Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Some forecasters see 'Hurricane Express' coming

By any definition, the early part of the 2011 hurricane season has been quiet for the mainland United States.

Granted, there have been seven named storms, which is a large number for mid-August, but only one has affected the United States. The others were "fish storms," carving out tracks across the open waters of the central and north Atlantic.

Some meteorologists think it's about to get more active.

Granted, some meteorologists always seem to think bad weather is about to get more active, whether it's hurricanes, snowstorms or whatever.

But there's a bit of science behind the prediction of increased tropical storm activity in coming weeks, and satellite images from Africa are also rather ominous.

Leading the band for those forecasting a busy late August and September in the tropics is Joe Bastardi, who is one of the nation's best-known (and most controversial) long-range meteorologists. Bastardi worked with Accu-Weather for years but moved earlier this year to a new company, Weather Bell.

In recent days, Bastardi and others have been talking about an upcoming development in which cyclone formation decreases in the southwest Pacific basin and increases in the southeast Pacific. Some meteorologists tour the "tele-connections" theory, in which weather developments upstream -- in this case, the Pacific -- can point to changes in our part of the world.

The idea is that increased southeast Pacific tropical weather means the same thing in the south Atlantic and Caribbean. It's related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), for those of you who are really into this topic.

Bastardi is predicting seven named storms (five reaching hurricane strength) in the next 30 days, with three to five storms affecting the United States.

Of course, there are plenty of critics out there who are probably armed with a list of the times when a Bastardi forecast went bust.

I'll offer this satellite photo today, showing a line of storm systems moving across Africa, headed for the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Is this a sign of increased activity, and are these some of the future tropical storms and hurricanes of the next 30 days?

We shall see. Here's the link:


Anonymous said...

Don't they say this every year?

ILoveFox said...

Sorry, but the GOP has said that all climate scientists are liars and they slant all of their studies to "keep the gravy train coming".

Obviously, you and the others who are part of this global conspiracy have invested into Home Depot and food products and are just trying to recoup your money.

The next thing scientists will try to tell us is the earth is more than 5000 years old. Who do you think we are? A bunch of fools?

Anonymous said...

Wow only two comments in before the tin foil hat makes its appearance.

Anonymous said...

"Some meteorologists ALWAYS...think bad weather is about to get more active". Yes, these weather-hypers work for WCNC, WBTV, and WSOC.

Anonymous said...

they would know. it's easy to predict the weather when you CONTROL it. HAARP....

Anonymous said...

Got to agree with Joe. Lived in Miami in 1947-1952 and 1950 was a heck of a year. We will have to see what goes because the movement of high pressure areas across the US does seem to be just right to keep the storms at sea. We need rain in Texas and the rest of the southern US and these hurricanes are just right for that.

Anonymous said...

If a hurricane on the order of Hugo (or worse)hit Charlotte,the local TV weathercasters would be jumping for joy and having an orgy!

Wade said...

Joe Bastardi is one of my favorite meteorologists. He is very good. Quite often he tells you to verify the facts for yourself. That is one of the things that makes him controversial because facts are a man-made global warming advocate's worst nightmare.

He also keeps telling us a big global cooling is coming soon, but not exactly sure when. I believe that based on the last 2 winters, a persistent 2-year La Nina (cold water in the southern Pacific), and all the tornadoes in the midwest this spring. A warmer world means LESS tornadoes because there would be less severe storms because we know from experience cold fronts cause bad storms. Warmer world, less cold fronts. That also makes Joe controversial.

Dr. Ryan Maue is another very good meteorologist (and he also believes in a coming global cooling) who keeps track of the ACE index, Accumulated Cyclone Energy index. The ACE is a much better metric for how active a year is because NOAA names storms today that would not have been named 10 years ago. More letters used does not mean a more active year. If you have any interest in hurricanes, you need to check out Dr. Maue's website at

Anonymous said...

Shocker. Bastardi say the hurricane activity will increase in late August into Sept. Anyone can tell you that, it's the climatological peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic. J. Bastardi is a joke.

Anonymous said...

Well played ILoveFox, from your account name to the age of the Earth comment.

Gotta love sarcasm.