Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Storms, and rumors of storms

We've been waiting for weeks to see a change in the weather pattern across the United States, especially the Southeast.

For several weeks, the weather generally has been warm and dry, with only a few exceptions. The storm track, for the most part, has been to our north, which means we've missed out on the significant rainfall. And when it does rain, as is happening today, the precipitation is much lighter than what we need, to put a dent in our big rainfall deficit.

(By the way ... at 2:15 p.m., there seem to be some radar returns that indicate a few sleet pellets might mix with the rain. But any sleet will be transitory. Today's system is a rain-maker.)

What is expected, at some point, is for the storm track to be pushed farther south, so that low pressure systems cross some part of the Southeast; and for polar air to break free in Alaska and move southward into the continental United States.

There's no definitive sign from the computer models of a major cool down in the Southeast anytime soon, although it appears as if our above-average temperatures will fall back to average levels -- and maybe a few degrees below average -- by the middle of next week.

The storm track also is a question mark.

One major system is expected to sweep across the country this weekend, but that storm is expected to run across the Great Lakes.  The next low pressure system is expected around the middle of next week. Some computer models show that storm crossing the Southeast and bringing the potential of heavy precipitation, but the recent runs have been trending farther north -- once again, keeping the much-needed rain away from us.

Now the talk is about a system that could develop in the Dec. 22-24 time frame, with a storm coming off the Pacific Ocean, sweeping across the Southwest, and then moving across the country -- just in time to make a mess of holiday travel.

Once again, the big question for us in the Carolinas is what path the storm will follow after it exits the Southwest. Will it move into the Gulf of Mexico and then come across the Southeast?  Or will it curve northeast, and move up the Ohio Valley or across the Great Lakes?

Either way, it seems as if we're moving into a stormier pattern, much as had been expected for the second half of December.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Steve, I hope that you do get the heavy rain, as the storm heads up the coast, giving interior NY/ PA heavy snow.

Anonymous said...

Last night the king of hype - WCNC's Brad Panovich was going off the rails about a big storm for us next Thursday. This guy is ALWAYS wrong.

Anonymous said...

If it snows more than two inches at any time this winter, I'll dance naked in it and post the pictures on FaceBook. So there.

Anonymous said...

First of all Brad has the highest precentage rate of any Meteorologist in the South with his weather forecast. He has hit the forecast 92% of the time. With all do respect he does not hype up anything.
I am a fellow Meteorologist in the western part of North Carolina, and the storm system heading our way next Tuesday and Wednesday has the potential to be a major winter storm. Both EURO and GFS has came into agreement on the storm and that is huge. It is very rare that models are so similar a week out, in fact the last time the models did this was Hurricane Sandy. I have seen that one model run today has veered of the thinking of a winter event, it discourages me that fellow Meteorologist seem to jump ship just because of one run shows something different. I would rather wait and see a few more model runs come in before I jump ship. The 18Z run's you have to take with a grain of salt anyways, as they have always been off.

Anonymous said...

More than two inches of snow? LOL. You are being optimistic. Will you still post the pictures if we only get just two consecutive days with highs below 45 this winter?

Anonymous said...

Make sure you understand what to do when that big storm comes:

1) Immediately buy four or five gallons of milk, and seven to nine loaves of bread.

2) Don't drive around if you don't have to.

3) Wear warm clothes if you must go outside.

4) Remember if there is ice, it is likely slippery if you run on it.

5) Saturate the streets with salt and brine three days before storm arrives.

6) Close the schools for a week if you see a single snowflake.

Annoying Buzzard said...

You forgot #7. Glue yourself a foot in front of the television and watch the round-the-clock "special weather alerts" all day. The weathermen will tell all you need to know and do. So don't move an inch from that screen.

Anonymous said...

Storms will miss us and head into the Ohio valley or Midwest. That's always the way it is. Hurricanes don't even hit our region anymore. I've given up and I've got a beautiful garden of thriving cactus plants to prove it.

Anonymous said...

#8 - freak out with #1 because Brad Panovich's freak out meter says so.

KB said...

when we lived in NC (over 30 yrs in Charlotte area), our guideline was "stay up, stay tuned"...thoughts from central Florida.

KB said...

was it Larry Sprinkle who said that? can't remember now -

Annoying Buzzard said...

When the weatherman issues a guideline to "stay up, and stay tuned," you must obey, for he is all-knowing! We won't really know if it is snowing outside unless a weatherman on TV, dramatically standing out in it, shivering, tell us so.

Anonymous said...

I hope that storm will move much colder air southward . So that some parts of the south could see snow . That would make lots of us happy in south.

Anonymous said...

#9 Wear boyish shorts out in the snow to be "cool" and show how "tough" you are...then get pneumonia.

Anonymous said...

Forget it. We'll never see snow this whole winter....an impossibility. Those snow plows will rust and crumble before ever being used again.

Anonymous said...

Forget it. We'll never see snow this whole winter....an impossibility. Those snow plows will rust and crumble before ever being used again.