Thursday, July 25, 2013

First take on Dorian ...

Tropical Storm Dorian has been a threat only to fish so far, as it remains far out in the Atlantic Ocean.  It will be a few days before the storm nears any land masses, and by that time, it might have dissipated.

Most of the computer models take Dorian on a west-northwest track for the next couple days, but its future is really a question mark.

Working in favor of the storm's development ... Dorian is working with a moist atmosphere, and there is little wind shear to disrupt its organization.

Working against development ... Marginal surface sea temperatures (although Dorian will be moving into warmer waters later today and Friday), and the forecast of stronger wind shear and drier air later in the week.

Historically, most storms forming in the Cape Verde area this early in the year curve away from the Southeast coast, and that's entirely possible this time.  For the next few days, Dorian will be steered to the west, along the south side of a high pressure ridge in the Atlantic.

A trough is forecast to develop along the East Coast this weekend.  If the trough is deep, it would capture Dorian during the weekend and steer the storm northward, away from the United States. But there are some forecasts of a weak trough. In that case, the storm would continue westward, possibly threatening the Bahamas and the Florida coast by early next week.

As you all know, it's far too early to make a solid prediction.  But we should have a much better idea by late Friday or Saturday.  By then, the "wild" guesses will turned into "educated" guesses.

1 comments:

JD Shaw said...

"As you all know, it's far too early to make a solid prediction. But we should have a much better idea by late Friday or Saturday. By then, the 'wild' guesses will turned into "educated" guesses."

Thank you Steve, for being honest and reasonable.

Hype-man Brad Panicovich is already calling for evacuations and bread and milk runs.