Some rainy days ahead

It looks like today and Wednesday will be the best weather days over the next six or seven, with a couple rounds of rain likely in the Charlotte region.

Temperatures moved past the 60-degree mark early Tuesday afternoon, and another day of low to mid 60s is expected Wednesday. It's a nice change of pace from some of those cold, windy days we've experienced recently.

We'll see a change in the pattern Thursday. A cooler high pressure system over the Ohio Valley will dominate the Charlotte region, bringing temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. About the same time, low pressure will be taking shape in the Gulf of Mexico, which means high clouds will thicken during the day Thursday.

That sets the stage for rainy weather from Thursday evening into Friday morning. Some of the computer models indicate the rain could fall heavily at times. The latest National Weather Service forecast was for temperatures in the lower 50s Friday, but the scenario looks more like a very chilly rain -- with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s Thursday night and staying there for much of Friday.

Partial sunshine probably will return Saturday, but clouds will be on the increase again Sunday, with another storm system approaching. And that means more rain, probably Sunday night and Monday.

In case you haven't noticed, we're erasing that rainfall deficit we built last fall.  Precipitation was far below average in October and November, but the numbers have been above average in December and January. We still have a deficit over the past four months (I mean, we were waaaaay below average in October and November!), but groundwater supplies are being replenished.

December's precipitation was a little more than a half-inch above average, and Charlotte was about 1 inch above average in January.

What about winter?  Temperatures on Friday won't be too far above the level where we could have frozen precipitation, but a cold rain is much more likely than anything sinister.  Beyond that, there's nothing on the immediate horizon.

However, watch the time frame around Valentine's Day. Computer models have been insisting for days about a possible winter storm system Feb. 13 or 14, followed by another storm a few days later.  After that, it looks a bit milder to the end of the month.