Arctic outbreak for Christmas? Scrap that idea!

The computer models giveth, and the computer models taketh away.

A few days ago, the models were showing an outbreak of bitterly cold arctic air plunging into the Rockies and upper Midwest, then descending all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.

That air mass threatened to bring frigid temperatures to places like Texas, western Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma for the Christmas holidays. The model showed daytime highs around zero in parts of the Midwest.

But all that is changed now. The models show a strong high pressure system moving generally east, rather than south. That will keep the coldest of the air next week in Canada.

That means the bitter cold probably isn't headed for the Midwest. Conditions likely will be cool, but not frigid.

And it means the 2013 Carolinas Christmas likely will be average. At this time of year, "average" means highs in the low 50s and lows in the lower 30s.

For several weeks, we've been in a persistent pattern.  It gets quite cold for a few days, and then we have a mild trend. Precipitation falls as rain, not anything frozen. If you believe the models (and that can be a risky thing to do), the trend will continue for the forseeable future.

That means chances are quite low of anything frozen developing locally in the near future.