Sky-high pollen count? Blame mild winter

The temperature isn't the only thing that has climbed far above average this March in the Charlotte region.

So has the pollen count.

The Charlotte area has reached extremely high levels of pollen count the past two days, and the total reportedly is at record levels in Atlanta. Meteorologists say we can blame it on the mild winter.

The situation is obvious to anyone who has gone outdoors. Certainly, you've noticed the coat of yellow dust on your vehicles. That's pine pollen, and it's making a mess of everything ... and probably bringing joy into the hearts of people who operate car washes.

Doctors say pine pollen is ugly but isn't the big health problem that some of its smaller brethren are. As WBTV meteorologist Al Conklin said Wednesday morning, it's the pollen we can't see that causes the problems.

And in the Charlotte area, that's oak pollen.

First, for some numbers. The Charlotte Asthma and Allergy Center says the pollen count Tuesday in the city was 9,790. That's a measurement of the pieces of pollen per cubic meter. That's a ridiculously high number. Officially, Charlotte has been in the "very high" category the past two days.

Of that 9,790 count, more than 8,800 were oak pollen. And oak pollen is particularly troublesome to a lot of people with allergies. That's why many people are miserable these days, dealing with the oak pollen. In comparison, the pollen count for pine -- which we're seeing on cars and trucks -- was about 550.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported that the pollen count of 8,164 Monday in Atlanta set a record -- about 35 percent higher than the previous high of 6,013 measured on April 12, 1999.

Frank Strait, a Rock Hill native who now works as a meteorologist at Pennsylvania-based Accu-Weather, says we can blame it on the mild winter.

"When it starts hitting the 60s and 70s regularly, as it did in February, you start to get the trees out of their dormant state and the flowers blooming," Strait said.

"A small part of the high pollen may also be attributed to people getting an early start to their spring gardens and flower beds, thanks to the unseasonably mild weather," he added.

There's some good news. In areas where it rained Tuesday evening, the pollen count will be lower today, although it is forecast to remain in the "high" range. And with more showers and thunderstorms forecast daily through Saturday, we can expect some relief.

Lasting relief will have to wait until the flowers and trees stop producing pollen in another few weeks, though.

How strong was Charlotte's tornado?

The tornado that touched down two weeks ago Saturday morning in the Reedy Creek area of northeast Charlotte has triggered a lot of conversation, behind the scenes, by meteorologists not only locally but across the nation.

While the somewhat unusual conditions that accompanied the tornado likely will spur some research papers, a more interesting question has surfaced:

How strong was the tornado? Or more specifically, was it really stronger than an EF2.

Larry Gabric, chief meteorologist at the National Weather Service's office in Greer, S.C., and the office's warning coordinator, Tony Sturey, visited the tornado site -- a 3.8-mile stretch from near Reedy Creek Elementary School to the Steeple Chase subdivision along the Mecklenburg-Cabarrus line -- several hours after the storm hit.

Gabric and Sturey surveyed the damage and decided it was an EF2, with top winds of a bit more than 130 mph. That rating is on the Enhanced Fujita scale, than runs from EF0 (the weakest) to EF5.

Some of the TV meteorologists in the Charlotte area, and their counterparts elsewhere, asked if the storm might have been an EF3. They pointed to some of the damage -- specifically, a house blown off its foundation; and a house losing its second story -- and said it was more typical of what you'd see in an EF3 storm.

Even Greg Forbes, the severe weather specialist at the Weather Channel, weighed in. Forbes didn't visit the area and certainly wasn't second-guessing Gabric and Sturey, but he said (based on what he was told) that it sounded like EF3 damage from winds of 145 to 150 mph.

Gabric and Sturey are sticking with their guns, however, saying the overall damage in the area is more consistent with the 130 mph winds.

Granted, to the people who lost their homes or had them heavily damaged, it seems trifling to quibble over the strength of the tornado. This is a scientific issue, but an EF3 rating would have been interesting, because since 1950 -- the start of the data base kept by NOAA -- there has not been a tornado stronger than an EF2 recorded in Mecklenburg County.

Mike Dross, a former Duke Energy meteorologist who operates the Wright-Weather website, notes that the scenario could have been much worse.

"Had this cell developed the tornado about 10 minutes earlier, it would have touched down near uptown Charlotte," he said. The amount of damage, Dross said, would have multiplied several times.

The March 3 tornado remains an interesting topic to meteorologists.

It formed from a thunderstorm with cloud tops of about 35,000 feet -- relatively shallow, compared to the 55,000-foot storm tops in the supercells that produced killer tornadoes March 2 in the Midwest and South. And the tornado developed in an area that had been locked in a cool and relatively stable air mass for much of the preceding 24 hours.

