States after Christmas. But this is well off in the distance.<br />
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<strong>Christmas Trivia ...</strong> In earlier blog entries, I wrote about the Charlie Brown Christmas Special and the most successful holiday movies.<br />
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Today, we'll focus on Christmas snowstorms.<br />
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Anyone who has been in Charlotte for more than a few years knows that it's snowed fewer than a half-dozen times on Christmas Day. The most recent was 2010, when a storm system crossed the northern Gulf of Mexico and brought 1 to 3 inches of snow from northeast Georgia to the Charlotte area. Totals of 4 to 8 inches were reported in some of the foothills.<br />
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The most amazing Christmas storm, however, took place in 1989 and affected the coast.<br />
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Very cold air was in place that year, a few days before Christmas. A low pressure system moved up the East Coast and dumped heavy snow from northern Florida to North Carolina before veering out to sea. Charlotte had hazy sunshine and very cold temperatures. It was a different story along the coast.<br />
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Jacksonville, Fla., had its first white Christmas, with 2.5 inches falling Dec. 22 at Jacksonville Beach and 0.8 inches at the city's airport. On the Georgia coast, Brunswick had 4 inches and Savannah 3.6.<br />
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The snow fell Dec. 23 and early Dec. 24 on the Carolinas coast, with South Carolina totals of 14 inches in Myrtle Beach, 8 inches in Charleston, and 4.3 inches in Florence. North Carolina totals were 19.5 inches in Longwood, 15.3 inches at the Wilmington airport, 15 inches in Southport, 13.3 inches in Cape Hatteras, and 2.7 inches in Fayetteville.<br />
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Columbia and Raleigh each got a trace.<br />
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Zero-degree weather accompanied the snow.<br />
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The Wilmington office of the National Weather Service has a <a href="http://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989">write-up</a> on this storm. It truly was a once-in-a-lifetime event.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-73289522034335745122014-12-05T14:38:00.004-05:002014-12-05T14:38:45.589-05:00Weather won't cooperate with ACCIt looks as if part and possibly all of Saturday's ACC football championship celebration and game in Charlotte could take place in a rainy setting.<br />
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Low pressure is expected to develop and move up the Appalachians on Saturday, bringing a steady rain to the Charlotte region. The heaviest of the rain is expected in the afternoon and early evening, as a cold front approaches.<br />
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There could even be a thunderstorm in the mix.<br />
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The good news is temperatures will be milder than Friday. In advance of the cold front, we could see readings approach 60 degrees Saturday afternoon. Those temperatures will fall when the cold front passes, which likely will be near the 8 p.m. kickoff at Bank of America Stadium between Florida State and Georgia Tech.<br />
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The threat of rain on ACC football championship Saturday is nothing new in Charlotte. We've had to deal with it a couple times since the title game was moved here in 2010.<br />
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Once the cold front passes through, the rain will end. Temperatures will drop through the 50s, but the rest of the evening should be dry.<br />
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By the way ... in case you're wondering, the long-range forecasts indicate a changeover to colder weather in the last week of December. That will arrive in time to put a chill on the Belk Bowl, to be played Dec. 30 in Charlotte.<br />
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<strong>More Christmas Trivia ...</strong> The other day, I mentioned that I'd be looking at some interesting Christmas facts in the coming weeks.<br />
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Today, let's look at the most successful Christmas movies, as measured by total ticket sales. Want to guess what it is? No, it's not "National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation." In fact, Clark Griswold and the gang didn't even crack the top 10.<br />
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The all-time leading money-maker is "How the Grinch Stole Christmas," which has earned more than $260 million since its release Nov. 17, 2010.<br />
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Second, with $183 million, is "Polar Express." That Tom Hanks movie off the iconic Christmas book debuted Nov. 10, 2004.<br />
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The rest of the top five: "Elf," with $173 million since its Nov. 7, 2003, release; "The Santa Clause," with $144 million since its Nov. 11, 1994, release. And "Santa Clause 2," which has earned $139 million. It was released Nov. 1, 2002.<br />
