Monday, April 28, 2014

Is storm threat for real? And what about Quail Hollow?

Since late last week, meteorologists have been beating the drum -- increasingly louder every day -- about the threat of severe weather and flash flooding this week in the Carolinas.

There is a group of people that complains about weather stories that forecast doom and gloom, and I understand all that.  The critics are tired of having their fears built about bad storms (or their hopes built over winter snow) ... only to have the bad weather not develop. 

This time around, the threat seems legit.  This isn't a localized situation of a few severe storms developing on a hot summer afternoon.

Radar image from Monday morning.
A very big low pressure system that has been cut off from the main jet stream flow is slowly meandering eastward across the United States. There's enough heat and humidity in the South, and enough of a spin in the atmosphere, for severe thunderstorms to break out.

There also will be a warm front in the Carolinas later Monday, and those fronts tend to serve as triggers for severe storms.

If nothing else, look at what happened Sunday in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Missouri. And then watch developments Monday, especially in northern Mississippi and southern Tennessee.

Flash flooding might wind up being the biggest problem from the next three days' bad weather. Regardless of whether there are severe storms, we'll see repeated rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms. The Carolinas have received well-above-average rainfall since December, and it won't take much to trigger flooding.

So, yes ... this appears to be a legitimate threat.

Now, will it have an impact on the Wells Fargo Championship out at the Quail Hollow Club this week?

It looks as if the four competitive rounds, Thursday through Sunday, have a reasonable chance of being played without a lot of interruptions. There still might be a shower or two in the area around daybreak Thursday, but the chances seem good of everyone getting in their first rounds. The next problem would be Saturday, with a chance of showers again. But that looks like a scattered shower situation.

Temperatures won't be summer-like.  We'll be looking at daily highs around 70 degrees and morning lows around 50. It'll feel more like early April.

As for the pro-am tournaments and practice rounds early this week ... Monday's pro-am should make it through without big problems. But any activity scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday looks mighty unlikely.


Anonymous said...

Yes Steve - many of us are very wary of local TV "meteorologists" constantly hyping. WCNC is the worst offender, closely followed by WBTV. WSOC is OK, except for John Ahrens on weekends - who is the undisputed king of hype. Time Warner Cable is probably the best source for calm, factual weather reports.

Anonymous said...

The severe weather potential appears to be very real for Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately our local TV "news" stations have lost most of their credibility over the past several years due to constant hype. Every seven day forecast - 52 weeks a year has some manufactured problem.

Anonymous said...

Check the history on the event, much rain, many times. I'm more concerned on the tournament freaking the deer to where they are more of a danger to themselves and drivers trying to find temporary housing.

Anonymous said...

Utter destruction, flooding, and misery on the way...