Gulf storm likely ... then what?

The area of disturbed weather which is meandering in the southern Gulf of Mexico is likely to become a named tropical storm within a day or two, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Even though the system might never approach our part of the world in the Carolinas, it will be something to watch.

The storm, which would be named Jerry, is expected to continue wandering rather aimlessly between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Mexican mainland for a day or two.

Then, forecasters expect a cold front to push down from the northwest. The question is:  Will Jerry link up with the front?

If so, the storm will bring gusty winds and heavy rain into the Texas coast.

At this point, it doesn't appear as if Jerry would become more than a tropical storm, and that would be good. When hurricanes are in the western Gulf of Mexico, bad things happen to our gasoline supplies and prices.

One interesting scenario concerns the possibility that Jerry wouldn't make the connection with the cold front and slide northeastward, up the front.  In that case, it would continue a slow drift in the Gulf, waiting for some larger system to provide a steering current.

I read a couple theories today that suggest Jerry might eventually push eastward next week and provide a threat to the eastern Gulf Coast or even Florida.  In that case, some of the heavy rain from the system could become a part of our weather.

As it stands, we appear likely to get a significant non-tropical rain event late in the weekend, as low pressure forms along the same cold front -- the portion in our part of the Southeast.

After several weeks of very, very quiet weather, things could begin getting noisy again.