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"National Lampoon" is 12th, with $71 million in the theaters. Of course, it was released Dec. 1, 1989, when tickets were a lot less expensive than now. Another classic, "A Christmas Story," is 28th, with $20 million. It was released Nov. 18, 2003, and became a much bigger movie on TV than it ever was in the theaters.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-90239236896646419392014-12-02T16:57:00.001-05:002014-12-02T16:57:27.702-05:00What happened to winter? ... and a note about Charlie BrownThe back-door cold front that pushed south from Virginia and crossed Charlotte on Tuesday morning certainly brought an end to the unseasonably warm weather we had Monday, but it didn't deliver anything remotely resembling winter conditions.<br />
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Instead, we had temperatures around 50 degrees Tuesday afternoon, instead of the low 70s that warmed the region Monday.<br />
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But we'll be back in the 60s on Wednesday and possibly Thursday, then fall back to the upper 40s and 50s Friday. That will be due to another back-door cold front arriving later Thursday.<br />
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Still, we're talking about 40s and 50s as the cooler temperatures, and overnight lows are forecast to stay above freezing.<br />
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That's a lot milder than the frigid weather we experienced in November, and the news is that there's still no sign of a return to really cold weather. Meteorologists who specialize in long-range forecasts say it appears as if we'll remain mild -- with seasonal temperatures and occasional above-average readings -- through at least the first half of December.<br />
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If you'll remember, the catalyst for the November chill was a strong hurricane that pushed into the Gulf of Alaska as a very strong storm system and disrupted the jet stream. Now we're watching another storm, Typhoon Hagupit.<br />
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It's unclear is Hagupit, which is expected to become a super typhoon (a Pacific version of a major hurricane), will push westward and cross the Philippines, or curve north and pass east of Japan. If Hagupit curves northward, it could wind up in the Gulf of Alaska in another week or so, and that might trigger another outbreak of bitter cold in the eastern United States.<br />
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In the meantime, there's no sign of real winter for the Carolinas, and it looks as if it will be at least mid-December -- and, likely, later than that -- before we return to really cold conditions.<br />
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<strong>Christmas stuff (today, Charlie Brown):</strong> Over the next few weeks, I'll add a little seasonal touch to my blog. On occasion, it'll have a weather connection, but it also might be other holiday trivia -- or a list of the best and worst Christmas songs and movies.<br />
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I thought I'd start with Charlie Brown, one of my favorites. The original Christmas special will air Tuesday night at 8:30 p.m. on ABC (WSOC-TV in Charlotte). It'll air again at 8 p.m. Dec. 16, also on ABC and WSOC.<br />
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Next year will mark the 50th anniversary of this special, and I found some interesting facts.<br />
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For example, did you realize that the 1965 TV special was groundbreaking? "Peanuts" writer Charles Schultz and the TV show's director, Bill Melendez, took the unusual step of using children for the voices of the characters. Typically, adults were the voices of cartoons. An 8-year-old named Peter Robbins was the voice of Charlie Brown. Robbins later went on to sell real estate and encountered legal problems a few years ago.<br />
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Some other interesting facts:<br />
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-- While the show was being recorded, the rock group Jefferson Airplane was recording an album in the next studio. Members of Jefferson Airplane came over and got the autographs of children in the Charlie Brown special.<br />
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-- Melendez and others involved in the production thought the show was horrible, and they expected a total dud. They were shocked when the cartoon was met with nearly universal acclaim.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-92116076949666832142014-11-24T13:19:00.003-05:002014-11-24T13:19:46.965-05:00Toasty forecast for early DecemberI know people who want cold temperatures during the weeks leading up to Christmas. They say it gets them in the holiday spirit.<br />
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I also know people who have been shivering this month and are not happy about November's cold weather.<br />
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Here is some pleasant news for the latter group: The first part of December will be warmer, according to just about every long-range forecast.<br />
