Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Tropics still primed for trouble

By now, we've been through all this.

The Atlantic season for tropical storms and hurricanes doesn't begin, officially, until Friday, the first day of June. Yet we've already had two named storms, Alberto and Beryl.

Beryl remains an active storm, and while it has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression, it continues to dump heavy rain on parts of Florida and Georgia. More than 12.6 inches of rain has fallen since Sunday at Midway, Fla., and rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches are common in Georgia and Florida.

Believe it or not, there is still disturbed weather in the area where Alberto and Beryl formed, and some meteorologists say it wouldn't be beyond the realm of imagination for a third storm system to form this week. Justin Roberti, of Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather, said meteorologists are keeping an eye on the area, which is in the western Caribbean, for possible development.

To be fair, AccuWeather has been talking about that area of showers and thunderstorms for a few weeks and had warned that pre-season tropical development would be possible.


Wade said...

Take a look at the current sea-surface temperature anamoly. The link below is the latest, so it will change in a few days.

Look at all the blue in Atlantic. That is less fuel for tropical storms. But there is warm water close to land. That means storms that do form will be close to land. They won't be as strong, but there will more likely to be land impacts.

Next look at the water between Australia and South America. When there is a lot of cool water there, there is a La Nina. But there isn't as much as there was last year. An El Nino (warm water in that area) is probably forming which means less hurricanes because El Nino makes the Atlantic windier, thus more wind sheer for storms.

And for a little history, the strongest May hurricane was in 1951. Hurricane Able in 1951 was the only category 3 storm in May.