5 things to know about this storm

A bit of snow is mixing with light rain showers Monday morning in the Carolinas Piedmont, and a weak low pressure system could bring 1 to 2 inches of snow to the Charlotte area Tuesday morning, but the main event will be Wednesday.

We're within the 48-hour time frame for the computer models, and that's a point when the models get fairly accurate. With all the models predicting a major winter storm, I think it's time to put to bed any doubts about what will happen at midweek.

That being said, here are five things to know about the winter storm that will affect the Carolinas on Wednesday:

1. Temperatures will not be as cold this time.

During the other snow event in Charlotte this year, about two weeks ago, meteorologists had no problem forecasting the precipitation type. The atmosphere was cold from top to bottom, so anything that fell was snow. It was an easy forecast to make, at least from the standpoint of precipitation type.

This time, temperatures will be in the low and middle 30s during the day Tuesday, and they creep up near freezing Wednesday during the bigger storm. That means the snow will be heavy and wet, not fluffy. And it increases the chance that a layer of above-freezing temperatures will become established mid levels of the atmosphere -- which means sleet or freezing rain.

It's a tough forecast.

2. The timing has changed.

Early Sunday, we were talking about snow arriving late Monday or early Tuesday, accumulating a few inches, and then returning early Wednesday and ending later in the day.

Now we have a better idea that Tuesday's system will have fairly light precipitation, and it won't start until later in the morning. The big part of the storm will come Wednesday, and the precipitation won't end until sometime fairly early Thursday morning.

On Sunday, I thought today (Monday) would be the last chance to get chores completed before the roads got bad. But now I think many of us will have at least the early part of Tuesday.

3. The second wave is the biggie.

On Sunday, there were some indications (early in the day) that the heavier snowfall totals might come Tuesday, with most of Wednesday's precipitation falling as sleet, freezing rain or rain. Now the consensus is pointing toward Wednesday's storm as the big one. It could carry more than 1 inch of precipitation, about three times that of Tuesday's system.

4. The path (track) of Wednesday's storm is very important.

Two basic facts: Areas near the center of the low pressure system will get the heaviest precipitation. And the colder air is west of the low pressure's center.

If you want heavy snow in Charlotte, you want the low pressure's center to track up the eastern third of North Carolina or even along the coast. If the low's path is closer to Charlotte (say, U.S. 1), that increases the likelihood of sleet and freezing rain in Charlotte. And if the low's path is west of Charlotte, then we get rain. Forget that third alternative -- it won't happen.

But the other alternatives are still viable options. That's why meteorologists are having a tough time deciding how much snow falls, and where.

5. It will be breezy.

This is really bad news for areas that get the freezing rain. The National Weather Service office in Wilmington mentioned the possibility Monday morning that between .5 and .75 of an inch of ice could form on trees and power lines. That would cause widespread, long-lasting power outages.

A lot of places will be closer to the .25-inch ice accumulation, which usually causes scattered outages. Add in the 15 mph northeast breeze, and a quarter-inch of ice could be big trouble.