Saturday, January 22, 2011

Oops! Snowstorm looks more like rain

Welcome to Southern Meteorology 101.

Today's lesson ... how a predicted snowstorm can turn into a rainstorm, in just 12 hours.

That's what happened Saturday, as the computer models began moving slightly toward something resembling consensus about a storm system expected to affect the Charlotte region late Tuesday and Wednesday.

A few days ago, the computers were predicting a heavy snowfall Monday. Now, the arrival of precipitation has been pushed back to later Tuesday, and at least some meteorologists are thinking the storm might bring nothing worse than a cold rain to the immediate Charlotte area.

Bryan McAvoy, of the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C., said Saturday afternoon that it's still too early to predict where the rain-snow line will be. But he says it appears as if the mountains and adjacent foothills could get heavy snow, with a few inches falling in a corridor from Greenville, S.C., to Statesville. That would include places like Shelby and Hickory.

He also says "the idea of a rain-snow event looks better than ever."

Translated: We won't have to worry about sleet or freezing rain this time. A glaze of ice turned the Jan. 10 snow in Charlotte into a dangerous mess.

Earlier Saturday, forecasters said the computer models were indicating Tuesday's storm could be much like the Christmas day event, in which precipitation started as rain in Charlotte but changed to snow, leaving a couple inches on the ground -- with heavier amounts along the Interstate 40 corridor.

But it looks increasingly as if warmer air will be a part of the storm system -- and, hence, the idea that rain, not snow, will fall in Charlotte.

Forecasters caution that Southern Meteorology means the prediction could change again.

McAvoy noted one computer model, the European, that predicts colder air will accompany the storm. If that happens, he said, "The heavy snow would fall further east."

20 comments:

Anonymous said...

And we're supposed to believe that anyone can predict what the weather (climate, whatever) is going to be like in 100 years?

Rrrrrrrrright.

Anonymous said...

"Oops"?

Guess it's a good thing the weather guys don't run a nuclear power plant or have jobs as air traffic controllers.

GK said...

@Anon 6:58pm

Yeah, because the folks who work at nuclear power plants and as air traffic controllers have to predict things in their jobs.

Anonymous said...

These are the same models that completely missed the 7" of snow on the coast today...

Anonymous said...

GFS is on its day 3 vacation. Look forward to it being back to the coast and colder soon... Euro still the best most consistent model in my opinion.

Anonymous said...

This is why I can't stand watching local news stations. A model will indicate the very slightest possibility of snow a week away, and the news stations will make it sound like a blizzard is brewing for the entire week leading up to what will more than likely be rain. All to increase viewers and revenue from advertising.

Anonymous said...

No offense Steve, but I posted right after the 12z GFS run 8 hours ago that this was a cold hard rainmaker....

Anonymous said...

Oh, I do agree the Euro is better. Even that is showing too warm for snow right now.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the latest update. No complaints here.

Anonymous said...

Steve,
This column predicting what is going to happen 3-4 days out is a joke. Anyone that has lived in this state all their life knows that it is almost impossible to predict winter weather more than 24 hours out. I feel it is very irresponsible for anyone to put out a story stating "a snow storm is coming" and then the next day change it to "oops, rain. Stick to writing about something you know, nothing.

Anonymous said...

Its all about ratings folks. The weather goofs talking snow here brings in the viewers. I can't believe they allowed to get away with this..unbelievable.

Anonymous said...

Steve I want to ask you a serious question.

Are you a registered sex offender?

Jill said...

I am so disappointed! I was already making plans to visit the parents and play in the snow.

Anonymous said...

Another dumbass person from Ohio polluting North Carolina

Anonymous said...

I think i need to become a weatherman...you can be constantly wrong and still keep your job.

Anonymous said...

@anon January 22, 2011 9:57 PM.
"Anyone that has lived in this state all their life knows that it is almost impossible to predict winter weather more than 24 hours out."

Everyone says that everywhere. There is nothing unique about NC weather that makes it more unpredictable than the weather in every other state. (Possible exception being San Diego, CA, which typically has a consistently narrower temp range for them to guess within).

Mark said...

"And we're supposed to believe that anyone can predict what the weather (climate, whatever) is going to be like in 100 years?"
Climate and weather are two different things. While weather prediction is difficult, climate is more predictable. You predict the climate all the time: It's going to be warmer in summer than in winter.
Further, scientists have been successfully predicting climate since 1988.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/weather-forecasts-vs-climate-models-predictions-intermediate.htm

Anonymous said...

It is kind of sad that people get so angry! Weather is science. This will not be accurate, not even half of the time! To the idiot who wrote "Guess it's a good thing the weather guys don't run a nuclear power plant or have jobs as air traffic controllers" WHAT? Since the weather guys control the weather right?

Guess it's a good thing half of you that commented on here aren't school teachers!

NC_Native said...

They couldn't even get the rain forecast right. It hardly sprinkled today.

weather said...

weather forecast gfs

rain snow maps