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The change to milder weather is likely to start at the end of this weekend and early next week, when the overall atmospheric pattern across the United States changes to a zonal flow. Instead of the huge kink in the jet stream that sent arctic air cruising southward into the United States in recent weeks, we'll be looking at more of a west-to-east flow of weather systems.<br />
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That means warmer temperatures.<br />
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The polar vortex will intensify at the North Pole, which will bring the frigid air back to the far north. And that will allow milder air from the Pacific Ocean to dominate weather across the United States.<br />
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The best guess from meteorologists is that temperatures will run somewhere in the ballpark of 4 to 6 degrees above average for the first two weeks of December. Normal highs and lows in Charlotte at that time of year are around 55 and 34 degrees.<br />
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This month is likely to finish among the 10 coldest Novembers on record in Charlotte. As of Sunday, the average temperature in the city was 5.3 degrees below seasonal norms. That deficit decreased with Monday's mild weather, but it will build again with chillier conditions returning for the rest of the week.<br />
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That means your heating bills will be a lot higher than usual for November.<br />
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How long will the mild trend last?<br />
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The long-range forecasts for December show question marks after the first two weeks of the month. Meteorologists who specialize in seasonal forecasts have said that December and early January are likely to be changeable, before a cold snap arrives in the latter half of January and into February.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-49345732809975702392014-11-22T19:55:00.002-05:002014-11-22T19:55:25.782-05:00Problems ahead for big Thanksgiving travel day?A few days ago, we were giving Thanksgiving travelers the all-clear signal for Tuesday and Wednesday. Now that outlook isn't so rosy.<br />
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Both the Europeans and Global computer models are predicting the development of a low pressure system along the Carolinas coast Wednesday, and that spells possible trouble for travelers.<br />
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"There definitely will be a coastal low," National Weather Service meteorologist Scott Krentz said Saturday evening. "The big question is how close to the coast it will be."<br />
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The closer to the coast, the farther inland for precipitation.<br />
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Wednesday is the biggest travel day of the year, and rain will make a mess of things for those flying or driving somewhere for Thanksgiving. Right now, it appears as if the biggest problems will be for anyone headed toward eastern North Carolina, including the Raleigh area, or up into central and eastern Virginia.<br />
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I must point out that temperatures will be chilly Wednesday, and although the precipitation almost certainly will fall as rain, some of the information being churned out by the computers says "snow," especially for northeastern North Carolina and farther to the west in the N.C. mountains.<br />
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I've traveled on a rainy Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and it was miserable. A steady rain turned a trip up I-85 to Richmond into an ordeal.<br />
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We should have a better idea on the makeup of the storm, including its path, by later Sunday or early Monday.<br />
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But it's definitely a new -- and unwanted -- wrinkle in the Thanksgiving travel picture.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-22739127033775463032014-11-20T13:58:00.004-05:002014-11-20T13:58:54.194-05:00Good news for Thanksgiving?It looks as if weather patterns across the eastern United States are shaping up nicely for Carolinas residents during the Thanksgiving holiday week.<br />
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Translated ... travelers apparently won't have to deal with big storms, and those who enjoy a winter-like feel to the air will get their wish on Thanksgiving Day.<br />
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If your preference is for shorts and T-shirts on Thanksgiving, sorry!<br />
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Thanksgiving week will be ushered in with a fairly significant storm system across the eastern United States. Low pressure will move up the Ohio Valley late Saturday and Sunday. A weak cold air damming event could develop in the Carolinas Piedmont and Foothills on Sunday, but it probably won't last long -- especially in the Piedmont.<br />
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That will set the stage for a rainy Sunday, with temperatures in the 60s.<br />
