Friday, January 21, 2011

Still expecting a winter storm next week

The chances of a winter storm across the Carolinas early next week remain strong, and, in fact, they grew stronger overnight.

The computer models all seem to be coming aboard with the idea of a low pressure system forming in the Gulf of Mexico and phasing with some upper-level energy spinning southward across Tennessee.

Some of the models predict this will become a strong storm, although the consensus seems to be that the heaviest wintry precipitation would fall farther up the East Coast -- from, say, Virginia northward.

That's because the storm wouldn't have organized fully when it is affecting the Carolinas.

All of that is subject to change, of course.

One thing already has changed -- the timing.

Yesterday, we were talking about a Monday arrival. Now it looks as if the precipitation won't start until sometime Tuesday, and it might last into early Wednesday.

And the best thinking from meteorologists now is that the Charlotte area would get snow at the start, changing to sleet, then to freezing rain, and finally to rain. Of course, we don't know yet whether it'll be mostly snow, or mixed precipitation, or rain. But the advance forecast is for temperatures to climb above freezing in the immediate Charlotte region during the storm.

This is a quick post, and I'll write something more detailed later today.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is garbage. I remember when the most we got was a flurry every year...enough with this accumulation crap!

Anonymous said...

That depends. If you grew up here like I did, this was what happened every winter. I grew up outside of Concord, and I remember missing Thursday and Friday of every week in March one year. Yes, March. It snowed every Wednesday evening that year. That would have been about 30-35yrs ago.

Anonymous said...

I remember that March blizzard very well. I made it through that mess with a broad from Fayetteville at the old Holiday Inn on Tyvola. American Airlines vouchers. Life was good back then.

Anonymous said...

In 1960 we missed school all but three days in the month of March. It snowed three Wednesdays in a row. This happened in Shelby, North Carolina. Shelby is located about 45 miles northwest of Charlotte.

Anonymous said...

With global warming you get colder and wetter winters and hotter dryer summers which looking back at the past 7 or 8 years has been what seems to be happening. I wasn't around in the 60's but I don't remember this much snow as we have had the past few years in my life living in Kannapolis.

Anonymous said...

Dad gum, can't we go 7-10 days without some form of precipitation? We need this wet pattern in spring/summer. The winter that never ends, hard to believe it's just a month old. Why do the other seasons go by so fast, but winter never ends? Kind of like work days vs off days....

Anonymous said...

uhoh, someone mentioned global warming which is going to throw all the rightwingers and teabaggers into a tizzy!

Anonymous said...

Steve, how about posting some links to these models you are talking about?

As always, good reporting.

Anonymous said...

I, too, remember it snowing every Wednesday well over 35 years ago.

Anonymous said...

For the models, you can check out the technical weather discussion from the National Weather Service. Take a look at the long range forcase. It's updated twice a day.

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=GSP&StateCode=NC&SafeCityName=Charlotte