Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Cold air on the way. Snow? Probably not.

Enjoy those 80-degree temperatures today, if you're a lover of warm weather. This might be the last time we see the 80s until 2015.

A cold front is headed for the Carolinas on Wednesday, followed by the arrival of even colder air for the weekend.

There have been rumblings in the weather world of possible snow this weekend in the northwest mountains of North Carolina, but that might be a bit of a stretch.

Regardless, our weather is headed for a big change.

October has been a warm and dry month in the Carolinas. And if you remember back to the long-range forecasts issued several weeks ago, that was exactly the forecast.  We were expecting above-average temperatures in October and possibly into November and December, although those two months would be more erratic -- with some shots of cold air interrupting the warmth.

So far this month, we're 2.4 degrees above seasonal norms in Charlotte, and our rainfall of 0.86 inches is 2.14 inches below average.

It doesn't look as if the rainfall trend will change, although a few showers are possible Wednesday when the cold front crosses the region. But the temperatures will do an abrupt about-face, according to meteorologists and computer models.

Highs on Wednesday will be held to the mid 70s, then the mid 60s Thursday and Friday. Trick-or-treaters on Halloween probably will encounter temperatures around 60 to 62 degrees in the early-evening hours.

Saturday is when you'll notice the difference. Cold Canadian air will pour into the Carolinas, accompanied by a chilly breeze. Highs will only reach the low to mid 50s in the Charlotte area, and just the 40s in the mountains. Sunday morning lows will be near 30 degrees in Charlotte, which could spell an end to the growing season. Monday's lows might be a degree or two colder.

Now, about that snow ...

Some of the computer models have been showing an outbreak of northwest-flow snow showers Saturday in the mountains, but Chris Fisher of the National Weather Service office in Blacksburg, Va., said Tuesday morning that it appears as if most of the moisture will remain north of the N.C. mountains, clipping southwest Virginia and West Virginia.

Either way, the moisture will be short-lived.

Snow-lovers will have to wait for another day, it appears. But since Saturday is only the first day of November, there are plenty of "another day's" to come.

Will we see 80 degrees again this year in Charlotte?  It has reached that mark in November a number of times, but 80-degree days after Halloween are uncommon. The odds favor us waiting until 2015 for weather that warm again.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the info. The eagle has left the nest and is headed NW. Any news on whether the purple elephant will appear by noon?

Anonymous said...

"This might be the last time we see the 80s until 2015."


"...our weather is headed for a big change."


"Will we see 80 degrees again this year in Charlotte? The odds favor us waiting until 2015 for weather that warm again."

I'm cautiously optimistic about this. For those of us who are sick of heat, humidity, mosquitoes, gnats, people with ugly legs who have no business wearing shorts, and other assorted summertime infestations, cold weather will be a blessing.

Winter is on its way. It is supposed to be cold. Winter can't get here soon enough.

James Edgar said...

Anon 2:45 - don't forget about people wearing flip-flops that have finger-toes and haven't used lotion since the Carter Administration.

But yes, it's past time. Even my wife, who loves warm weather but also likes autumn, keeps asking me when is she ever going to get to break out her newly-expanded hoodie collection. I'm more than ready for the need to put something else on the bed besides a sheet and bedspread, and need an excuse to use the fireplace. Bring on the winter chill. :-)

H Schutte said...

How many 80s did we get this month? Is this a record? I don't remember thois many 80s in October.

Anonymous said...

H Schutte In 2010 my A/C unit died. I specifically remember way too many 80 degree days in October that year. It was like rubbing salt into the wound. So if not more than this year, at the least just as many.

And I am SICK and TIRED of this friggin' heat! In my perfect world temps would be low 42 high 57 every day of the year, with a short cold snap for snow in the winter.