Friday AM update on 'historic storm'

3 p.m. Friday update on the East Coast storm (with a link to a funny video) ...

The rain has changed to snow in New York City, and moderate to heavy snow is now falling in Connecticut. Meteorologists seem to think the forecast is on target for most areas, except possibly Philadelphia.

The earlier forecast for Philly was 3 to 5 inches, but I think that will be downgraded. Precipitation is still falling as rain there, and it looks like the worst of the storm will be north of the area by the time the temperature drops enough for a changeover to snow.  The National Weather Service office there says I-78 is the cutoff line between rain and snow.

The latest indication is that snow could fall at rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour in the heaviest bands. And a state of emergency is in effect now in Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

A friend of my brother sent him a link to a rather funny YouTube video that seemed to capture the attitude of some people along the East Coast in advance of the storm.  It's called "Bread and Milk."

Enjoy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6zaVYWLTkU

9:45 a.m. Friday update on the East Coast storm ...

There are really no changes in thinking on the big storm hitting the East Coast (you can read my earlier post below this one). Meteorologists believe the snowfall will break records in some places, and the winds will leave hundreds of thousands of people without power.

I feel sorry for any ships that are caught in the path of this monster storm, because wave heights will be staggering (see below).

Here's the latest update on the storm and its impacts on various locations:

Baltimore and Washington ... Rain changes to snow at the end of the storm, with a coating to possibly 1 inch. A bit more could accumulate to the west, around Frederick. Wind gusts to 40 mph.

Philadelphia ... It will miss the worst of the snow, with temperatures staying above freezing for much of the event. However, the rain will change to snow Friday evening, and 3 to 5 inches will accumulate in the city, with much heavier totals in the northern suburbs. Heavy rain will fall during the day, possibly causing some flooding issues. Wind gusts to 35 mph.

Delaware, Jersey coasts ... Coastal flood warnings are issued. Early in the storm, winds will be out of the northeast, gusting to 45 mph. The storm will intensify later, but winds will swing around to the north and northwest by that time, perhaps sparing these coasts the worst damage.

Pittsburgh and Cleveland ... Too far west to get into the action. Maybe an inch of snow.

Buffalo ... The big blizzard is a merger of two storm systems, and the northern system will leave 2 to 6 inches of snow and sleet in Buffalo. Travel conditions will be difficult Friday.

New York City ... A rain-snow mix is falling at 9:45 a.m. It is expected to change to snow between 4 and 6 p.m., with 10 to 14 inches accumulating. Heavier totals will be recorded in areas that get bursts of heavy snow this evening. Winds will gust to 45 mph.

Long Island ... About the same as in New York City, with 12 to 20 inches of snow. Significant coastal flooding is possible on the northeast side of the island, with tides 3 to 4 feet above normal and waves of 5 to 7 feet. Winds will gust to 50 mph.

Hartford ... Light snow already falling at 9:45 a.m. Accumulations of 24 to 30 inches, with winds gusting to 50 mph.

Providence ... Light snow already falling at 9:45 a.m. Accumulations of 24 to 30 inches, with winds gusting to 60 mph. Widespread power outages likely.

Boston ... Snow hasn't arrived yet. Accumulations of 25 to 32 inches, with winds gusting to 60 mph and widespread power outages.

Western Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire ... Accumulations of 10 to 20 inches. Winds gusting to 45 mph.

Portland (Maine) ... About 5 inches of snow fell Friday morning, due to a front forming along the coast in advance of the storm. Total accumulations of 20 to 30 inches, with winds gusting to 55 mph.

Atlantic waters ... A hurricane force wind warning is posted, with Saturday's winds off the coast (from Long Island up to Maine) from the north-northeast at 70 to 80 mph, gusting to near 90 mph. Waves of up to 40 feet.

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Earlier post from Thursday night ...

There will be plenty of descriptions used for the massive winter storm that will take shape Friday off the East Coast, but Paul Ryan of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center said it simply and best.

"This is a potentially historic winter storm," Ryan said Thursday.

The rain falling across the Carolinas on Thursday evening is a piece in what is expected to become a devastating blizzard up the East Coast on Friday and early Saturday.

The low pressure system crossing our area will strengthen when it moves off the coast, then merge with another storm system that is crossing the Great Lakes (and bringing heavy snow to Wisconsin and Michigan).