The March 3 tornado in Mecklenburg and Cabarrus counties will provide research material for the meteorologists who have studied this storm -- Dross, WCNC's Brad Panovich, WBTV's Eric Thomas and Al Conklin, and News 14's Jeff Crum, among others.

Warnings ... you can't have it both ways

Probably the biggest story to emerge from Saturday morning's tornado in the Reedy Creek area was the lack of a watch or warning preceding the storm.

Some of the same people who regularly criticize meteorologists and me for reporting about the possibility of severe weather are now complaining that there was no tornado watch and no severe thunderstorm or tornado warning issued.

(I didn't include myself among the meteorologists, because I'm not one ... and I had the high school Physics grades to prove it.)

You can't have it both ways.

The tornado watch that was issued for parts of the Charlotte area in the early-morning hours Saturday came only as far east as Gaston County, and didn't stretch above the N.C.-S.C. border. That's because a wedge front -- separating warm, unstable air over South Carolina from a cool air wedge pocket in North Carolina -- was sitting somewhere near the state line.

Mecklenburg was in the cooler, more stable side.

Obviously, in the early-morning hours Saturday, that front pushed northward -- just long enough for a line of powerful thunderstorms to roar through. No severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings were issued, and that topic has been fully covered already this week. Whether the Charlotte area needs a better radar system is another topic, for another day.

I've been told that forecasters wrestled with the issue of whether to include Mecklenburg and some other N.C. counties in the tornado watch area.

In the past, though, some people have complained that the media engages in scare tactics, warning about snowstorms, ice storms, thunderstorms and floods that never happen. The critics call it sensationalism.

I understand that. People probably feel as if they're being jerked around.

The problem is that meteorology is not an exact science. Astronomers can't figure out where the universe ends. Biologists and botanists are still discovering new types of plants and animals. Medical doctors have many, many questions that need answers.

Meteorologists don't have all the answers either. They have more resources now than they had 30 years ago, with computer modeling and satellites and more. But doctors have more information and resources than they had 30 years ago, and we still don't have a cure for the common cold or stomach viruses.

One day, long after I'm gone, meteorologists will know exactly when and where tornadoes will form, and they'll hit the forecasts on the money every time.

Until then, there's guesswork. Maybe the next time, the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service offices that cover the Carolinas will be a bit more aggressive when they list counties for a thunderstorm or tornado watch area. Maybe the storms will never form. And some people will complain that TV meteorologists are scaring them needlessly.

Perhaps meteorologists can't win, in this case.

Blustery? Yes. Wet? No.

We've had so many run-ins with severe weather this winter that it seems as if we should've gotten plenty of rain. But that hasn't been the case.

A trend has developed in the last two months, and it's not the kind of trend we want.

Storm systems largely have followed a track north of the Carolinas. While clusters of showers and thunderstorms -- and, occasionally, large areas of moderate to heavy rain -- have started moving toward the Charlotte region, they've fizzled out before arriving.

A couple times, moisture in low pressure systems headed toward the western Carolinas was "robbed" by the development of thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico. Those storms blocked the transport of moisture into the Carolinas, and we were left with paltry amounts of rain.

And twice in the last week, areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms have rolled across the Mid-South but have disintegrated when they moved into North Carolina's mountains. Only .06 of an inch of rain fell from the system that moved through Charlotte late Wednesday and early Thursday.

We finished February with 1.3 inches of precipitation, which is a bit more than 2 inches below average for the month. January precipitation, 2.28 inches, was 1.13 inches below average. So for the year, we've received about 55 percent of what we normally get.

Another storm system is predicted to rattle the Midwest and South on Friday and Saturday, and once again, we could get little or no precipitation from it.

The cold months of the year are when groundwater supplies typically are built up, so our farms and lawns can handle the Southern summer heat. There's plenty of time to get the rain, but the pattern will have to change.

Tricky forecast for us tonight

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are hammering parts of Tennessee and Kentucky this afternoon, and it would be logical to assume those storms are heading our way.

They aren't, say meteorologists.

Instead, they say, we need to be looking to the southwest.

The severe weather in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Tuesday afternoon eventually will move toward the North Carolina mountains but weaken. Meteorologist Pat Moore, of the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C., said early Tuesday afternoon that some severe weather is possible, but those storms probably will lose their punch.

Instead, Moore says, the Charlotte area needs to be watching northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., says there is a chance that a second area of severe weather could form this afternoon over Alabama and Georgia. If that were to happen, the storms would push across Atlanta and into the South Carolina upstate, eventually making a run at Charlotte in the early-morning hours.

