Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Poof! Tropical storm disappears

The computer model giveth, and the computer model taketh away.

Tuesday at this time, we were talking about computer models' predictions that some sort of tropical system would form late this weekend or early next week off the South Carolina coast.

Today, it's difficult to find evidence of such a system on the computer-generated forecasts.

Some of the ingredients definitely will be there.

A cold front that is expected to move across the Charlotte area later tonight or early Thursday is predicted to stall, on an east-west line, from southern South Carolina across southern Georgia and the Gulf coast. The computers agree that some type of low pressure probably will form along the stalled front.

But the more recent forecasts point toward a weaker, more diffuse system.

Such is the danger of engaging in what weather fans call model-hugging -- making wild changes in forecasts every time a new computer model is run.

So let's just leave it at this ... a cold front will stall in an area where stalled fronts sometimes help generate tropical weather systems. And it's July, a time of the year when such systems can form. But the law of averages says the system will be non-tropical -- something that produces a lot of showers and thunderstorms.

We have several more days to change our minds on this.

3 comments:

P-Nice said...

You can't always do whats right, but you can always do whats left.

J said...

Any rain-producing system that keeps temperatures 20 degrees below this blast furnace we are currently living in is more than welcome in my neighborhood.

Anonymous said...

I agree, J!