It's not often when most of the long-range meteorologists agree, but there seems to be consensus building on what we can expect from the weather in April and even into May. A number of forecasters -- including the team at Accu-Weather and Joe Bastardi, now with the fledgling WeatherBell service -- are painting a cold picture over the eastern United States and parts of the Midwest.
This would be a departure from last April's mild conditions in the same part of the country. The consensus seems to be that the cold air will mostly remain north of the Mason-Dixon Line, but I think that pattern provides a solid clue on what we can expect in the Carolinas.
First, let's get the next 10 days out of the way. Today's sunshine and 60-degree readings (which are quite a warm-up, but still well below average for this time of year) will be fleeting. Wednesday, Thursday and possibly even Friday will be ugly. We can expect at least an inch of rain, and a cold air wedge will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
Then comes a warmup, starting this weekend and extending through next week, possibly through the weekend of April 9-10. The outlook is for temperatures at or above the seasonal averages. Translated: 70s, and maybe some low 80s. There could be a few days in the mid and upper 60s when it rains, but it looks nothing like this week's 40s.
Then the long-range forecasters see an outbreak of cold air spilling southward from Canada into the northern U.S. after April 10. The theory is that the outbreaks of cold will continue through the month -- and even into May in the Great Lakes and upper Midwest. Occasionally, some of that cold might filter into the Carolinas (as happened this week), but for the most part, we'll remain mild.
The main impact, though, will be the storm track. Forecasters seem to think many of the low pressure systems that move eastward across the United States will take a path along the boundary between the cold air and the milder air to the south. That boundary often will be in the vicinity of the Carolinas. So if all this comes to pass, it probably means April and even May will be unsettled -- stormy at times, with temperatures probably above average. That will be wetter and cooler than the last two Aprils.
And if you're headed north during the Easter break, take a heavy coat. It looks like spring might be late in the North this year.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
A clue to our April pattern?
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13 comments:
Well. You've certainly covered all the bases here, haven't you.
I hope you're right about the cooler air.
Sounds like a recipe for some higher NC mountain April snow. Always "fun" for them
I wish I had a job where I could be wrong 65% of the time...I'm just sayin'...
So...lots of words for typical and normal April weather.
The only part you left out about the unusually cold weather is how this and the over 150 cold temperature and snowfall records from the past winter in the US are still somehow connected to man made global warming. I always enjoy those convoluted and highly inventive explanations.
Come on now...Al Gore's watching you.
Can't wait for that Bermuda High to come and park it's butt off the coast for weeks. Hot and dry, that's right!!
"Wish I had a job where I could be wrong 65%... " that is a load of BS if I ever heard one. It's an insult to those who work daily to precict a forecast so your lazy butt can grab a coat or not. You perfect little world. On behalf of all of the forecasters and mets... pound salt you troll.
The meteorologist I trust the most is Joe Bastardi. Back when he was working for accuweather.com, they would forecast cold and warm spells weeks in advance. accuweather.com is poor on specifics, but great on general patterns. In other words, they know a heat wave or cold spell is coming, but that is about they can tell you. I've learned more about the weather by listening to Joe Bastardi than anywhere else.
When Joe was still with accuweather.com, he had a video in which he compared the temperatures from past La Nina events that lasted 2 years like this one will. The 1st summer was always very hot in the southeast. No surprise, our summer was very hot. The 1st winter was always mild with most of the cold early. The only time that wasn't true was our past winter. The 2nd summer and winter were always cooler than the 1st summer and winter. What that means is our summer won't be as bad but our next winter will be even worse.
Thanks Joe Bastardi! I trust you more than anyone else.
kantstanzya - Although it's usually a waste of time to try to explain scientific concepts to people who insist on sticking their heads in the sand (must be warm there), I'll take what's probably a futile shot.
The weather patterns we've been seeing over the last few years and decades closely align with the computer models that predict and verify global warming. Isolated extreme temperatures and weather patterns are expected, and do not disprove the fact that the earth is warming. Rapidly. More rapidly than previously thought. Glaciers are melting, ocean levels are rising, and the worst effects are yet to come as the salinity of the oceans decrease and once fertile farm belts, including the U.S. grain belt, move north. These are facts - you know, those pesky things conservative contrarians tend to ignore.
I honestly don't understand why it's so important for right-wingnuts to deny scientific evidence, be it climatology, biology, or evolution. It's like children insisting they've "won", long after the game is over and everyone's gone home. Must be some kind of self validation for those with low self-esteem. Yet, still, we continue to hear this ignorant drivel. Nearly every weather article has someone like you polluting the comment section. It's sad.
^You hit the nail on the head Freddy. It usually isn't worth trying to explain climate change to people who don't believe in it. The fact that someone points to a few months being cooler than normal as evidence that global warming is a hoax speaks volumes to their understanding of the subject.
Now, as for the weather forecast, bring on the cooler/stormy weather. Last year, it got hot and dry early on and stayed that way all spring and summer. I basically gave up on my grass.
-Chris
Sorry, Freddy. The selectively-chosen "climate models" you reference can be interpreted as "correct" anyway their followers please. There has been no discernible increase in sea levels (but many shrill predictions about the coming worldwide floods)Glaciers are both retreating or not, depending on where you look, and we only have 30 years of satellite data to track them. I could go on, but what you call established "facts" supporting you position are sadly lacking.
Where's Bill Gray to set you straight?
To put in simply, you are an arrogant jerk, Freddy. And so are the clowns propagating the drivel you cite
Forecasters seem to think many of the low pressure systems that move eastward across the United States will take a path along the boundary between the cold air and the milder air to the south.
Dooh er I mean they haven't figured this out yet?
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