Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Alaska super storm could mean cold November for us

The remnants of a strong typhoon are expected to develop into a super storm off southwest Alaska and then could help bring the Carolinas some of its coldest November weather in years, starting next week.

That is the scenario gaining favor among meteorologists and computer models this week,

Some guidance from the trusted Global and European computer models paint a picture of daytime highs in the 30s and morning lows around 20 degrees in the Charlotte area by the middle of next week, in fact.

How will all this happen?

It starts with Typhoon Nuri, which was a Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds before weakening northeast of Japan during the past day. Nuri is forecast to swing northeast, into the north Pacific, and head toward the Bering Sea as it morphs into a very powerful non-tropical system.

In its morning summary, the National Weather Service office in Anchorage said the Aleutians storm could set a record for lowest barometric pressure Friday. Winds in the western Aleutians are forecast to be at hurricane force, with waves of 43 feet or more.

This is where the forecast moves into the "theory" category.

Meteorologists have noticed in recent years that strong storm systems near Alaska can ripple the jet stream, causing a big dip from Alaska across western Canada and into the eastern United States. That is the recipe for blasts of cold air to push into areas east of the Mississippi River.

You can find a write-up of this situation here and there's another one here.

The computer models are picking up on this situation and are predicting a surge of cold air into the United States around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Typically, a pattern shift like this doesn't go away quickly, and this could persist through the month of November.

Last weekend's snowfall in the Carolinas, interestingly, was the work of the remnants of another former tropical system, Hurricane Ana, which had threatened Hawaii earlier.

We'll be watching this situation over the next week.

7 comments:

James Edgar said...

Interesting...

So what are the odds that while this pattern is in place, a low forms in the Southwest and follows the typical nor-easter pattern across Mexico and the Gulf, and turns left and heads up the Atlantic coast? That would mean SNOW for us!

Anonymous said...

Wasn't it JUST last Tuesday this was posted- "October has been a warm and dry month in the Carolinas. And if you remember back to the long-range forecasts issued several weeks ago, that was exactly the forecast. We were expecting above-average temperatures in October and possibly into November and December, although those two months would be more erratic -- with some shots of cold air interrupting the warmth"

So which is it? A long range warm November, or now this, a long range forecast of arctic cold persisting through November?

I say it all the time, why do meteorologists bother to do long range forecasting? IT's NEVER accurate, and it ALWAYS changes Why do they waste theirs and everyone else's time? The flip-flop of forecasting is ridiculous. I wish I could be wrong this much at my job and still have a career out of it.

Anonymous said...

Steve, wow, an incredbile article you wrote. Clicked the links and investiagated further into these storms. Another wow!

Charlotte is headed for what seems to be rough weather for a while and mabe some early snow. BRING IT ON !

Mark, the person who alerted you to the Wallops Island, VA rocket explosion.

Anonymous said...

I am confused...the article says that by the middle of next week the highs will only be in the 30's but, when you click on the homepage under forecast and look at the 15 day outlook- the forecast for highs the middle of next week are in the 50's...just curious which is correct?

Anonymous said...

Don't worry. By Thanksgiving it will 80 degrees and you'll be swatting bugs. You can then wear your ratty cargo shorts, wife beater T-shirt, and greasy flip flops to dinner.

Anonymous said...

These forecasts are inaccurate beyond two days. Watch how the highs and rain percentages jump all over the place during a given week. A Saturday of sunny shies on Tuesday becomes a Saturday with 60% chance of rain by Thursday. It is all guesswork.

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