The Great April 15 Snowstorm

Charlotte's near-freezing temperatures Thursday morning seemed like quite a shock after weeks of 70s and 80s in March and early April, but it could have been worse.

In fact, it has been worse.

Mecklenburg County commissioner Bill James, who has a real interest and a good understanding of all things meteorological, passed along an item he found in a history book of Mecklenburg County. It was an excerpt about a big snowstorm on April 15, 1849.

I found several other accounts of the same storm, and interestingly, it appears to have developed in a year much like 2012. Temperatures had been unseasonably mild in March and April, but very cold air spilled into the South in the second week of April. It's not clear exactly what happened, but based on the results, we can guess.

There are published accounts of a big snowstorm that struck April 14 and 15 in parts of Louisiana, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. So we can assume that low pressure formed in the Gulf of Mexico and tracked across the Deep South, into the cold air that had pushed southward.

Mid-April snow in Florida? Just imagine that!

But the Carolinas took a hit.

The Mecklenburg County account, in the book that Bill James found, describes it this way:

"Everything in the way of vegetables was well advanced in the spring of 1849. The farmers were ready to give corn its first plowing when the snow came. It fell very gently, no crust on top.

"It was so piled up in the apple blossoms that they looked like snow balls. All vegetation was killed, no fruit that was in bloom escape being killed. The great crop of Mecklenburg blackberries alone escaped, of all our fruits.

"It was not until mid-summer that the trees made a respectable shade, or the cattle could make a tolerable living in the range at large."

That account says 5 inches of snow fell.

Meteorologist Don Sutherland, who has published a number of books and blogs, notes an account of the storm in the Camden (S.C.) Journal:

"It commenced with a slight fall early in the morning (April 15) and continued to increase in quantity until 2 or 3 o'clock in the afternoon, when it fell in large flakes, as in mid-winter ... The housetops were covered with snow, which had not melted on Monday morning (April 16). A mid-winter scene in early spring is a sight that we do not remember to have seen at any former period."

The S.C. Department of Natural Resources says 6 inches of snow was measured in that storm in Columbia.

So it appears the April 15, 1849, event was a storm that hit South Carolina and the southern edge of North Carolina.

The National Weather Service's records for Charlotte go back only to the winter of 1878-79. Since then, the record snow in April was 3.5 inches, on April 9, 1880.

Cool weather? We knew it was coming

Everyone has been saying it for the last few weeks, as we experienced day after day after day of temperatures far above seasonal averages.

"It'll cool down eventually. We'll get a cold snap in April."

And here it comes, although it's not clear exactly how cold it will get.

Canadian high pressure will take control of Charlotte-area weather Friday, and we'll notice the difference. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s, unless enough sunshine breaks through the overcast Friday afternoon to allow a recovery into the low 60s.

Then we'll have morning lows in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees Saturday, and the low to mid 40s Easter Sunday. Afternoon temperatures won't be bad, with highs around 70 Saturday and in the mid 70s Sunday.

But there won't be a return to 80 degrees next week. Instead, another cold front is forecast to push across the area late Monday or Tuesday, holding afternoon highs to the 60s again for Tuesday and Wednesday.

National Weather Service meteorologists are closely watching for the possibility of frost on those chilly mornings. The unseasonably warm weather in March and early April caused strawberries to ripen early and fruit trees to blossom several weeks before they normally do. A freeze could be devastating to farmers.

The good news? At this point, it appears as if morning temperatures won't quite dip to freezing levels in areas where trees have blossomed.

Forecasters have predicted April will be warmer than average, overall, and that could happen, despite next week's cool down. Accu-Weather forecasts call for a return to the low 80s by late next weekend or early in the week of April 16.

March 2012 ... one for the record book

We've just completed the second-warmest March in Charlotte weather history, but that was nothing, compared to what happened over much of the continental United States during the month.

Dozens of cities, from Maine to Wyoming, broke records for the warmest March ever.

Some cities set daily high temperature records for a week in a row. In one Michigan city, a daily high temperature record was broken by 42 degrees -- and even the morning low was warmer than the previous record high for the date.

More of the same is expected in April, although the start of the month might be a bit cooler than we've seen in recent weeks.

In Charlotte, the average temperature -- calculated by averaging out the daily highs and lows at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport -- was 61.3 degrees. The only March that was warmer was in 1945, when the average was 61.6.

We had 10 days with highs of 80 degrees or warmer, which tied a record for the month.

But several Carolinas cities had the warmest March on record. And it was the same over much of the nation, except for the West Coast, the Southwest, Alaska and Hawaii.