The result will be a storm system capable of dumping 30 inches of snow and producing winds gusting to 75 mph.

If you have a flight scheduled Friday or even early Saturday to New York City, Boston, Hartford or Providence, forget about it. Logan International Airport in Boston already has cancelled all flights Friday, and wholesale cancellations are nearly a sure bet at the other cities.  There even could be some cancellations in Philadelphia, which will be on the edge of the snowfall.

Here are some predictions for snowfall:

Baltimore and Washington ... a trace, with perhaps an inch of snow and sleet falling to the west of those cities, especially around Frederick and Hagerstown in western Maryland.

Philadelphia ... mostly rain Friday, but it will change to snow at night; 3 to 5 inches accumulating.

New York City ... snow to start Friday morning, then changing to a mix of heavy snow and heavy rain in the afternoon, changing back to all snow in the evening; winds gusting to between 50 and 60 mph; 8 to 14 inches of snow.

Hartford ... mostly snow, with 14 to 20 inches accumulating; winds gusting to 50 mph at times.

Boston ... snow beginning Friday afternoon and continuing until daybreak Saturday; winds gusting to 60 mph; snowfall of 18 to 24 inches.

Pittsburgh ... it will escape the storm, with the heavy snow falling to the east; only 1 inch in Pittsburgh.

There could be accumulations of 30 or even 35 inches in central Massachusetts and parts of New Hampshire. The strong winds will create drifts that will be measured in feet.

The storm will create big waves, although the prevailing direction will be from the north.  That means the only area in danger of coastal flooding would appear to be the north shore of Long Island, along with Nantucket and parts of Cape Cod.

A hurricane force wind warning is posted offshore from Cape Cod to Long Island, for winds of 50 to 60 mph, gusting to 75 mph.

If the storm develops as expected, it will be an amazing weather event.

An amazing downpour in north Charlotte

The line of heavy showers and thunderstorms that crossed the Carolinas last Thursday triggered flash flooding in Boone and several other locations in the mountains, but it was responsible for a staggering rainfall number in Charlotte, too.

I thank Sharon Foote of Charlotte-Mecklenburg Storm Water Services for this report.

Many of you know that Storm Water Services monitors automated gauges along a number of creeks in the area. Those gauges alert officials to possible flooding.

Foote passes along a measurement from the gauge at Mallard Creek Elementary School around 8:20 p.m. last Thursday, when the line of storms was crossing Charlotte.

During a span of about three minutes, according to the gauge, 0.45 inches of rain fell. That's nearly a half-inch of rain in three minutes. Or, converting it to an hourly rate, we're talking about 9 inches per hour.

Fortunately, the storms moved through quickly.  There was one other three-minute period when about .15 of an inch fell, but for the most part, rainfall rates were modest.  The total from the storm was a bit more than 1 inch.

The generally-recognized world record for most rainfall in one minute is 1.5 inches, on the Caribbean island of Guadeloupe in 1970.

Some rainy days ahead

It looks like today and Wednesday will be the best weather days over the next six or seven, with a couple rounds of rain likely in the Charlotte region.

Temperatures moved past the 60-degree mark early Tuesday afternoon, and another day of low to mid 60s is expected Wednesday. It's a nice change of pace from some of those cold, windy days we've experienced recently.

We'll see a change in the pattern Thursday. A cooler high pressure system over the Ohio Valley will dominate the Charlotte region, bringing temperatures about 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. About the same time, low pressure will be taking shape in the Gulf of Mexico, which means high clouds will thicken during the day Thursday.

That sets the stage for rainy weather from Thursday evening into Friday morning. Some of the computer models indicate the rain could fall heavily at times. The latest National Weather Service forecast was for temperatures in the lower 50s Friday, but the scenario looks more like a very chilly rain -- with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s and low 40s Thursday night and staying there for much of Friday.

Partial sunshine probably will return Saturday, but clouds will be on the increase again Sunday, with another storm system approaching. And that means more rain, probably Sunday night and Monday.

In case you haven't noticed, we're erasing that rainfall deficit we built last fall.  Precipitation was far below average in October and November, but the numbers have been above average in December and January. We still have a deficit over the past four months (I mean, we were waaaaay below average in October and November!), but groundwater supplies are being replenished.

December's precipitation was a little more than a half-inch above average, and Charlotte was about 1 inch above average in January.

