Thursday, February 10, 2011

How about some springtime?

OK, the massive snowstorm has moved away, and we're recovering from the onslaught of flurries that fell in the predawn hours Thursday.

Yes, you're right -- it was what is known in meteorological circles as a busted forecast. The prediction was for an inch of snow, and it didn't develop. Temperatures were a bit above freezing, and the amount of precipitation was small. Only a little snow fell, and most of it melted.

Since I wrote there might be an inch of snow, you can blame me. Guilty.

Now let's move on. How about some springtime weather?

We'll have to wait about 48 hours, but much nicer conditions are coming. And we could be looking at an extended period of milder weather.

High temperatures today will only reach the mid 40s, and it'll drop to near 20 degrees early Friday morning. Those readings are well below the average high and low at this time of year -- 55 and 33. Under sunny skies Friday, highs will reach the low 50s.

Then it really gets nice.

The large trough -- a dip in the jet stream -- that has governed our weather since early December is relaxing. Computer models indicate the new pattern will last at least two weeks, which takes us near the end of February.

Instead of arctic air surging southward, our pattern will be what meteorologists call "zonal." That means systems largely will be moving west to east. Our weather is a lot milder when that happens.

By Sunday, highs are forecast to reach the mid 50s. And then we'll have highs in the low to mid 60s for much of next week, if the forecast holds.

I would discourage anyone from thinking it's time to stick a fork in winter. As we all know, March is a very unpredictable month. It usually produces some warm weather, with a few days in the 70s and sometimes even the 80s. But March also has brought some of our heaviest snowfalls.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting average temperatures for the next 30 to 45 days, for what that's worth.

After what we've had in December, January and early February, average sounds just fine.


Anonymous said...

Areas to our south and west have experienced REAL winter with substantial snow over the past three-four weeks, while we have haven't. So now it's onto even "Milder"? Please.

Mama Jo said...

Anonymous, you do realize you live in Charlotte, right? As someone who has lived here for 30 years, I can assure you that we have had a lot of snow for this area so far this year. If you want substantial snows then you're living in the wrong part of the country.

You can't blame a spotted dog for having spots. You can't blame Charlotte for getting little to no snow.

Jessie said...

In Stanly County we had the pleasure of seeing snow fall but without the icy roads and school delays. That's my kind of snow! :) No worries on the "busted forecast". You're still "My Weather Guy". Have a great day.

Anonymous said...

why couldn't the author post a link to the Climate Prediction Center like most every reputable online newspaper or article?!

It's a general lack of effort that the Observer lags behind other better news sources.

Mista Accurate said...

@ Anonymous, February 10, 2011 9:21

Why not use some due diligence and go to the Climate Prediction Center on your own?

If the Observer lacks so much effort, why do you expend so much of your own energy in disparaging them?

Anonymous said... for the climate prediction center

Anonymous said...

We had an inch where I was Steve. You can't blame yourself, anyone that blames you just hasn't lived here long enough. Weather is not easy to predict in this area.