Thursday, July 14, 2011

Enjoy the break ... it won't last

The nice break we're getting over the next few days from typical Carolinas summer heat and humidity will be truly unusual, but it won't last.

OK, I can hear you now, saying it doesn't take a genius to predict that hot weather will return to our area in July. And you're right. It's a no-brainer.

In the meantime, if you're sick of 107-degree heat indices, enjoy it.

High pressure over New England will dominate our area for a couple of days, pushing a cold front to southern South Carolina and Georgia. Incidentally, that situation could provide a hint of what to expect later in the hurricane season, and it isn't good news for the Carolinas. It's a topic I'll write about next week.

Suffice to say the pattern for several weeks has featured a high pressure system over the Atlantic, another high in the Midwest, and a weakness in between. Often, that weakness has been over the Carolinas, and it could be a place where an approaching tropical storm or hurricane could reach the coast.

But that's another topic for another day.

In the meantime, high pressure over the Northeast means cooler weather for a few days. A flow off the Atlantic usually brings clouds, and that could happen Friday and part of Saturday. If we get socked into a low overcast situation Friday, high temperatures might not escape the upper 70s.

By later in the weekend, the Atlantic fetch should be relaxing, which means we'll return to more typical conditions. And the 90s should be back by Monday or Tuesday.

The computer models agree that a huge area of high pressure will dominate the eastern and central United States next week. If the Carolinas are under the control of that high, we'll have some very hot and humid days. If we're on the edge of the circulation, we'll get occasional outbreaks of thunderstorms from weak low-pressure systems moving around the perimeter of the high.

Tropics update: The computer models still show low pressure forming along the stalled front Sunday or Monday. Forecasters say it's too early to determine if that low could take on tropical characteristics.

But you can expect some showery weather early next week from Myrtle Beach southward.


BH said...

West Coasters are complaining about the ongoing chill due to ridging in that region. Seattle finally hit the 70's this month, but after a long chilly winter.