Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Don't expect much improvement today

I could be wrong about this, and I hope I'm wrong.

But if you're planning your wardrobe for Tuesday, expect Charlotte's weather to be an awful lot like Monday's.

You might have heard forecasts for some clearing Tuesday afternoon, but chances are any clearing in the immediate Charlotte area won't happen until shortly before sunset. In other words, we'll remain in the gloom for another day.

We're still locked in a cold air wedge, and those conditions are very stubborn to break down. Weather computer models aren't very good are predicting when the wedges will end, tending to kill them off too early.

Such was the case Monday, when the models -- and some forecasts -- called for partial sunshine to return by late morning in Charlotte. Then that forecast became afternoon, and now some predictions are saying late afternoon. That sounds right.

The wedge will dissipate from the west, with the mountains and western South Carolina being the first to see the sun. But heavy, cold, damp air has piled up against the mountains, covering the Piedmont. And it will take quite a while for warmer air to mix down and scour out the clouds.

Temperatures likely will rise from the upper 40s Tuesday morning to the upper 50s by afternoon. But that's more than 15 degrees below the average high for this time of year.

There will be a reward after all this, though.

Partly to mostly sunny skies are likely Wednesday, with highs climbing back near average for this time of year (mid 70s). A weak cold front will cross the region Wednesday night, so Thursday's highs will be a few degrees cooler, in the upper 60s. But sunshine will return.

Then a real warm-up commences for the weekend, with highs in the low to mid 70s Friday and Saturday, climbing to the upper 70s for Sunday and Monday.


A pleased reader... said...

Always love reading your stuff Steve. Keep up the great work! You are a realistic weather man. I think people truly respect that.

Anonymous said...

Not really ready for this chilly weather just yet! Thanks for the blog Steve. Always insightful.

Anonymous said...

So why do computer models always predict the end of the wedges before they really break up? One would think that the models take historical data into account and they would get better at predicting these things. Oh well, the cold doesn't bother me at all. I love it. This is great football weather!

Anonymous said...

This is the number one thing I hate about living here. I hate how this pretty much happens every single time it rains from September to May. And it happens so much, you'd think the computer models could figure it out. It's never really predicted, it just happens. One day you'll see high of 71 and rain, the next morning it's changed to high of 54 and rain. Then it's predicted to be gone the next day but you can pretty much bet your life savings it won't be until the day after. It's a 3 day event every time. Not sure why the TV weathermen don't just say, no this thing will be here for a 3rd day and should clear tomorrow instead of trying to convince everyone it will be clear and 65 by the afternoon. I hate the wedge. Hate it.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous- got a word for you- MOVE. Glad to see the cooler weather- can hardly wait for it to come to stay!

Anonymous said...

There's always someone who will say something to the effect of "If you don't like it here, move." Sure, just forget the job, forget the home and schools and every other thing and just pack up and leave cause you don't like the weather. Right.

Unknown said...

if you're planning your wardrobe for Tuesday, expect Charlotte's weather to be an awful lot like Monday's. home wool insulation