One of these days, I'll learn my lesson about precipitation totals.
Yet again, a low pressure system has failed to deliver the rainfall predicted by most (but not all) computer models, and I believed the wrong computer forecasts.
While rainfall has been widespread across the Charlotte region today, it has been mostly light. The National Weather Service was forecasting at midday Monday that between 1 and 2 inches would fall in the Charlotte area today and tonight.
But the low pressure system that dumped 10 inches of rain on parts of Florida never got its act together as it moved northward. Much of the rainfall evaporated as it encountered the very dry air in place across the Piedmont for the past week or so, and by early afternoon Tuesday, about one-third of an inch has fallen at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport.
That's about the same total on my home rain gauge.
It's a far cry from 1 to 2 inches.
Faulty precipitation totals are a nuisance, and they're more of a problem in the winter, when forecasters are trying to predict how much ice or snow will fall. Often, thunderstorms erupt along the Gulf Coast and rob the moisture from the Carolinas and Georgia. That wasn't the case this time. Instead, low pressure never really strengthened like it was forecast to do.
I'm a big believer in patterns and trends, and clearly the pattern now is for dry weather. Another low pressure system is forecast to cross the area Thursday, accompanying a weak cold front. The computers are indicating showers and thunderstorms will break out.
But if you're relying on rain Thursday to water your newly seeded and fertilized lawn, I'd remember what happened today.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Sorry! Rain doesn't show up
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14 comments:
Here in Harrisburg, we've had about 1/2 inch so far.
1/2 inch vs. 2 inches. What a shocker Mr. Hype!
Rain is an annoyance whether 1/2" or 2" It was a rainy day today. If that's not enough for you, too bad.
My yard is loving it, thanks.
Don't you know, if the weather forcasters predict it, it won't happen. This is especially true for rain and snow.
So, it the weather man says it is going to rain, plan an outdoor activity because it won't be raining.
I live in Harrisburg near the Speedway. As of 5:40, we've had .94".
We must have had 2 inches in Rock Hill
Ummm..check again. I believe since tues night we have had about 2 or 3inches here in Concord near the Cabarrus Arena.
Ummm..check again. I believe since tues night we have had about 2 or 3inches here in Concord near the Cabarrus Arena.
@ the 7:03am comment.........
this was yesterday. I am sure he will update when he gets to it.
Steve,
Looks like you were right after all! It will be interesting to see if the people who called you Mr. Hype will be back today or if they are hiding under rocks this morning. I think someone even called you Mr. Hype? Yeah, where is that ANONYMOUS internet commenter now?!?!
As always, nice work, just let things play out as you predicted next time.
Gotta love weather in the Carolinas! You just never know. What you predicted was correct. Exactly what you said would happen, did happen, just a little later than originally thought. Good work.
We ended up with 2.73" in Harrisburg
Just outside downtown, I had received .8" as of this morning.
I'm sure the airport got none.
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