Sunday, November 10, 2013

Cold is definitely coming ... snow still in forecast

The computer models continue to paint a portrait of mid-January weather around the middle of this week for the Carolinas, and that will include the possibility of snow.

Before we get to the snow, let's get one thing clear.  It will be cold from Wednesday into Friday or Saturday. Very cold.  January cold.

Chances of accumulating snow in places like Charlotte are almost zero, but there remains a chance that we'll see some snow showers in the area early Wednesday. Considering this is the first half of November, it's a very strange forecast.

There is a higher chance of accumulating snow not far northwest of Charlotte. In the morning meteorological discussion, Rodney Hinson of the National Weather Service office in Greer said the model consensus seems to indicate an inch of snow in the mountains and even the foothills.

Basically, here's what will happen.

A very deep trough will move into the eastern United States. A cold front is forecast to push through the region late Tuesday, setting the stage for arctic air to pour into the Carolinas and most of the rest of the East.  The models indicate some form of low pressure will form along or near the front, and that would be the snow-maker.

But there are questions.  How strong will the low be?  How much precipitation?

As Hinson wrote in Sunday morning's discuss, "It should be said that this is an atypical system in an atypical time of year for heavy snowfall. Therefore, excitement should remain tempered until a better consensus on amount and placement of precipitation can be reached."

So we'll keep an eye on things, and even if climatological normalcy takes over, and there isn't any snow in our region, it still is a threat. And it gives snow-lovers a little something to whet their appetite about, as we move closer to the start of real winter.

Regardless of the snow, the temperatures will be unseasonably cold.  Don't be surprised if Wednesday's high temperatures don't climb above the low 40s.  It could be next weekend before Charlotte is even remotely close to 60 degrees again.

Stay tuned.

17 comments:

Panic Brad Panic said...

A good CYA forecast...it may...or may not snow.

Anonymous said...

Not his forecast......national weather service bimbo panic dude.

TC said...

Steve, thanks for the article. I always enjoy reading your column - particularly in the fall and winter. Even though I'm older I always experience a child-like excitement when cold weather funnels it's way into Charlotte and always maintain a hope that we will see some "real" snow. I'm not sure why people who only ever criticize your articles continue to read them. Keep it up.

Anonymous said...

Agree with TC. Love your column, Steve. I guess some people will complain or make snarky comments about anything.

Archiguy said...

TC - The people that constantly gripe about the weather forecasts are also the ones who are still pretty sure the earth is flat and Adam and Eve rode dinosaurs around the Garden of Eden.

I think it's fascinating how these super-computer crunched long range forecasts are derived, how they differ from each other, and how their accuracy increases over time as computer power grows and the models become more sophisticated.

Of course, I've been a big believer in the round-earth theory for some time as well. Graduating from high school will do that for you.

Keep 'em coming Steve. We're not all mental midgets around here.

Garth Vader said...

Al Gore invented this snow.

Anonymous said...

More uninformed arrogant vitriol from Archiclown.

But, yes, let's keep the weather blog coming.

Anonymous said...

The people that constantly worship weathermen and computer models, like Archigirl, are also the ones who believe in Adam and Steve. Earning her GED will do that.

Anonymous said...

This is a weather blog for heaven's sake...why don't you trolls find another site to post your dribble.

Snuffy said...

Well it's been a good stretch of warm nice weather. I hate cold and snow, probably due in part to my mother hating the snow when I was an infant. I actually get so nervous I get sick and cannot eat or sleep when the chance of snow happens. We're all different, but I'll be so glad when next spring arrives and the threat of cold snowy weather goes away!

Anonymous said...

OMG - there may be a flake of snow. It's time for the local TV news hypers to give us full team coverage of this epic event.

Anonymous said...

It appears that some of you have lost your inner child, or perhaps have pushed your inner child so far down to make way for cynical, snarky, mean,sarcastic,and thoughtless comments. . . . .

Anonymous said...

So for those of you making snarky and mean comments, how is Mom's basement? Is it getting cold down there yet?

Snarky Meanie said...

Hey Annon 7:19 PM,

It's "post your drivel," not " post your dribble." If you are going to strike back at all the meanies here, you should know the correct words to employ.

KathyS said...

Any of you trolls want to retract your gabage since IT DID SNOW?!?! We love you, Steve!

Meanie Troll said...

Look how happy Steve's groupies are. KathyS loves him. Having the power (not lucky guessing) to make it snow (even if only a few flakes) has its rewards!

Mean, Snarky, Troll said...

So for those groupies offended by snarky and mean comments (especially Anonymous 12:00 PM), how is daddy's outhouse? Is it getting stinky in there yet?