What about winter?  Temperatures on Friday won't be too far above the level where we could have frozen precipitation, but a cold rain is much more likely than anything sinister.  Beyond that, there's nothing on the immediate horizon.

However, watch the time frame around Valentine's Day. Computer models have been insisting for days about a possible winter storm system Feb. 13 or 14, followed by another storm a few days later.  After that, it looks a bit milder to the end of the month.

How accurate is the groundhog?

Thousands of people will begin gathering at 3 a.m. Saturday in Punxsutawney, Pa., for the small town's annual Groundhog Day festivities.

The main event comes at 7:25 a.m., when handlers bring Punxsutawney Phil from his den to see if the groundhog casts a shadow.

Similar events will be taking place elsewhere in North America, with other groundhogs looking for their shadows. There's our very own Queen Charlotte, along with General Beauregard Lee in Atlanta, Staten Island Chuck in New York, and Wiarton Willie in Ontario.

It's a lot of fun, and if the groundhog's forecast suits your tastes, it also brings a bit of hope.

I remember, in my days in northeastern Ohio, how some people would get depressed if Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, promising six more weeks of winter.

The whole groundhog thing dates back to the Middle Ages, when European Christians burned candles on Feb. 2 to signal hope in the middle of the winter darkness. February 2 came to be known as Candlemas Day, giving rise to this poem:

If Candlemas be fair and bright,
winter has another flight.
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
winter will not come again.

And in 1887, the editor of Punxsutawney's newspaper came up with the idea of holding a festival every year, built around the Candlemas tradition. According to stories I found, the editor, Clymer Freas, decided to link the event to the groundhog, because many of his buddies enjoyed hunting the critters.

According to National Weather Service statistics for southwest Pennsylvania over the past 20 years, Punxsutawney Phil's record is 4 wins, 5 losses, and 11 ties.

A "tie" occurred when February's and March's temperatures differed greatly. For example, in 2011, temperatures in southwest Pennsylvania were below-average in February but above-average in March. So I counted that as a tie.

Actually, Phil does better at predicting March temperatures than February.  If you compare his prediction with one month's temperatures, he had a 7-13 record in February but 11-9 in March.

Queen Charlotte here in Charlotte has been 2-3 over the last five years.  She saw her shadow last Feb. 2, and we experienced one of the warmest winters on record.  Two years ago, she didn't see her shadow -- and what had started as a very cold winter turned very warm, about a week after Groundhog Day.

Storms gone ... so what's next?

The meteorologically bizarre turn of events in the Charlotte region over the last 48 hours is history, and we're back in a more typical late-January pattern.

So that begs the question ... what happens next for our weather?

First, let's look at a few of the highlights from our wild Wednesday weather:

-- Our morning low of 62 degrees broke a record for the warmest low temperature in Charlotte for the date. The old mark was 59 degrees, set in 1914.

-- Our afternoon high of 77 degrees barely missed tying the record for the date. The mark is 78, set in 2002.

-- While most of us in the immediate Charlotte area received about 3/4 of an inch of rain, there were some staggering totals in the mountains. The line of thunderstorms chugged to a near-halt for several hours in the high country. The result was flooding. Boone recorded 5.9 inches of rain. Asheville's total of 2.76 inches set a record for the date.

-- As the cold front pushed across North Carolina, we briefly had a situation in which winter had returned in the west, but it was still spring in the east. At 3 a.m., the range of temperatures in the state was 53 degrees. It was 19 in Franklin, in the western mountains, but 72 on the Outer Banks.

For the next few days, we're back in what meteorologists call an amplified pattern. That means there's a big dip in the jet stream, with Alberta clipper low pressure systems diving into the Southeast, bringing quick shots of snow and reinforcing blasts of cold air.

One of those systems will cross the mountains tonight, bringing 1-3 inches of snow to the ski resort areas. And behind it, temperatures will be colder Friday.  We'll be lucky to get above 40 degrees Friday in Charlotte.

Another clipper will zoom through the region Saturday night.  This time, precipitation could start as rain in the mountains but will change to snow, with another accumulation.  And this system could slide far enough south to bring light snow into Hickory and Statesville -- and possibly even some flurries to Charlotte.  Of course, you might have to get up at (or stay awake to) 3 a.m. Sunday to see it.