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By the way, the atmosphere will have one element needed for severe weather Sunday -- wind shear. But instability will be lacking, so we're probably looking at showery weather.<br />
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The showers will taper off Monday, and we'll be in a warm sector for the day before another cold front arrives. That means highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.<br />
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The next cold front arrives Monday night, and it will be followed by another front later in the week. By Thanksgiving, we're probably looking at high temperatures in the low to mid 40s for Charlotte, with sub-freezing morning lows. But there are no signs of major storm systems, even for the weekend after Thanksgiving.<br />
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Incidentally, our warm-up Sunday and Monday will sweep into the North. Highs in the 60s are possible for New York and Philadelphia. Places along the Great Lakes that were hit with heavy snow this week will see a rapid melt-off Sunday and Monday.<br />
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For Thanksgiving holiday travelers, the advance outlook is good.<br />
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"I don't see anything that will be a problem in the Southeast for travelers on Tuesday and Wednesday," said Chris Horne, of the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-44957101643101554312014-11-12T12:58:00.000-05:002014-11-12T12:58:18.463-05:00Cold? Absolutely! Record-breaking? No!A lot is being made by weather watchers -- including me -- of the cold wave arriving in the Carolinas later Wednesday.<br />
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For several nights, we've watched national newscasts showing heavy snow and bitter cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Even Texas has gotten into the act, with temperatures taking a 40-degree nose dive.<br />
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Terms like "polar vortex" and "arctic blast" are being thrown around, and you'd almost think we were in the thick of winter. That's not the case.<br />
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First, here are a couple things that the cold wave will do:<br />
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1. <strong>Last a while.</strong> This pattern change will last at least two weeks, until around Thanksgiving. A couple reinforcing surges of cold air will push into the United States and reach the Southeast next week and early the following week.<br />
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<strong>2. Drop temperatures considerably</strong>. We've been in the 70s for several days, and that will end after today. Thursday will be a cross-over day, with highs in the 50s as colder air filters in. A secondary cold front will arrive later Thursday, dropping Friday's highs to the 40s. That's a lot colder than anything we've had for a while, and it's well below the seasonal average high in Charlotte for this time of year -- 63 degrees.<br />
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<strong>3. Bring snow -- to parts of the North.</strong> The traditional "lake-effect" snow areas around the Great Lakes will get a lot of snow from these various surges of cold air. We're talking about upstate New York (from Lake Ontario); the area from Cleveland's eastern suburbs to Buffalo (Lake Erie); Michigan's Upper Peninsula (Lake Superior); and the corridor from South Bend, Ind., up along western Michigan's shore (Lake Michigan).<br />
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But here are some things the cold wave is not:<br />
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<strong>1. A record-breaker.</strong> A few records might be broken, but here's something to think about. The coldest morning low temperature in the first surge of cold air this weekend in Charlotte will be 24 or 25 degrees Saturday. The record low for Saturday is 20, set in 1969.<br />
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<strong>2. Unusual.</strong> "The upcoming pattern will feature a trough in the eastern United States, and that's typical in winter," said John Tomko, of the Weather Service's Greer, S.C., office. "It's just a few weeks earlier than usual. But it's the kind of pattern we always see."<br />
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<strong>3. Aiming at the Southeast.</strong> Tomko said the trough will be strong but broad, rather than deep. What does that mean? Instead of the coldest of the air surging all the way into the Deep South, it will run out of steam to our north -- over Kentucky, West Virginia and Virginia. "Certainly, colder air will reach our area," Tomko said. "But the coldest air will be held to our north."Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-68227113323005597782014-11-10T13:22:00.002-05:002014-11-10T13:22:44.406-05:00As advertised, the cold air is comingThe weather pattern change that we started talking about early last week is unfolding Monday across the northern part of the United States.<br />
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A very strong storm system that battered western Alaska last Friday helped create a kink in the jet stream, and that is allowing an outbreak of arctic air to blast into much of the United States.<br />
