Some wet days ahead in early March

We've seen the last of the 60s and 70s for this week, but the computer models increasingly indicate that the outbreak of polar air in the northern United States won't make inroads into the Southeast.

Another strong hint from the computer models: Some wet times are ahead for the Carolinas, especially for the first 10 days of March.

A few days ago, some of the models were producing forecasts of bitter cold pushing into the Carolinas, accompanied by a steady stream of storm systems from an activated southern jet stream. That would be the recipe for a Carolinas snowfall in late February or early March, but such talk is fading early this week.

It now appears as if the outbreak of polar air in the Carolinas instead will be a cool down. Rather than the mid 70s of last week, we're looking at upper 50s for highs on Tuesday, upper 40s Wednesday, and then low to mid 50s for Thursday and Friday. Notice the absence of highs in the 30s and low 40s.

A storm system that is expected to affect parts of the Southeast late Tuesday and early Wednesday now looks like a rain-maker for the Charlotte region, although it could produce some light snow in the mountains. Precipitation amounts look light.

The next system would arrive Saturday, and once again, it appears to be weakening.

The computer models also show storm systems next Monday and again later next week. Once again, the more recent computer model runs are indicating milder temperatures and a storm track that is west of us -- keeping the Carolinas in the warmer air on the east side of the low pressure systems. Translation: rain.

Some very cold air will be locked into the northern part of the United States, however, so while winter's grasp might be weakening in the Carolinas, it will remain a tough customer across the upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and even the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Some of those storm systems bringing rain to the Carolinas could be big snow-makers if they hug the East Coast.