Upcoming heat might not be long-lived

There seems little doubt that we're facing a big-time warm-up later this week, with high temperatures in the low 90s for about five days.

It will be a big change for the region, considering the relatively cool June we've experienced. But there also are signs that the heat won't be long-lived, and that the final week of June might resemble the first half of the month.

High pressure is expected to build over the area this week, and the result is what you'd expect, given our location and the time of year. It'll get hot. Humidity levels also will build.

The heat will build across much of the East this week, with 90s expected up the East Coast, into New York City and Philadelphia.

But several of the computer models are predicting another large low pressure system to form over the Northeast next week, similar to what happened several times in the first half of June. That low would serve to steer more seasonal temperatures (highs in the upper 80s) into the eastern United States.


There has been only one 90-degree day so far this year in Charlotte, and that was in May.  Here's how this June, with no 90-degree days, compares June during last three years:

This year ... (17 of 30 days) No 90s, and seven mornings with lows in the 50s.

2011 ... (all 30 days) 20 days of 90 or hotter, and only three mornings in the 50s.

2010 ... (all 30 days) 20 days of 90 or hotter, and just one morning in the 50s.

2009 ... (all 30 days) Seven 90-degree days, but there were no mornings in the 50s.

Remember back in March, April and May, when temperatures were well above average (March was more than 10 degrees above average!), and we talked about how hot June might be.  This is a reminder that patterns can change. A warm spring doesn't necessarily translate into a hot summer.

It might turn out to be a scorcher this summer, but the first half of June certainly wasn't.

Some hints of a wet winter ahead

I know what you're thinking ... we haven't even reached the official start of summer. And here I am, talking about winter.

But I've received two emails in the past week from people in the meteorology industry, discussing what might be ahead for the winter of 2012-13 across North America.

The consensus is that it'll be colder than last winter, but you don't have to be a genius to predict that. The winter of 2011-12 was among the mildest on record. And if it hadn't been for a bit of sleet on a Sunday night in February, Charlotte would have logged its first snow-free winter on record.

But most meteorologists predict at least a weak El Nino condition this winter, and that bears watching.

We're coming off two straight La Nina winters, with cooler-than-average waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. La Nina winters tend to be dry and warm in the South. In the winter of 2010-11, La Nina was overwhelmed from December to mid-February by another factor -- a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO). That brought very cold air into the East.

But the latter stages of the winter were mild, as La Nina took over.

The past winter featured La Nina and a positive AO.  The jet stream kept cold air in the far northern latitudes, which meant a cold winter for Alaska. It also meant the Greenland Block (high pressure over Greenland, which steers cold air into the eastern U.S.) did not develop.

El Nino winters tend to be chilly and wet in the Southeast. That's especially true of strong El Nino winters. But most meteorologists seem to be talking about a weak to moderate El Nino event.

"Based on what the patterns we are already seeing over the Pacific Ocean, we believe that an El Nino is beginning to set up, and we may have a weak El Nino signature by late in the summer," said Paul Pastelok, long-range forecaster for AccuWeather.

That would point to less-than-average tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean.

But its impact on winter is less certain, since the El Nino condition might be weak. That would mean a good chance of a wet winter, but the Carolinas might be on the battle lines of cold and warm air. Incidentally, Pastelok says weak El Nino winters typically bring lots of snow to New York City, Philadelphia and Chicago.

A lot of it will depend on the Arctic Oscillation. I doubt that any meteorologist expects a repeat of last winter, so it stands to reason that the AO will go negative at times this year. With El Nino moisture around, that points to a good chance that more typical Carolinas winter weather -- that is, the occasional threat of snow and ice -- are pretty much a certainty.

Beryl gave Carolinas a good-bye kick

Beryl was officially "just" a tropical depression when it moved off the Carolinas coast Wednesday, but it caused quite a ruckus with its departure.

The storm had near-hurricane force winds when it made landfall last weekend near Jacksonville, but it lost much of its wind power as it meandered over inland Florida and Georgia for two days.

By late Tuesday, Beryl was on the move, pushing with increasing speed across eastern South Carolina and then sweeping over southeast North Carolina on its way to sea. Its top sustained winds were 35 mph, but Beryl was probably back to tropical storm force as it moved ashore.

The immediate Charlotte area escaped with little impact from the storm. A couple bands of heavy tropical showers moved over the region, and there were scattered reports of an inch or more of rain. But as Beryl moved northeast late Tuesday and early Wednesday, several bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms circulated around the center of the depression.