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The cold air will reach the Charlotte region Thursday, but the heart of the arctic outbreak appears to be aimed at the central third of the United States. Places like Des Moines, Iowa, are not forecast to climb above freezing for much of the week. In Dallas, where the front is expected to arrive Tuesday, post-frontal high temperatures will only reach the 40s.<br />
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The cold air will trigger an outbreak of heavy lake-effect snow squalls in the Great Lakes.<br />
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And forecasters said long-range guidance from the computer models points to a second surge of cold air about a week from now. The coldest of that air might be aimed farther eastward, toward the eastern Great Lakes, the Northeast, and the Southeast.<br />
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This change in the pattern will last a while -- probably two weeks and maybe a bit more. That will take us into the beginning of Thanksgiving week.<br />
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So far, there are no strong indications that storm systems will form in the Southeast while the heart of the cold is around. And that will prevent an early-season snow or ice event, although there is a chance that a low pressure system expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico on Friday could bring snow to the North Carolina mountains Sunday.<br />
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We said good-bye to the 80s with the arrival of a strong cold front a few days before Halloween. Now it looks as if the next outbreak of very chilly air will mark an end to the 70s, at least for a while.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-60833496849714169822014-11-06T15:26:00.004-05:002014-11-06T15:26:39.107-05:00Still looking cold for later next weekComputer guidance still indicates an outbreak of unseasonably cold air will push into the Carolinas next week, although it now appears as if the really chilly conditions might not arrive until Wednesday or even Thursday.<br />
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But everything basically looks the same as it did 24 hours ago.<br />
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A huge storm system is forecast to develop in the Aleutians on Friday, bringing winds of 75 mph and 45-foot waves into the Bering Sea. That system then will contribute to a kink in the jet stream, allowing polar air to dive southward into the continental United States.<br />
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This is a big change in our pattern, and computer models tend to have problems locking onto a solution. That means you might see a lot of changes in advanced forecasts over the next few days.<br />
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But barring something unexpected, it appears likely that we'll see temperatures later next week that are more like January than November.<br />
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There also are some hints of a storm system developing along the polar front later next week, but let's not get excited about that yet.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-50686925809816550812014-11-05T11:27:00.002-05:002014-11-05T11:27:22.262-05:00Alaska super storm could mean cold November for usThe remnants of a strong typhoon are expected to develop into a super storm off southwest Alaska and then could help bring the Carolinas some of its coldest November weather in years, starting next week.<br />
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That is the scenario gaining favor among meteorologists and computer models this week,<br />
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Some guidance from the trusted Global and European computer models paint a picture of daytime highs in the 30s and morning lows around 20 degrees in the Charlotte area by the middle of next week, in fact.<br />
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How will all this happen?<br />
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It starts with Typhoon Nuri, which was a Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds before weakening northeast of Japan during the past day. Nuri is forecast to swing northeast, into the north Pacific, and head toward the Bering Sea as it morphs into a very powerful non-tropical system.<br />
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In its morning summary, the National Weather Service office in Anchorage said the Aleutians storm could set a record for lowest barometric pressure Friday. Winds in the western Aleutians are forecast to be at hurricane force, with waves of 43 feet or more.<br />
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This is where the forecast moves into the "theory" category.<br />
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Meteorologists have noticed in recent years that strong storm systems near Alaska can ripple the jet stream, causing a big dip from Alaska across western Canada and into the eastern United States. That is the recipe for blasts of cold air to push into areas east of the Mississippi River.<br />