Tampa set a record for the warmest March. So did Riverton, Wyo. So did Portland, Maine. For that matter, so did Winnipeg, in the Canadian prairie province of Manitoba. In fact, the average temperature in March for Winnipeg was 20 degrees warmer than usual.

Perhaps the most amazing event came March 21, when it climbed to 81 degrees in Marquette, Mich., up along Lake Superior on the U.S.-Canada border. The former record high for March 21 was 49 degrees. 49! And the high for the date was 81!

NOAA's forecast for April is a continuation of above-average temperatures in most of the East, although meteorologists also expect the month to be dry. March, while very warm, produced average rainfall totals in much of the Carolinas. The next week or two is expected to be cooler than average in the Carolinas, with a warm-up afterward.

Incidentally, before you get started on the Global Warming Chorus, be aware that March was very chilly on the other side of the globe. It was cold and wet over much of the United Kingdom and Europe.

Great forecast for Easter ... and Easter break

Putting a lot of faith in a forecast 10 days away is a bit risky, but there seems to be agreement among meteorologists that the Charlotte region will enjoy a warm and dry Easter this year.

And the news is good for the many Charlotte-area students who will be on spring break next week. The run of May-like weather is forecast to continue all the way through Easter weekend.

We're in need of rain, but there isn't a sign of a major rain-producing system in our forecast for at least the next 10 days. A cold front will cross the region late Tuesday, and that might trigger some thunderstorms, but the rest of the forecast is dry.

First, for Easter.

Dry conditions are likely, and forecast highs are 82 degrees from Accu-Weather and 78 degrees from the Weather Channel. NOAA's long-range forecast for that period calls for above-average temperatures, but that's nothing new. We've been basking in very warm conditions for months.

The only sticky point comes from a few computer models that indicate a back-door cold front could push into the area from the north, on the day before Easter. Accu-Weather takes stock in that, calling for a high of 69 degrees a week from Saturday. The Weather Channel ignores it, with a predicted high of 76.

So it's probably safe to plan on nice weather.

If you're off next week, prepare to have a good time. Forecast highs are in the low 80s early next week, falling back a bit to the mid 70s on Wednesday and Thursday after a weak cold front comes through.

A sad note: If you've ever been in an area which uses Pennsylvania-based Accu-Weather for its forecasts (WBT is a client here in Charlotte), you undoubtedly heard Ken Reeves give the forecast from time to time.

Reeves was with Accu-Weather for 29 years, and by all accounts, he was a friendly, helpful meteorologist and a good human being.

Reeves, 50, was killed Sunday in a freak accident at his Pennsylvania home. Accu-Weather officials say he was on the roof of his house, taking down Christmas lights, when he fell. Our prayers and condolences go to his family and the fine folks at Accu-Weather.

Saturday night: A memorable hail storm

I was up in Ohio for several days and wasn't here to experience the hail storm last Saturday evening, but it appears as if it produced some unbelievable amounts of hail in Iredell and Rowan counties north of Charlotte.

People told me large hail fell for several minutes in parts of Charlotte, too, but the amount that fell to the north of the city was truly astounding.

I returned home late Sunday afternoon, and someone in our vehicle noticed white patches on the ground near Mooresville.

"Did it snow?" someone asked.

After a few moments, it was obvious we were looking at hail -- still on the ground (in shaded areas), almost 24 hours after it fell.

The hail was so heavy, in fact, that the N.C. Department of Transportation had to send out snowplows to clear the roads in a 5-mile area between Mount Ulla and Woodleaf, in western Rowan County. The hail -- 6 to 8 inches of it -- left some of the roads impassable, according to Dara Demi of the state's DOT.

She said the hail drifted against buildings, measuring more than 4 feet deep in places.

By early Sunday morning, Demi said, the DOT sent crews out in a dump truck and a grader, to push the hail off the roadways.

"They worked for six hours to clear the roads," Demi said.

Snowplows ... clearing hail from a thunderstorm!!!

"Our crews say they have never seen anything like it," Demi added.

Fortunately, it appears as if the hail was not big enough to cause severe damage, like the storms that struck Lancaster, York, Chester, southern Mecklenburg and Cherokee counties early last April. Last Saturday's hail was the product of thunderstorms that pushed high into the atmosphere but had a pocket of very cold air at the middle levels of the atmosphere. That cold air prevented the hail from thawing into large raindrops as it fell.

You can find a page of photos from the storm at a DOT website.

Check www.flickr.com/photos/ncdot/sets/72157629308831512/

Sky-high pollen count? Blame mild winter

The temperature isn't the only thing that has climbed far above average this March in the Charlotte region.

So has the pollen count.

The Charlotte area has reached extremely high levels of pollen count the past two days, and the total reportedly is at record levels in Atlanta. Meteorologists say we can blame it on the mild winter.