That rain drenches places like Florence and Myrtle Beach in South Carolina, and Fayetteville and Wilmington in North Carolina. The closest heavy rain to Charlotte was in eastern Chesterfield County in South Carolina and Scotland County in North Carolina.

A look at the waves triggered by Beryl at Wrightsville Beach 

(Ryan Lyttle photo)

My son Ryan was in the area Thursday on a work assignment and said the rain was torrential. He said the radar echoes didn't look that strong, but it rained so hard that visibility was near zero much of the time.

The strongest wind gusts I saw measured officially were 56 mph, at 4:30 p.m. at Jennette's Pier in Dare County; 55 mph, at 6:48 p.m. at the U.S. Coast Guard Station on Hatteras Island; and 54 mph at 4:30 p.m. on Piney Island in Carteret County.

The feeder bands around Beryl triggered an EF1 tornado, with 110 mph winds, that damaged or destroyed about 70 homes in Carteret County.

Rainfall measurements included 4.6 inches near Whiteville, in eastern North Carolina; almost 4.3 inches in Nichols, S.C., east of Bennettsville, near the Carolinas border; and 4.14 inches in Dare County. About 3 inches fell in Myrtle Beach and 2 inches in Wilmington.

Tropics still primed for trouble

By now, we've been through all this.

The Atlantic season for tropical storms and hurricanes doesn't begin, officially, until Friday, the first day of June. Yet we've already had two named storms, Alberto and Beryl.

Beryl remains an active storm, and while it has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression, it continues to dump heavy rain on parts of Florida and Georgia. More than 12.6 inches of rain has fallen since Sunday at Midway, Fla., and rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches are common in Georgia and Florida.

Believe it or not, there is still disturbed weather in the area where Alberto and Beryl formed, and some meteorologists say it wouldn't be beyond the realm of imagination for a third storm system to form this week. Justin Roberti, of Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather, said meteorologists are keeping an eye on the area, which is in the western Caribbean, for possible development.

To be fair, AccuWeather has been talking about that area of showers and thunderstorms for a few weeks and had warned that pre-season tropical development would be possible.

Surprise! Beryl gets stronger

Tropical Storm Beryl is proving to be a surprise this Sunday afternoon, as it pushes toward a rare landfall in a place where tropical storms and hurricanes rarely make landfall.

That would be near Jacksonville, or perhaps up near the Florida-Georgia border, and it is expected to happen late Sunday night or early Monday.

Earlier Monday, Beryl was changed from a subtropical to a tropical storm,as it developed a warm core (center of circulation).

The original thinking was that Beryl, which was meandering with 45 mph top winds Saturday, wouldn't grow much in strength before making landfall. That proved to be wrong.
Fueled by warm water over the Gulf Stream, Beryl has consolidated its center and grown stronger Sunday. At 2 p.m., the top sustained winds were 65 mph -- considerably stronger than the original forecast. That leaves the storm only about 10 mph below hurricane status, although Beryl is not predicted to reach that level before landfall. The storm will be traveling over cooler water between the Gulf Stream and the coast, and that's not conducive to strengthening.

(Update at 9 p.m. ... Beryl is still about 75 miles east of Jacksonville, and top sustained winds are now 70 mph. It could become a minimal hurricane before making landfall.)

This storm is unusual in a couple ways.

Tropical systems rarely make landfall between Savannah and Daytona Beach. The last hurricane to make landfall near Jacksonville was Dora, in the mid 1960s.

And Beryl is the second named storm of the season -- yet the season hasn't even started officially. June 1 is the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The last May hurricane in the Atlantic was 42 years ago -- Alma. That one never made landfall in the U.S.

The last time a storm with winds of 60 mph or stronger hit the U.S. mainland in May was a Category 1 hurricane that hit the Outer Banks 104 years ago.

The National Hurricane Center said a buoy south of the storm's centered recorded a sustained wind of 43 mph and a gust of 52 mph around 1:30 p.m.

Incidentally, the storm's future is also being watched closely.  Originally, the thought was that Beryl would move inland and become stationary. That would weaken the storm to tropical depression status, and forecasters then expected it to be swept out to sea by an advancing cold front.

But some computer models now indicate Beryl's remnants will push northeast, along the I-95 corridor of the Carolinas. If that were to happen (probably on Wednesday), it could mean heavy rain will fall east of Charlotte -- and possibly not very far east of Charlotte.