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You can find a write-up of this situation <a href="http://mashable.com/2014/11/04/how-super-typhoon-nuri-increases-the-risk-of-extreme-weather-in-north-america/">here</a> and there's another one <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/04/typhoon-nuri-forecast-to-kick-start-a-parade-of-cold-outbreaks-in-eastern-u-s/?tid=trending_strip_5">here</a>.<br />
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The computer models are picking up on this situation and are predicting a surge of cold air into the United States around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Typically, a pattern shift like this doesn't go away quickly, and this could persist through the month of November.<br />
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Last weekend's snowfall in the Carolinas, interestingly, was the work of the remnants of another former tropical system, Hurricane Ana, which had threatened Hawaii earlier.<br />
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We'll be watching this situation over the next week.<br />
Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-7487678014404712512014-10-30T15:32:00.000-04:002014-10-30T17:45:00.752-04:00Maybe some snow for Charlotte, after allBulletin boards on meteorology websites have come alive in the past 24 to 48 hours in advance of the arrival of an unusual autumn storm system that appears likely to bring a real taste of winter to parts of the Carolinas.<br />
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The approaching system is an early wake-up call for snow-lovers, who probably thought they'd have to wait another month.<br />
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Let's start out by saying that you won't need to worry about shoveling snow in Charlotte. There hasn't been accumulating snow here before Nov. 11 since 1878, according to the National Weather Service.<br />
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But at least some of the computer guidance used by the Weather Service and other professional meteorologists continues to insist that the ground might get coated Saturday in areas not far from Charlotte.<br />
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The National Weather Service has jumped aboard the Snow Express and decided Thursday afternoon to mention snow as part of the forecast for Charlotte on Saturday morning. The official forecast calls for "little or no accumulation," but it's amazing that the Weather Service even has to deal with the possibility of accumulating snow this early in the season.<br />
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The likely scenario is that some folks near Charlotte will see snowflakes mixing with the rain showers at times Saturday morning.<br />
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It looks as if it will be a much more wintry picture in the mountains.<br />
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The storm system is in western Canada on Thursday. It is forecast to push quickly across Canada and then dive southeast, wrapping around a kink in the jet stream. The storm system, which computer models predict will be quite strong, is predicted to across the Carolinas on Saturday and then intensify when it reaches the coast. After that, it might push up the East Coast, possibly as some version of a nor'easter.<br />
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One National Weather Service report indicated Saturday's storm system -- considering the strength and the cold temperatures accompanying it -- is a once-in-50-years event.<br />
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Winter storm warnings are posted for the North Carolina mountains bordering Tennessee, where 4 to 6 inches of wet snow is a good bet Saturday. Appalachian State University has a home football game at 3:30 p.m. Saturday against Georgia State. Conditions in Boone might be interesting.<br />
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Winter weather advisories are in effect for lower mountain elevations, including Asheville. But since the ground is still quite warm and Saturday is only the first day of November, it just seems too early for an accumulating snow event in non-mountain areas.<br />
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So forecasters are hedging their bets a bit about snow in places like Asheville.<br />
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In Charlotte, Saturday is likely to be a raw day. We'll have mostly cloudy skies, off-and-on rain (with maybe a few snowflakes mixed in), cold temperatures and a gusty breeze. Highs might not climb out of the lower 40s, especially if it stays cloudy all day.<br />
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It was in the 80s Tuesday. It seems weird to be talking about snow on Saturday. But as longtime Carolinas' residents know, that's often how it works out.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-91130500738959227862014-10-29T11:44:00.002-04:002014-10-29T11:44:29.821-04:00Try your hand at forecasting winter snowThe folks at Grandfather Mountain are giving everyone a chance to be a meteorologist -- and possibly win an outing to the North Carolina high country tourist spot.<br />
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Grandfather Mountain's ninth annual Winter Weather Contest calls for participants to answer 10 questions and a tiebreaker related to snowfall, temperature and wind on Grandfather Mountain between Nov. 15 and April 15.<br />
