3 storms ahead, but Charlotte might avoid snow, ice

A week ago, computer models were depicting another surge of arctic air descending into the Southeast, followed by a series of storm systems moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and providing the Carolinas with a threat of snow, sleet or freezing rain in the opening week of March.

A lot has changed in the week.

It might be due to climatology. After all, it's almost the start of March, and we're talking about the Southeast. Cold air and snow aren't unheard of in March across the Carolinas, but it's more difficult for such events to happen than in January or February.

And sure enough, the polar outbreak never quite materialized.

Arctic air has poured into the northern part of the United States, adding yet another miserable chapter to what has been a lousy winter north of the Mason-Dixon line. Temperatures are in single digits and the teens across the Midwest and Great Lakes.

But the really cold air has not reached the Carolinas. Certainly, it's chilly today and will be cold again Friday. But highs are in the upper 40s and lower 50s, rather than the 30s. And a warm-up will begin Saturday.

Now, for those storms ...

Three storm systems appear likely for the Carolinas in the next week, although the first -- on Saturday -- might wind up being a minor event. Precipitation could start as a bit of sleet or freezing rain around daybreak Saturday in the Charlotte region, but all indications from the majority of the computer models are that the precipitation totals will be very light.

We'll watch these developments closely on Friday.

The next system appears likely Monday. The computer models are keeping this system north of the Carolinas. That will put the Charlotte region on the warm side of the storm, and it's why the National Weather Service is forecasting highs in the mid and upper 60s Sunday and Monday. Thunderstorms could develop Monday afternoon.

Storm No. 3 is expected Thursday. This system had been exciting the winter weather-lovers in the region, because some of the computer models a few days ago showed a strong high pressure in the northern United States pumping enough cold air into the Carolinas to make precipitation falls as snow, sleet or freezing rain.

Now the trend from the models is to move the high pressure system out of the way. So when the storm system arrives, temperatures likely will be well above freezing by late next week.  Translation ... rain.

Forecasters say the storm that affects the Carolinas on Monday will cross the northern United States and bring snow to a vast area of the country, stretching from the Midwest to the East Coast.  Heavy snow could fall in places like Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York and Boston.