Stay tuned.  This storm has proved difficult to predict.

Beryl a bother from Charleston southward

Tropical Storm Beryl -- in one way, a once-in-a-century storm -- continued to move slowly toward the Southeast Coast on Saturday morning toward an expected landfall late Sunday near Jacksonville.

Beryl is actually a subtropical storm, because of its structure, but the differences to the general public are negligible. For all intents and purposes, it is a tropical system.

And it marks the first time in at least a century that two named tropical systems have developed before June 1, which is the traditional start of the hurricane season in the Atlantic and Caribbean basins. Tropical Storm Alberto formed last weekend, in almost the same spot as Beryl.

Beryl isn't a strong storm,  with top sustained winds Saturday morning of 45 mph. It's expected to peak at 50 mph shortly before reaching the coast late Sunday. But it will make a mess of beachgoers' Memorial Day weekend celebrations, with showers, gusty winds and rough surf along parts of the Carolinas coast.

A tropical storm warning is posted from south of Charleston down to near Daytona Beach, Fla. A tropical storm watch is in effect from near Charleston up to near Georgetown, S.C.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in Wilmington say they expect frequent showers Saturday and Sunday along the coast, with winds gusting to 25 mph from the northeast. The cut-off line between Beryl's bad weather will be quite sharp -- generally speaking, along Interstate 95. Areas east of I-95 will see mostly cloudy skies this weekend, with a good chance of rain. West of I-95, there'll be mostly sunny skies and just a few showers.

National Weather Service meteorologists in Wilmington also are predicting a high risk of rip currents Saturday and Sunday, especially south of Murrells Inlet and north of Cape Fear. Lifeguards along the coast will have their work cut out for them this weekend. And it won't be a good weekend to head out in a boat, with waves of 3 to 7 feet predicted into Monday.

The National Hurricane Center says that once Beryl moves inland, near the Florida-Georgia border, it is expected to stall for much of Sunday and all of Monday, before an approaching cold front grabs the weakened system and carries it out to sea. By Monday, hurricane forecasters say, Beryl will only be a tropical depression.

1st summer weekend, 1st summer heat

Forecasters are pretty much certain about it now ... we're in for a real taste of summer for the Memorial Day weekend, the traditional start of the summer season.

There are still some hints that a tropical system could bring showers and thunderstorms to the coast by late in the weekend, but the odds are still against that happening.  Otherwise, the forecast is for hot and humid conditions, with little or no chance of rain.

High pressure is expected to strengthen over the next day or two across the Southeast. That will squelch the chances of thunderstorm development and help the heat build. High temperatures, which were in the middle 80s across much of the Charlotte region Thursday, will be pushing 90 degrees from Friday into Monday.

Chris Horne, of the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C., said the holiday weekend forecast depends on the track of the possible tropical system. But if the system were to move westward across Florida, as the computer models were hinting late Thursday afternoon, then Horne said the precipitation would remain south of the Charlotte region.

Right now, Horne and other meteorologists are betting on that horse.  So will I.

And if the tropical low doesn't push northward into the Carolinas, what does all that mean for our Memorial Day weather and some of this weekend's big events?

Speedway events: If there are yellow or red flags at Charlotte Motor Speedway, it won't be because of the weather.  Look for nice conditions Thursday night for the pole events, with temperatures around 80 degrees.

For Saturday's Nationwide Series race, bring the sun screen and make sure you drink plenty of water. It'll be sunny, with temperatures around 90 degrees.  That's mighty hot to be sitting in those speedway grandstands.

It'll be much the same Sunday afternoon, during pre-race activities for the Coca-Cola 600. By the time the race starts, about 6:20 p.m., it'll be in the upper 80s with sunny to mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures will drop through the 80s during the event.

Food Lion Speed Street: It'll be warm and humid in the evenings, with temperatures in the upper 80s.

Piedmont weather: No problems. Expect mostly sunny days and partly cloudy nights through Monday, with daily highs near 90 and morning lows in the middle 60s.

Mountains: There might be a few isolated thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons, but most people will have dry conditions. Expect daytime highs in the middle 70s (higher elevations) to the lower 80s (mountain valleys) and morning lows in the middle to upper 50s.

Beaches: This one is a bit iffy, given the uncertainty about that potential tropical system off the Florida coast. But let's be optimistic.  There could be a few thunderstorms Friday, but it'll be mostly sunny on Saturday through Monday, with daily highs in the mid to upper 80s and morning lows in the upper 60s. It will be humid.