The situation is obvious to anyone who has gone outdoors. Certainly, you've noticed the coat of yellow dust on your vehicles. That's pine pollen, and it's making a mess of everything ... and probably bringing joy into the hearts of people who operate car washes.

Doctors say pine pollen is ugly but isn't the big health problem that some of its smaller brethren are. As WBTV meteorologist Al Conklin said Wednesday morning, it's the pollen we can't see that causes the problems.

And in the Charlotte area, that's oak pollen.

First, for some numbers. The Charlotte Asthma and Allergy Center says the pollen count Tuesday in the city was 9,790. That's a measurement of the pieces of pollen per cubic meter. That's a ridiculously high number. Officially, Charlotte has been in the "very high" category the past two days.

Of that 9,790 count, more than 8,800 were oak pollen. And oak pollen is particularly troublesome to a lot of people with allergies. That's why many people are miserable these days, dealing with the oak pollen. In comparison, the pollen count for pine -- which we're seeing on cars and trucks -- was about 550.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported that the pollen count of 8,164 Monday in Atlanta set a record -- about 35 percent higher than the previous high of 6,013 measured on April 12, 1999.

Frank Strait, a Rock Hill native who now works as a meteorologist at Pennsylvania-based Accu-Weather, says we can blame it on the mild winter.

"When it starts hitting the 60s and 70s regularly, as it did in February, you start to get the trees out of their dormant state and the flowers blooming," Strait said.

"A small part of the high pollen may also be attributed to people getting an early start to their spring gardens and flower beds, thanks to the unseasonably mild weather," he added.

There's some good news. In areas where it rained Tuesday evening, the pollen count will be lower today, although it is forecast to remain in the "high" range. And with more showers and thunderstorms forecast daily through Saturday, we can expect some relief.

Lasting relief will have to wait until the flowers and trees stop producing pollen in another few weeks, though.

How strong was Charlotte's tornado?

The tornado that touched down two weeks ago Saturday morning in the Reedy Creek area of northeast Charlotte has triggered a lot of conversation, behind the scenes, by meteorologists not only locally but across the nation.

While the somewhat unusual conditions that accompanied the tornado likely will spur some research papers, a more interesting question has surfaced:

How strong was the tornado? Or more specifically, was it really stronger than an EF2.

Larry Gabric, chief meteorologist at the National Weather Service's office in Greer, S.C., and the office's warning coordinator, Tony Sturey, visited the tornado site -- a 3.8-mile stretch from near Reedy Creek Elementary School to the Steeple Chase subdivision along the Mecklenburg-Cabarrus line -- several hours after the storm hit.

Gabric and Sturey surveyed the damage and decided it was an EF2, with top winds of a bit more than 130 mph. That rating is on the Enhanced Fujita scale, than runs from EF0 (the weakest) to EF5.

Some of the TV meteorologists in the Charlotte area, and their counterparts elsewhere, asked if the storm might have been an EF3. They pointed to some of the damage -- specifically, a house blown off its foundation; and a house losing its second story -- and said it was more typical of what you'd see in an EF3 storm.

Even Greg Forbes, the severe weather specialist at the Weather Channel, weighed in. Forbes didn't visit the area and certainly wasn't second-guessing Gabric and Sturey, but he said (based on what he was told) that it sounded like EF3 damage from winds of 145 to 150 mph.

Gabric and Sturey are sticking with their guns, however, saying the overall damage in the area is more consistent with the 130 mph winds.

Granted, to the people who lost their homes or had them heavily damaged, it seems trifling to quibble over the strength of the tornado. This is a scientific issue, but an EF3 rating would have been interesting, because since 1950 -- the start of the data base kept by NOAA -- there has not been a tornado stronger than an EF2 recorded in Mecklenburg County.

Mike Dross, a former Duke Energy meteorologist who operates the Wright-Weather website, notes that the scenario could have been much worse.

"Had this cell developed the tornado about 10 minutes earlier, it would have touched down near uptown Charlotte," he said. The amount of damage, Dross said, would have multiplied several times.

The March 3 tornado remains an interesting topic to meteorologists.

It formed from a thunderstorm with cloud tops of about 35,000 feet -- relatively shallow, compared to the 55,000-foot storm tops in the supercells that produced killer tornadoes March 2 in the Midwest and South. And the tornado developed in an area that had been locked in a cool and relatively stable air mass for much of the preceding 24 hours.

The March 3 tornado in Mecklenburg and Cabarrus counties will provide research material for the meteorologists who have studied this storm -- Dross, WCNC's Brad Panovich, WBTV's Eric Thomas and Al Conklin, and News 14's Jeff Crum, among others.