Katia -- a real headache for forecasters

Hurricane Katia ... oops, Tropical Storm Katia (it's swung back and forth several times in recent days) has proven to be a real mess for the National Hurricane Center's meteorologists.

Both the storm's intensity and track have proven nearly impossible to predict, and the 5 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center reinforces that.

Meteorologist Daniel Brown said it "cannot be stressed enough that there is considerable uncertainty in the track forecast."

Brown noted -- as have other meteorologists -- that the evolution and future path of Tropical Storm Lee will have a great deal to do with whether Katia curves away from the U.S. coast or plows into the mainland later next week. For days, computer models have predicted the storm would curve into the open Atlantic.

But the models also have waffled on the forecast. Some models that once predicted a recurve are now hinting that Katia -- currently heading northwest and far from any land mass -- might switch to a westerly track in several days, making a beeline for the U.S. coast. And some models that initially brought the storm close to shore have switched to a recurve solution.

If Tropical Storm Lee moves northeast in the next few days, as predicted, it will serve to "catch" Hurricane Katia and curve it northward, away from the U.S. coast.

But the winds steering Lee are extremely light, and forecasters aren't certain when it will move.

And if all that isn't enough, the National Hurricane Center has struck out in trying to predict Katia's intensity. Forecasters predicted a couple days ago that Katia would be a major hurricane by now. Instead, its top sustained winds were only 70 mph Saturday evening.

It's a mess, and it will be another few days before we can say with certainty that the East Coast is safe.