Another round of winter weather

The last of the Jan. 10 snow and ice has melted finally, and now the weather computer models are predicting another bout of frozen precipitation early next week.

The various computer-generated forecasts used by meteorologists to predict the weather were pretty much in agreement leading up to the Jan. 10 storm, but that's not the case this time.

The next system falls pretty much in line with the typical Southern winter storm -- difficult to predict in advance.

The system is expected to form in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and cross the Southeast, in some fashion, either Monday or Tuesday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build over New England, pumping cold air into the Carolinas.

And as all of you who have spent one or more winters in the Carolinas know, a Gulf storm and a New England high are the ingredients for problems.

But get a load of these varying predictions for the system:

GFS (Global) model ... It calls for a quick-hitting storm, with precipitation arriving Monday afternoon and leaving by early Tuesday morning. That would mean not a lot of precipitation, but the Global model sees most of it falling as snow, sleet and freezing rain.

ECMWF (European) model ... This forecast keeps the storm system pretty far off the Carolinas coast and predicts the New England high won't be quite as strong as some other forecasts. That means much of the precipitation would remain south and east of Charlotte, and temperatures might warm enough for rain to be a part of the mix.

GEM (Canadian) model ... This model predicts a longer-lasting storm, with precipitation falling into Tuesday, and with plenty of cold air.

All three models show some amount of snow, sleet or freezing rain for the Charlotte area, but there are big differences in how much falls, and when.

The major private meteorological companies are hedging their bets, understandably. Accu-Weather predicts rain and snow. The Weather Channel forecasts a light wintry mix Monday, changing to rain Tuesday.

Scott Krentz, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C., said it's not a case of picking one model and going with it every time.

"You weigh how the model has done recently, but you also have to factor in climatology and other issues," Krentz said. "There's a lot that goes into it."

Krentz didn't even want to hazard a guess as to what will happen next week. He says he's waiting for the models to reach some sort of consensus.

It could be the weekend, perhaps late in the weekend, before that happens.

That gives us lots of time to replenish the supplies of ice-melting compound, bread and milk.