Still expecting a winter storm next week

The chances of a winter storm across the Carolinas early next week remain strong, and, in fact, they grew stronger overnight.

The computer models all seem to be coming aboard with the idea of a low pressure system forming in the Gulf of Mexico and phasing with some upper-level energy spinning southward across Tennessee.

Some of the models predict this will become a strong storm, although the consensus seems to be that the heaviest wintry precipitation would fall farther up the East Coast -- from, say, Virginia northward.

That's because the storm wouldn't have organized fully when it is affecting the Carolinas.

All of that is subject to change, of course.

One thing already has changed -- the timing.

Yesterday, we were talking about a Monday arrival. Now it looks as if the precipitation won't start until sometime Tuesday, and it might last into early Wednesday.

And the best thinking from meteorologists now is that the Charlotte area would get snow at the start, changing to sleet, then to freezing rain, and finally to rain. Of course, we don't know yet whether it'll be mostly snow, or mixed precipitation, or rain. But the advance forecast is for temperatures to climb above freezing in the immediate Charlotte region during the storm.

This is a quick post, and I'll write something more detailed later today.