Winter's been put on hold

About a week ago, I wrote about a possible change in the warmer-than-average pattern we've seen so far this winter.

Forget it.

In fact, we might be headed in the opposite direction soon -- to even warmer temperatures.

A series of patterns have conspired to produce what has been a snow- and ice-free winter so far over the Southeast, except for the mountains. We've been locked in a routine in which we have an occasional burst of cold air, followed by slow warming and then several very mild days. Overall, our temperatures are well above average.

The computer models indicate more of the same, at least for the next 10 days and possibly for two weeks out.

A cold front will cross the area at midweek, bringing a slight cool down -- but we're talking about temperatures behind the front being almost at seasonal averages. And then, starting next weekend, a ridge of high pressure will build in the South, and our temperatures will climb.

If the models verify, you can look for at least several days of 60-degree readings, and maybe a bit warmer, between Jan. 21 and the end of the month.

In fact, the models show temperatures climbing well above average in a week or so across central and western Canada, and that eliminates a major source of cold air for our part of the country.

I've seen a lot of conjecture about what this means for February, March and April. Some theorize the law of averages will prevail, and we'll have a chilly late winter and early spring. But all we have in front of us now are La Nina, the lack of a blocking high pressure system in Greenland, and the absence of a strong high pressure over Alaska to send cold air plummeting southward.

This is both good and bad. We don't have to worry about icy streets and sky-high heating bills. But this also could spur plants and trees to bud early, leaving them at risk of a deep freeze in late winter or early spring.