Fog, crazy temperatures, talk of snow ...

Sorry for being away a few days.  A little virus caught me last weekend and sent me to the hospital briefly, but it's time to get caught up here.

There is a lot of weather news out there, and I'll try to address it all briefly:

"SNOW" TALK ... A storm system is expected to cross the Southeast on Thursday and Thursday night, with temperatures marginally close to the snow level in parts of the Carolinas, Tennessee and Georgia.

Most of the computer models show this as a rain event for Charlotte, and the National Weather Service and most meteorologists are buying that solution. There'll be plenty of precipitation -- around 1 to 2 inches in parts of the Piedmont and foothills -- but temperatures simply aren't cold enough for snow.

Those who are wish-casting for snow say the low pressure system could strengthen enough to cool the atmosphere in the areas of heaviest precipitation, and that's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. But the computers simply don't show the system getting strong enough to do that.

Having said all that, stay tuned to the forecast.  And snow certainly is likely in the mountains, especially above 3,000 feet.  Finally, the exact track of the system will play a role in where the heaviest precipitation falls.

THE FOG ... It's dense again this evening, and that's a sign of a stalled front nearby. Remember those 70-degree temperatures we had over the weekend?  If you live 40 to 50 miles south of Charlotte, you're still enjoying the warmth. A cold air wedge became established during the daytime hours Tuesday, stretching generally east-west across South Carolina.

At 9 p.m., it was 48 degrees in Charlotte but 61 in Camden, S.C. -- and even warmer, 70 degrees, in Columbia.

It's a safe bet that the fog will continue throughout the night in the immediate Charlotte area, but it's not so clear what happens Wednesday. The forecast is for the cold air wedge to break down, and temperatures to climb into the mid 60s in Charlotte.  But these wedge conditions almost always are much, much more stubborn than expected.  Don't be surprised if we remain in the low to mid 50s much of the day, with low clouds.

TEMPERATURE PLUNGE ... The much-ballyhooed (by the computer models, for weeks) arrival of polar air now seems to be more likely, early next week.  A pair of cold fronts are predicted to cross the Charlotte region Sunday and Monday, and high temperatures Tuesday might struggle to climb much above 40 degrees, despite plenty of sunshine.

Will it be a transient (i.e., short-lived) shot of cold air, or will the polar outbreak last a while?  That's still an open question, but it looks like the end of January and beginning of February will be quite a bit chillier than the past several days, at least.

No winter here ... but look elsewhere

While we in the Charlotte region prepare for a weekend of 70-degree-plus temperatures and wonder whether the really cold air poised to drop southward will ever reach the Southeast, there is no lack of winter in other places.

A blizzard is taking aim at the Rockies and upper Midwest, and the northwest flow behind that storm will bring the coldest air in two years to California and Arizona this weekend.

Meanwhile, a blizzard is paralyzing Newfoundland, with some amazing snowfall totals and winds that are knocking out power to thousands of customers.

COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH ... Meteorologists have been watching the big mass of cold air for days, and now it appears to be moving toward the lower 48 United States.  We've written earlier this week about Sudden Stratospheric Warming, and how that condition will dislodge polar air southward (except we're not exactly sure how much of it is pushed onto our side of the globe).

By early next week, temperatures are expected to tumble about 40 degrees in the Rockies, Midwest and northern Great Lakes.

BLIZZARD ... The storm began taking shape Friday morning, dumping heavy snow in much of Idaho and in places like Salt Lake City. Winds gusted to near 80 mph in parts of Colorado. That storm is predicted to produce blizzard conditions this weekend as it treks on a northeast course out of the Rockies. Montana, the Dakota and northwest parts of Nebraska and Minnesota will get heavy snow and strong winds before the storm moves into Canada.

WEST COAST COLD ... Behind the storm system, very cold air will funnel into Oregon, California, Nevada and Arizona. Los Angeles will get lows in the mid 30s the next three nights, and it will be in the lower 30s near San Francisco. Light frost is predicted for the desert areas around Palm Springs, and there could be frost in the interior valleys.  It is not expected to be bad enough to damage crops.

Want some more cold.  How about upper 20s and a hard freeze in Phoenix on Saturday night?  And temperatures will reach the upper teens on the Arizona-Mexico border at night this weekend.

NEWFOUNDLAND STORM ... Much farther to the northeast, a separate storm system is crossing to the south of Canada's eastern-most province Friday.  That puts most of Newfoundland on the north (cold) side of the storm, and the precipitation is falling as snow.  Up to 30 inches of snow is possible in places, and winds are gusting above 60 mph.  Power is out across the province.

You can get some interesting Twitter accounts (including photos) of the storm https://twitter.com/search?q=%23snowmageddon.

Our area -- surrounded by weather news

It looks as if the Charlotte region will be surrounded by big weather news over the next several days, while the computer models struggle to figure out how far south the arctic air will descend next week and beyond.