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For example, you'll have to guess when the first significant snowfall -- 6 inches or more -- will take place at Grandfather Mountain. Last winter, that didn't take place until early February.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5MH5hQ1xqgYdsUKcyUFndB7Y5Wbxqid-Y5itmMeBiucnzepBkbtdCI0_ngL8-IxqY8rMUkqy4HqVSfsQ3zVJHMesPTAXVKwuoUm7x_qsvtxLuAvHWpGTSwCBeE9z3T65kMAifwSH9J0Tl/s1600/grandfather.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5MH5hQ1xqgYdsUKcyUFndB7Y5Wbxqid-Y5itmMeBiucnzepBkbtdCI0_ngL8-IxqY8rMUkqy4HqVSfsQ3zVJHMesPTAXVKwuoUm7x_qsvtxLuAvHWpGTSwCBeE9z3T65kMAifwSH9J0Tl/s1600/grandfather.jpg" height="213" width="320" /></a>You'll also be asked to predict the coldest temperature this winter. Last season, it dropped to 17.89 degrees below zero. Another question concerns the highest winter wind speed. A gust of 120.7 mph was measured two winters ago.<br />
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The winner will receive a day pass for six people to Grandfather Mountain and lunch at Mildred's Grill.<br />
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Grandfather Mountain, which stands a good chance of seeing snow Saturday (but not 6 inches' worth), is open during the winter except on Thanksgiving and Christmas -- and when heavy snow or ice closes roads in the area.<br />
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"Grandfather Mountain is known for its serene beauty and extreme conditions in winter, so the contest is a great way to share the excitement of this season," said Kellen Short, public relations specialist for Grandfather Mountain.<br />
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You can answer the questionnaire <a href="http://www.grandfather.com/plan-your-visit/events/winter-weather-contest/">online.</a>Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-41598744077394863622014-10-28T13:14:00.002-04:002014-10-28T13:20:02.560-04:00Cold air on the way. Snow? Probably not.Enjoy those 80-degree temperatures today, if you're a lover of warm weather. This might be the last time we see the 80s until 2015.<br />
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A cold front is headed for the Carolinas on Wednesday, followed by the arrival of even colder air for the weekend.<br />
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There have been rumblings in the weather world of possible snow this weekend in the northwest mountains of North Carolina, but that might be a bit of a stretch.<br />
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Regardless, our weather is headed for a big change.<br />
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October has been a warm and dry month in the Carolinas. And if you remember back to the long-range forecasts issued several weeks ago, that was exactly the forecast. We were expecting above-average temperatures in October and possibly into November and December, although those two months would be more erratic -- with some shots of cold air interrupting the warmth.<br />
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So far this month, we're 2.4 degrees above seasonal norms in Charlotte, and our rainfall of 0.86 inches is 2.14 inches below average.<br />
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It doesn't look as if the rainfall trend will change, although a few showers are possible Wednesday when the cold front crosses the region. But the temperatures will do an abrupt about-face, according to meteorologists and computer models.<br />
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Highs on Wednesday will be held to the mid 70s, then the mid 60s Thursday and Friday. Trick-or-treaters on Halloween probably will encounter temperatures around 60 to 62 degrees in the early-evening hours.<br />
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Saturday is when you'll notice the difference. Cold Canadian air will pour into the Carolinas, accompanied by a chilly breeze. Highs will only reach the low to mid 50s in the Charlotte area, and just the 40s in the mountains. Sunday morning lows will be near 30 degrees in Charlotte, which could spell an end to the growing season. Monday's lows might be a degree or two colder.<br />
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Now, about that snow ...<br />
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Some of the computer models have been showing an outbreak of northwest-flow snow showers Saturday in the mountains, but Chris Fisher of the National Weather Service office in Blacksburg, Va., said Tuesday morning that it appears as if most of the moisture will remain north of the N.C. mountains, clipping southwest Virginia and West Virginia.<br />
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Either way, the moisture will be short-lived.<br />
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Snow-lovers will have to wait for another day, it appears. But since Saturday is only the first day of November, there are plenty of "another day's" to come.<br />
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Will we see 80 degrees again this year in Charlotte? It has reached that mark in November a number of times, but 80-degree days after Halloween are uncommon. The odds favor us waiting until 2015 for weather that warm again.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-67882369240401118972014-10-25T21:31:00.005-04:002014-10-25T21:31:46.128-04:00Warm week ahead, but cold snap is in sightYou'll be able to keep shorts and T-shirts in your wardrobe this week, but keep the cold weather clothes handy. It looks as if the start of November might usher in the chilliest air so far this season.<br />
