Storms, and rumors of storms

We've been waiting for weeks to see a change in the weather pattern across the United States, especially the Southeast.

For several weeks, the weather generally has been warm and dry, with only a few exceptions. The storm track, for the most part, has been to our north, which means we've missed out on the significant rainfall. And when it does rain, as is happening today, the precipitation is much lighter than what we need, to put a dent in our big rainfall deficit.

(By the way ... at 2:15 p.m., there seem to be some radar returns that indicate a few sleet pellets might mix with the rain. But any sleet will be transitory. Today's system is a rain-maker.)

What is expected, at some point, is for the storm track to be pushed farther south, so that low pressure systems cross some part of the Southeast; and for polar air to break free in Alaska and move southward into the continental United States.

There's no definitive sign from the computer models of a major cool down in the Southeast anytime soon, although it appears as if our above-average temperatures will fall back to average levels -- and maybe a few degrees below average -- by the middle of next week.

The storm track also is a question mark.

One major system is expected to sweep across the country this weekend, but that storm is expected to run across the Great Lakes.  The next low pressure system is expected around the middle of next week. Some computer models show that storm crossing the Southeast and bringing the potential of heavy precipitation, but the recent runs have been trending farther north -- once again, keeping the much-needed rain away from us.

Now the talk is about a system that could develop in the Dec. 22-24 time frame, with a storm coming off the Pacific Ocean, sweeping across the Southwest, and then moving across the country -- just in time to make a mess of holiday travel.

Once again, the big question for us in the Carolinas is what path the storm will follow after it exits the Southwest. Will it move into the Gulf of Mexico and then come across the Southeast?  Or will it curve northeast, and move up the Ohio Valley or across the Great Lakes?

Either way, it seems as if we're moving into a stormier pattern, much as had been expected for the second half of December.