After that, it'll be chilly and windy again Sunday, before turning milder for most of next week.

The longer-range patterns continue to advertise generally mild weather for at least the first half of February. There are no signs of really warm weather, but temperatures seem to be headed for seasonal to slightly above-average readings.

At this time of year, the average highs and lows are 52 and 31. That's 2 degrees warmer than at the coldest point, in mid-January.  We're on the way back up.

So the first half of February looks like mostly 50s and low 60s for highs, if the computer models have it right.

Beyond that is anyone's guess.  Will we return to cold weather for the last few weeks of winter, or will we stay seasonal into March?  The longer-range models don't agree.

Winter tornadoes are especially treacherous

The powerful line of thunderstorms plowing its way eastward toward the Charlotte region Wednesday afternoon is carrying a real threat to lives and property.

Any doubts about that were dispelled about 11 a.m., when a tornado barreled through Adairsville, Ga., a town north of Atlanta on Interstate 75.

According to early reports, the funnel cloud damaged a McDonalds restaurant and blew dozens of vehicles off nearby I-75.

The timing of this storm system could make it especially treacherous in the Charlotte region.

A few things to remember about these unusual winter severe weather outbreaks:

-- Many of these storms are low-topped.  That is, the cloud tops don't stretch 50,000 or 60,000 feet into the atmosphere, as is the case during warm-weather seasons.  The tops of these storms can be much lower.

-- Because of those low tops, these storms often contain no lightning.  They can roar into an area with little warning, causing considerable wind damage.

-- Because of the atmospheric conditions in these winter severe weather outbreaks, the storms often don't weaken when the sun sets. Overnight storms can remain quite strong, as was the case early Wednesday across Tennessee and Kentucky.

We'll keep you updated on developments during the afternoon and evening.  One trend to watch for is the development of what meteorologists call "discrete" storm cells.  These storms form ahead of the main squall line, and they are often responsible for tornadoes.  There are signs of these discrete cells forming Wednesday afternoon over Georgia, moving east-northeast.

Severe storm possibility Wednesday

Just three days ago, we were dealing with sleet, freezing rain, school closings, and hundreds of motorists smashing into guardrails and other vehicles.

Now we're talking about 70 degrees and a chance of damaging winds and tornadoes in two days.

A brief switch in the upper atmospheric steering currents will allow a return of very warm weather to the Carolinas for about 48 hours, starting later today. But that will end Wednesday with a strong cold front and the threat of severe weather.

After another cloudy and cool afternoon today, with high temperatures probably only reaching the upper 40s, the pattern change will start tonight. Warmer air will arrive from above, probably trapping cooler air near the surface and causing fog in the early-morning hours.

But once the sun rises, mixing the atmosphere Tuesday morning, the fog is expected to dissipate in a hurry, and we'll see temperatures reach the upper 60s.

Wednesday also will be warm, but a strong cold front will be approaching the region by late morning and afternoon.

Harry Gerapetritis, of the National Weather Service's office in Greer, S.C., said there will be very strong winds in mid levels of the atmosphere in advance of the front, and some computer models indicate those winds will be transported to the surface as the front approaches.

In addition, heavy rain is possible in the mountains and foothills, and those areas already have received 6 or more inches of precipitation in the last few weeks. So flooding also will be a threat.

"Both a flash flood watch and a high wind watch could be needed" in the mountains for Tuesday night and Wednesday, Gerapetritis said.

In the Piedmont, the threat is expected to develop after midday Wednesday, when the cold front approaches.

Gerapetritis said a few of the thunderstorms could become severe, especially in the Interstate 77 corridor of North Carolina, and in the South Carolina upstate.

"Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, but isolated tornadoes will be possible as well," he said.

His assessment is supported by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.  In fact, SPC meteorologists have painted a large area of the South and Midwest -- stretching from Texas to central Illinois and Indiana -- for a threat of severe weather Tuesday. Then on Wednesday, the severe threat area stretches from the Gulf Coast to Virginia and southern Kentucky.

Behind all this will be a return to cold and stable conditions for several days.  High temperatures will only reach the middle and upper 40s Thursday through Sunday, but there are no signs of low pressure areas that could bring another threat of frozen precipitation.

In fact, some of the longer-term models point to a rather mild (even warm) period for at least the first half of February. We'll be talking more about that in coming days.