Oops! Snowstorm looks more like rain

Welcome to Southern Meteorology 101.

Today's lesson ... how a predicted snowstorm can turn into a rainstorm, in just 12 hours.

That's what happened Saturday, as the computer models began moving slightly toward something resembling consensus about a storm system expected to affect the Charlotte region late Tuesday and Wednesday.

A few days ago, the computers were predicting a heavy snowfall Monday. Now, the arrival of precipitation has been pushed back to later Tuesday, and at least some meteorologists are thinking the storm might bring nothing worse than a cold rain to the immediate Charlotte area.

Bryan McAvoy, of the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C., said Saturday afternoon that it's still too early to predict where the rain-snow line will be. But he says it appears as if the mountains and adjacent foothills could get heavy snow, with a few inches falling in a corridor from Greenville, S.C., to Statesville. That would include places like Shelby and Hickory.

He also says "the idea of a rain-snow event looks better than ever."

Translated: We won't have to worry about sleet or freezing rain this time. A glaze of ice turned the Jan. 10 snow in Charlotte into a dangerous mess.

Earlier Saturday, forecasters said the computer models were indicating Tuesday's storm could be much like the Christmas day event, in which precipitation started as rain in Charlotte but changed to snow, leaving a couple inches on the ground -- with heavier amounts along the Interstate 40 corridor.

But it looks increasingly as if warmer air will be a part of the storm system -- and, hence, the idea that rain, not snow, will fall in Charlotte.

Forecasters caution that Southern Meteorology means the prediction could change again.

McAvoy noted one computer model, the European, that predicts colder air will accompany the storm. If that happens, he said, "The heavy snow would fall further east."