Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Arctic outbreak for Christmas? Scrap that idea!

The computer models giveth, and the computer models taketh away.

A few days ago, the models were showing an outbreak of bitterly cold arctic air plunging into the Rockies and upper Midwest, then descending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.

That air mass threatened to bring frigid temperatures to places like Texas, western Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma for the Christmas holidays. The model showed daytime highs around zero in parts of the Midwest.

But all that is changed now. The models show a strong high pressure system moving generally east, rather than south. That will keep the coldest of the air next week in Canada.

That means the bitter cold probably isn't headed for the Midwest. Conditions likely will be cool, but not frigid.

And it means the 2013 Carolinas Christmas likely will be average. At this time of year, "average" means highs in the low 50s and lows in the lower 30s.

For several weeks, we've been in a persistent pattern.  It gets quite cold for a few days, and then we have a mild trend. Precipitation falls as rain, not anything frozen. If you believe the models (and that can be a risky thing to do), the trend will continue for the forseeable future.

That means chances are quite low of anything frozen developing locally in the near future.


Buckwald Brownpants said...

Moral of the story: Do not trust the computer models.

"If you believe the models (and that can be a risky thing to do)." ---Kudos to Steve for being honest.

There will be no snow, ice, or sleet. Therefore, enjoy the normal roller coaster temperatures for this time of year in NC!

Anonymous said...

warm winters are the pits---

Anonymous said...

If it isn't going to snow and provide us with a winter wonderland or any other Christmas song fantasy, I will welcome our usual boring low fifties. No need to give all our cash to PSNC.

Anonymous said...

Winter wonderlands in NC are rare, so enjoy when it does happen. But, it will be just cold enough to run up a decent heating bill, with air so dry you get a static shock every time you touch something.

In sum, chilly, dry, snowless winters with high heating bills--but no ice storm power outages!.

Abraham Weinstein Rubenberg said...

By the time 12/25 arrives, it will be 65-69 degrees. Be prepared for milquetoast weather. Bank it.

Anonymous said...

But don't let the 65-70 degree Christmas stop the freakcasters.