Sunday, January 15, 2012

Winter's been put on hold

About a week ago, I wrote about a possible change in the warmer-than-average pattern we've seen so far this winter.

Forget it.

In fact, we might be headed in the opposite direction soon -- to even warmer temperatures.

A series of patterns have conspired to produce what has been a snow- and ice-free winter so far over the Southeast, except for the mountains. We've been locked in a routine in which we have an occasional burst of cold air, followed by slow warming and then several very mild days. Overall, our temperatures are well above average.

The computer models indicate more of the same, at least for the next 10 days and possibly for two weeks out.

A cold front will cross the area at midweek, bringing a slight cool down -- but we're talking about temperatures behind the front being almost at seasonal averages. And then, starting next weekend, a ridge of high pressure will build in the South, and our temperatures will climb.

If the models verify, you can look for at least several days of 60-degree readings, and maybe a bit warmer, between Jan. 21 and the end of the month.

In fact, the models show temperatures climbing well above average in a week or so across central and western Canada, and that eliminates a major source of cold air for our part of the country.

I've seen a lot of conjecture about what this means for February, March and April. Some theorize the law of averages will prevail, and we'll have a chilly late winter and early spring. But all we have in front of us now are La Nina, the lack of a blocking high pressure system in Greenland, and the absence of a strong high pressure over Alaska to send cold air plummeting southward.

This is both good and bad. We don't have to worry about icy streets and sky-high heating bills. But this also could spur plants and trees to bud early, leaving them at risk of a deep freeze in late winter or early spring.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

This warmer weather is messing with allergies and asthma as well! Everybody is having a tough time!

Anonymous said...

Yes indeed!!! My asthma has been very bad this season (esp Nov/Dec), and has been better when we had the cold days and nights recently...we may be in for a hot and dry Spring!

Anonymous said...

Exactly the weather I dreamt of on my way down from Boston!

Unknown said...

You never get the weather correct! Why are you even allowed to write Fiction?

Anonymous said...

Hey Yankee from Boston this is not the weather we like here

Anonymous said...

Well, enjoy it, but don't get too used to this warmer than average weather.

If you think winter isn't gonna hit here, you've got another think coming.

Anonymous said...

We will pay for it this summer. 100 deg.

Anonymous said...

CO - why do you let this guy even write a moronic column like this every few days? It's embarrassing.

Unknown said...

Only one day next week is forecast to be 60 degrees. What is this guy talking about?

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous 8:12 - Why do you bother even reading it and then making a moronic comment? You're only embarrassing yourself.

Anonymous said...

It wasn't a moronic comment not was it embarrassing.. What's embarrassing is a newspaper whose front page includes dumb and poorly written weather commentaries like this, articles on banking that are old news to anyone in banking or real estate, or articles about lighting stoves with spaghetti- or how to remember where your tv remote is- or how to put a green dot on your calendar for recycling bin days.. Evidently the Observer thinks its audience is a) retired and bored b) dumb and/ or uneducated, or c) not working in financial services.. Which is cool.. But, it simply makes for dumb writing and bad reading

Anonymous said...

I hate when there is a link to this blog on the front page. This blog is so informative and clearly written for people who are interested in meteorology. The discussions and comments are usually pretty interesting. However, when it's linked on the front page, the morons show up.

Anonymous said...

Dumb writing? Bad reading? Oh, no. That's not moronic at all.

If you're not interested in weather, don't read it. This blog is written for those of us who are interested. Clearly, there are plenty of people who are because this blog continues to remain active.

I enjoy Steve Lyttle's blogs and how he writes for the average joe who has an interest in weather.

Anonymous said...

Cold and snow haters rejoice!!!!

Anonymous said...

Are there any weather patterns like ours in other places around the world?

Anonymous said...

I moved here from Florida and I knew that if I prayed enough, the weather in Charlotte would improve - so far, so good!

Anonymous said...

" Unknown said...
Only one day next week is forecast to be 60 degrees. What is this guy talking about?"

he said the 10 day model shows highter temps...and it does show 60's tomorrow and then Sat-Wed as 60's..hell Sunday should be almost 70!

Anonymous said...

As Woody Allen once said, "I don't want to be a part of any club that would have me as a member." Get a life all you critical blowholes. Why don't one of you try and predict the weather? While you are at it, look up the definition of "predict."


LOL!

Anonymous said...

Woody Allen once said, "I don't want to be a part of any club that would have me as a member." Get a life all you critical blowholes. Why don't one of you try and predict the weather? While you are at it, look up the definition of "predict."

woody didn't say this- it was groucho marx

Anonymous said...

From the movie "Annie Hall":

[first lines]
Alvy Singer: [addressing the camera] There's an old joke - um... two elderly women are at a Catskill mountain resort, and one of 'em says, "Boy, the food at this place is really terrible." The other one says, "Yeah, I know; and such small portions." Well, that's essentially how I feel about life - full of loneliness, and misery, and suffering, and unhappiness, and it's all over much too quickly. The... the other important joke, for me, is one that's usually attributed to Groucho Marx; but, I think it appears originally in Freud's "Wit and Its Relation to the Unconscious," and it goes like this - I'm paraphrasing - um, "I would never want to belong to any club that would have someone like me for a member." That's the key joke of my adult life, in terms of my relationships with women.

Woody said it. Maybe just not for the first time. Groucho may not have either. I can live with a tie. :)

Anonymous said...

its gonna turn brutal cold/mid feb. and that will b stormy for charlote which= snowww i hope

Anonymous said...

This article is the worst group of words arranged into sentences and paragraphs that I have ever read. It's almost as if the writer ate a can of alphabet soup, then vomited it onto the floor and proceeded to type up the results onto this site. After reading this article I truly wish I was illiterate.

Anonymous said...

Steve, You have been right more than the guys on televison!! I think you are a great weather guy and I love your articles.