Christmas snow? Let's be cautious

Yes, the National Weather Service forecast is mentioning that word for Christmas Day.

But will it really snow in Charlotte for the holiday? History indicates we should be very cautious before planning a sleigh ride down Providence Road on Saturday evening.

The computer models used for weather forecasting agree that a strong storm system hammering California today will cross the Rockies, dive toward the Gulf Coast, and then move up the East Coast by Saturday and Sunday.

There seems little argument that parts of the East Coast could get a major winter storm late Saturday and into Sunday. If you're planning a Christmas trip to Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York or even farther north, then snow is a good chance.

Roads could be in bad shape later Saturday and Sunday, and the flight schedules could be a mess both days.

Depending on the track of the storm, inland parts of the Middle Atlantic and New England could get hammered. If the storm hugs the coast, then heavy snow will fall in places like Frederick and Hagerstown in Maryland; the Harrisburg and Scranton-Wilkes Barre areas of Pennsylvania; and upstate New York.

But what about the Carolinas? Well, here is your lineup of computer model predictions. Take your choice:

GEM: This is the snow-lovers' computer model. It predicts the storm system will cross northern Florida, reach the coast near Charleston, and curve north. That would mean a significant snowstorm for the Charlotte region, starting as rain late Friday night but changing to snow by Christmas morning. Under this scenario, the snow-rain dividing line could be well into South Carolina.

ECMWF (European): This computer model takes the storm along the Gulf Coast. That would mean temperatures in Charlotte will be cold enough for snow, but most of the precipitation would stay to the south. We might see snow, but not enough for any significant accumulations.

GFS: Meet the Grinch, oh you fans of a white Christmas. The GFS predicts the storm's center will cross the Charlotte area. That means rain, except for snow in the mountains. In fact, the rain could be rather heavy, in this scenario.

Doug Outlaw, of the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C., says forecasters there are leaning toward the GEM forecast, for snow in the Charlotte area. For now, they believe the best chance of accumulating snow would be northwest of Interstate 85.

The forecasters at private companies like Accu-Weather and the Weather Channel are following the GFS. They predict rain for Charlotte.

"It's simply too early to know for sure," Outlaw said. "In a day or two, I think we'll start seeing the models come more in line with one another. That's when we'll get a better idea of what actually will happen."

Either way, Outlaw says, the storm will be a newsmaker as it rolls up the East Coast after leaving the Carolinas.

"Some places up there will certainly get their white Christmas," he said.

In case you're wondering, the last serious white Christmas in Charlotte was in 1947, which was so long ago that even I hadn't been born yet. That year, 5.8 inches of snow fell in the Queen City. There also was a 4-inch snowfall in 1880 and 0.2 inches in 1909.

A trace -- we're talking about brief flurries -- was recorded several times, including 2007, 1998 and 1993.

Last year produced a major rainstorm in Charlotte, but there was a devastating ice storm in the N.C. mountains. Up to a half-inch of ice accumulated in Watauga and neighboring counties, knocking out power to tens of thousands of customers for several days.