8 inches, or 2 inches plus ice?

The computer models and meteorologists are in rare agreement that a storm system will turn the start of the work week Monday into a first-class mess in the Carolinas.

If you're of the belief that a 100 percent lock-sure forecast of snow or ice means it won't happen, suit yourself.

The rest of you might want to plan ahead for a messy Monday.

All of the computer models -- the GFS, European, and so on -- predict a low pressure system developing this weekend in the western Gulf of Mexico. That system is expected to track across the northern Gulf and then either head off the Carolinas coast and curve up the coast.

Either way, the Carolinas, especially the Piedmont, figure to be in the crosshair of the frozen precipitation. And once it falls, the frozen stuff might not disappear for a while (we'll deal with that issue later).

First, the customary caution ... the storm system responsible for this mess hasn't actually formed yet. So forecasts can change dramatically over the next few days. But the current thinking is that precipitation will move into the Charlotte area sometime shortly after midnight Sunday, probably in the form of snow.

And it will be around Monday evening or maybe early Tuesday before it ends.

Anthony Sturey, of the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C., has produced a graphic that shows the heaviest snow and sleet accumulations in a band from Gaffney, S.C., over to western Union County. It includes the Charlotte area, and we're talking about 7 1/2 to 8 1/2 inches.

Relax! Sturey says that Armageddon-like forecast is preliminary. "these are very preliminary snow estimates," he says.

I've seen other forecasts from private meteorologists of 2 to 4 inches, with quite a bit of sleet and freezing rain on top. They think the precipitation will start as snow, then change to sleet and freezing rain by Monday afternoon.

It probably will be Sunday morning before we have a really good idea on the timing and the totals. But it's also important to mention that this storm will precede another blast of very cold air later next week.

We could be looking at single-digit morning temperatures next Friday and Saturday in the Charlotte region, with daytime highs not climbing above the mid 30s. The cold air next week will delay the melting of whatever falls Monday and will present black ice and re-freezing problems Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

More to come ...