Those are a lot of "if's."

Severe weather was forecast last Friday but didn't develop. Predicting the development of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is a tricky business. Hence, our tricky forecast for tonight.

Moore's advice: "Monitor the forecast later tonight, especially before going to bed."

Snowless winter? It would be a first

We're several days into the second half of February, which means the start of meteorological spring is less than two weeks away. The "official" start to spring is a little more than a month off.

And not a trace of snow has fallen this season at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport, the city's official reporting station.

That puts us in historic territory -- within sight of the first winter without even a trace of snow in the Queen City, in the 134 years that records have been kept.

If you're a snow-lover and are unhappy about what's happened this winter, here's some bad news. There isn't a definitive sign of frozen precipitation in the forecast for at least the next 10 days. And the outlook in March isn't good.

First, the important caveats.

We all know that snow can fall into April -- especially since all we're talking about here is a "trace." It wouldn't take much for a trace of snow to fall, perhaps at the end of a low pressure system, as the precipitation ends and colder air pours in. Frankly, that could happen Sunday afternoon or evening, as this weekend's big storm system moves up the East Coast.

March typically is among the snowiest months in Charlotte, although anything that falls usually melts very quickly.

But we've been locked in a persistent pattern this winter, with a variety of conditions that have conspired to keep the snow away.

La Nina has been one player, directing a series of mild air masses across the South. There hasn't been a blocking high pressure system over Greenland, or a persistent low pressure system in central or eastern Canada. Either of those conditions would steer arctic air into the East.

The latest bit of evidence pointing to a mild March is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is a moving pattern in the atmosphere, and the latest forecast is that it will be in a phase across the United States in March that tends to produce mild weather.

The Climate Prediction Center, NOAA's long-range forecasting branch, is calling for above-average temperatures through at least March 2. And the longer-range forecast is for warmer-than-average weather through the entire spring and into early summer.

National Weather Service records in Charlotte show that at least a "trace" of snow has fallen every year since records started being kept in 1878-79. The most recent "trace" winter was 2005-06, when a trace was reported in three different months.

Like I said ... not even a whiff of snow so far this winter in the region.

The warm weather probably means a nightmare of crabgrass and weeds in our lawns; flea and tick populations that explode; and all kinds of other bad things this spring and summer. More about that at a later time.

Snow in part of South, but not for us

In a mild winter like the one we're experiencing, even the mention of "snow" is a big deal.

Snow is falling in parts of the South today. More is expected tonight. But it won't happen in the Charlotte region.

There are several reasons, but the biggest is timing. A low pressure system which is causing the inclement weather across parts of the Mid-South today will not reach the Charlotte area until after daybreak Tuesday. By that time, temperatures are expected to be several degrees above freezing.

Anything that falls will fall as rain.

But it's the closest call so far this winter -- a winter which seems headed for a spot in the record books among the all-time mildest.

Before the weekend cold snap, Charlotte was on pace for one of the five mildest winters on record. In fact, it's been that way across nearly all the eastern half of the United States. There hasn't even been a trace of wintry precipitation in Charlotte.

A low pressure system is moving eastward out of Texas. Winter storm warnings are posted in parts of Arkansas, and a wide swath of the South -- from near Memphis, across northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northwest Georgia, and parts of Tennessee -- are under winter weather advisories.

About an inch or two of snow and sleet are expected in that corridor later today.

In addition, a winter weather advisory has been posted by the local National Weather Service office (in Greer, S.C.) for parts of northeast Georgia and southwest North Carolina for tonight. An inch of snow and sleet is possible in that area, which includes Bryson City, Franklin and Sylva.

Rodney Hinson, of the Weather Service's office in Greer, said it's possible that a bit of sleet could fall briefly to the west of Charlotte -- we're talking about Shelby, Lincolnton and Morganton -- when the precipitation starts there around daybreak Tuesday.

But in Charlotte, temperatures are expected to be a couple degrees above freezing when the precipitation arrives.

Two other factors are working against the possibility of snow or sleet in Charlotte.

The strong high pressure system responsible for our cold weekend weather has pumped very, very dry air into the western Carolinas. It will take a long time Tuesday for precipitation to moisten the atmosphere and reach the ground. If the atmosphere weren't so dry, the precipitation would start earlier -- when temperatures were colder.

In addition, the storm system is forecast to weaken as it moves toward the Carolinas. Precipitation will be lighter when it reaches the Charlotte area.

And after Tuesday morning, a milder trend will take command for the rest of the week.