Monday, June 18, 2012

Upcoming heat might not be long-lived

There seems little doubt that we're facing a big-time warm-up later this week, with high temperatures in the low 90s for about five days.

It will be a big change for the region, considering the relatively cool June we've experienced. But there also are signs that the heat won't be long-lived, and that the final week of June might resemble the first half of the month.

High pressure is expected to build over the area this week, and the result is what you'd expect, given our location and the time of year. It'll get hot. Humidity levels also will build.

The heat will build across much of the East this week, with 90s expected up the East Coast, into New York City and Philadelphia.

But several of the computer models are predicting another large low pressure system to form over the Northeast next week, similar to what happened several times in the first half of June. That low would serve to steer more seasonal temperatures (highs in the upper 80s) into the eastern United States.

There has been only one 90-degree day so far this year in Charlotte, and that was in May.  Here's how this June, with no 90-degree days, compares June during last three years:

This year ... (17 of 30 days) No 90s, and seven mornings with lows in the 50s.

2011 ... (all 30 days) 20 days of 90 or hotter, and only three mornings in the 50s.

2010 ... (all 30 days) 20 days of 90 or hotter, and just one morning in the 50s.

2009 ... (all 30 days) Seven 90-degree days, but there were no mornings in the 50s.

Remember back in March, April and May, when temperatures were well above average (March was more than 10 degrees above average!), and we talked about how hot June might be.  This is a reminder that patterns can change. A warm spring doesn't necessarily translate into a hot summer.

It might turn out to be a scorcher this summer, but the first half of June certainly wasn't.