A winter of close calls?

Nearly every forecast I've seen for this winter paints roughly the same picture for the Carolinas and the rest of the Southeast:

1. Generally, a mild and fairly dry pattern (due to La Nina).
2. A storm track that takes most systems up the Appalachians and then through the Northeast either along the coast or slightly inland.
3. An occasional burst of arctic air southward -- with the boundary of the cold air stopping somewhere in the region of the Carolinas. Most of the time, it'll stall to the north of our region. But occasionally, it'll reach the Charlotte area.

That's why meteorologists like WCNC-TV's Brad Panovich have forecast a better-than-average chance of ice storms in our area this year. With both the cold air and the storm track nearby, we'll be on the edge between rain and frozen precipitation.

Incidentally, another common theme has been the idea that March could be a chilly and wet month in the East.

But I've seen another interesting aspect to this winter's forecast ... something to keep in mind in the weeks to come.

A couple of long-range forecasters have mentioned that they expect the computer models to produce several bogus predictions of cold air outbreaks in the East. This winter's pattern is set up for cold air and heavy precipitation in the Northwest, but some meteorologists think the computers will erroneously forecast the dip in the jet stream to progress into the East.

Most recently, I saw that comment from Dave Tolleris, who runs a private meteorological firm called wxrisk.com.

In early to mid October, some of the computer models began predicting an outbreak of cold and wet weather in the East. It never happened. We had a cold snap for a few days in the first weekend of November, but the latter half of October was mild. The prediction of stormy weather verified (remember the tornado outbreak on Oct. 25).

But the storm systems were working with mild temperatures.

Now it seems to have happened again. Some of the models earlier this week were predicting a surge of arctic air into the Southeast on Thanksgiving weekend. Now those forecasts are being scaled back.

We're looking for above-average temperatures early next week, with highs possibly reaching 70 degrees on one or two days. The cooldown will come late Thanksgiving Day, but the "arctic surge" now is predicted to be only slightly-below-normal temperatures. We're talking about highs in the middle 50s next Saturday and Sunday.

A Reminder, Folks: I saw a series of comments under one of my blog entries earlier this week, in which sometime questioned my credentials to write a weather blog.

Let me repeat what I wrote in my first blog entry ... I am not a meteorologist. I have been covering weather for almost a decade at The Observer, and I've attended a number of workshops and seminars. I've asked hundreds of questions of meteorologists, and when I don't have the answer to a question, I'll go back to them again.

This blog is not aimed at professional meteorologists. It's for people who are interested in weather, especially in the Carolinas. Basically, it's for weather geeks like myself.

I'll try to mix forecasts, weather stories, and some scientific discussion.

I am not writing this blog from a scientific standpoint. Instead, I'm trying to translate the science of meteorology into words that every-day people can understand. If I mention the North Atlantic Oscillation, I'll explain it -- rather than simply throwing the acronym NAO into this column. The same goes for a myriad other meteorological terms.

I hope that helps.