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Our current dry spell -- the longest streak of rain-free days in Charlotte since early October 2013 -- figures to continue a few more days this week, and possibly all the way to Halloween.<br />
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Along with the dry weather this week will be unseasonably warm temperatures. The average high at this time of year in Charlotte is 69 degrees, but we'll be well above that for the next several days.<br />
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Fans attending Sunday's Carolina Panthers' game against Seattle will see 72-degree temperatures at kickoff, and the high will be somewhere in the mid 70s. You can add a few degrees to that for Monday and Tuesday, and Charlotte's readings each day will be pushing 80 degrees.<br />
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Tuesday might be the final 80-degree day of the year for Charlotte, because a weak cold front will arrive Wednesday and drop temperatures back to seasonal levels by Thursday. The forecast for Halloween (Friday) is for mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s, but some of the computer models are predicting rain. We'll see.<br />
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The models agree, however, in a definite turn to colder weather next weekend, and that will continue into the first week of November.<br />
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In its afternoon forecast Saturday, the National Weather Service office in Raleigh said temperatures next Saturday might stay in the 50s. There's a similar forecast from the Weather Service's office in Greer, S.C.<br />
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That means morning lows next Sunday and on Monday, Nov. 3, probably will tumble into the lower 30s in the Charlotte area, which would bring frost and freezing conditions to most of the region. And that would end the growing season.<br />
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Rain is the big question mark. We're in need of precipitation, although most parents probably would prefer that it come sometime other than Halloween.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4086349103307829625.post-45239071163415284672014-10-15T13:25:00.000-04:002014-10-15T13:25:07.446-04:00Revisiting the Carolinas' earthquake historyThursday is the annual observance of the Great SouthEast ShakeOut, giving us all a chance to visit the Carolinas' seismic past and also to know what to do if our version of "The Big One" ever comes.<br />
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The Great SouthEast ShakeOut is held in the third week of October, and it's basically an earthquake preparation drill.<br />
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While the Carolinas certainly aren't on the same sort of shaky ground as California or Alaska, we've had a few shakes around here.<br />
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The classic, of course, was the Sept. 1, 1886, earthquake centered near Charleston. That temblor had a 7.3 intensity, caused 60 deaths, and was felt over a large part of the eastern United States and into the Caribbean. It even caused some damage in the Charlotte area.<br />
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Speaking of Charlotte ... a 4.0 earthquake was felt Dec. 13, 1879, apparently centered somewhere in the southeastern part of Mecklenburg County. North Carolina's biggest shaker was a 5.2 quake on Feb. 21, 1916, centered near Waynesville, which is west of Asheville.<br />
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But most of us have been shaken before in the Carolinas. That happened Aug. 23, 2011, in a 5.8 intensity quake centered about 40 miles northeast of Richmond. That earthquake was felt by many people in the Charlotte area.<br />
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The South Carolina Emergency Management Division estimated that the same type of earthquake that hit Charleston in 1886 would cause a large loss of life and extreme economic damage today. Such a quake is certainly possible, as geologists tell us Charleston is in a fault zone.<br />
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An earthquake drill is scheduled for 10:16 a.m. Thursday.<br />
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According to the Great SouthEast ShakeOut website, a number of Charlotte-area schools and government agencies will participate.<br />
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<strong>Schools:</strong> Bain Elementary, Charlotte Secondary School, J.H. Gunn Elementary, McKee Road Elementary, Vance High and Winding Springs Elementary in Mecklenburg County. Also: Arndt Middle, in Hickory; Albemarle Middle, in Albemarle; and Pine Lake Prep near Mooresville.<br />
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<strong>Governments:</strong> Alexander County; Cabarrus Health Alliance; and Rowan County.Steve Lyttlehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09982910814570901031noreply@blogger.com1