In the immediate future, we're in for some very warm weather -- except for Friday.

Temperatures are soaring well into the 60s today, but they'll be limited to the upper 50s by clouds and showers Friday, as a warm front slides northward across the region. But remember -- even the upper 50s are a lot milder than the average high of 50 degrees in Charlotte at this time of the year.

The three days after that, Saturday through Monday, will be downright silly with the mild weather. High temperatures will push into the lower 70s each day, and there'll be some sunshine accompanying the warmth Saturday and Sunday.

While all this is happening to us, areas near the Charlotte region will be dealing with big weather news.

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are threatening parts of the deep South today, and while the severe weather probably will weaken by Friday, there will still be a chance of flooding rains to our west. The heavy rain is expected to fall in Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and maybe southern Kentucky.

A few showers are likely in our region, but what we get will pale in comparison with what falls to our west.

Meanwhile, to the northwest, bitter cold will be the story.

An outbreak of arctic air is forecast to plunge into the Rockies and upper Midwest by early in the weekend, and some of the temperature contrasts will be ridiculous. Fargo, N.D., is expected to have a high of 40 degrees today. That's downright tropical in January for North Dakota. But by Monday, the afternoon high is forecast to be 2 degrees.

Eventually, the cold air will reach the Carolinas. The best guess is that it arrives next Friday, but it's hard to tell how much cold air will actually move into the Southeast.

The computer models seem to hint at the coldest air being held north of the Carolinas. But I've seen posts on weather bulletin boards, noting that cold air -- which is heavy, dense -- sometimes spreads a lot farther south and east than the computers predict.  Given that a storm system could be moving across the Southeast late next week, we'll need to watch the temperature forecast closely.

Beyond that, who knows?

Consensus earlier this week was that a prolonged period of cold weather was headed for our region. Now a lot of the computer models are hedging on that, showing only a couple of short-lived cold snaps -- and nothing more than slightly-below-average temperatures (i.e., highs in the upper 40s) for late in the month.

Meteorologists have done a good job of determining the various players in our forecast, but the science of figuring out how those players interact is the tough part.

How warm will the Carolinas get?

Once a warm front pushes north of the Charlotte region sometime early Friday, we're in for several days of temperatures that are far above seasonal averages.

In fact, we could make a run at record highs this weekend, when temperatures are expected to climb above the 70-degree mark.

The warm front will spread plenty of clouds and some rain into the region from late Wednesday until early Friday, as it slowly moves northward across the Southeast. After that, we'll be under the influence of high pressure off the Southeast coast.

If skies were reasonably clear, it's possible temperatures Saturday through Monday could push well into the 70s. The all-time records are 75 degrees Saturday (set in 1890) and Sunday (1960), and 77 degrees Monday (1907).

But it looks as if there'll be considerable cloudiness those days, and possibly even a few showers. That could serve to put a lid on temperatures, holding them in the upper 60s.  Either way, it's a far cry from our average high of 51 degrees at this time of year.

The big difference will be at night.  As the National Weather Service office in Greer, S.C., noted, Tuesday morning probably will be the last time for a week -- at least -- that temperatures fall below freezing in Charlotte. Our morning lows this weekend might not drop below the 50-degree mark.  That certainly will help keep the heating bills in check.

It continues to look as if some really cold air will spill into the Southeast toward the end of next week, but the jury remains out, in terms of how long the cold will hang around. Any outbreaks of cold air will be doing battle with a stubborn high pressure ridge off the Southeast coast.

You like warm winters? Enjoy next 10-14 days

Those of you dreaming of arctic air and snow ... don't read this.

Today's entry is for those who moved to the Carolinas to escape 15-degree mornings, icy roads, and snow on the ground.  A warming trend is headed for the Southeast -- and, for that matter, for much of the eastern United States.

We could be looking at temperatures near 70 degrees by the end of the weekend.

We'll get there gradually. High temperatures today will only reach 50 degrees, but we'll have sunny skies, and that will make it seem nicer.  The sunshine continues Tuesday, with highs reaching 55 degrees.

By Wednesday, a warm front is expected to develop along the Gulf Coast and trudge northward. That will mean cloudy skies both Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Wednesday could be near 60 degrees, but as the warm front moves through the area Thursday, daytime temperatures might be held back a bit by clouds, showers, and a northeast flow just to the north of the front -- in our area.

Then the milder air takes control Friday.  A ridge of high pressure is expected to set up shop in the Southeast, and it will serve to block the advance of any cold air for a while.

Forecast highs are low 60s Friday, then mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday.

Just for reference sake ... Charlotte's average high temperature at this time of year is around 50 degrees.

A cold front is expected to approach by late in the weekend, but the Southeast high pressure ridge will serve to weaken the front. That means a likely continuation of mild weather for much or maybe all of next week.

The long-range forecasts continue to point toward a much colder solution for the final 10 to 12 days of January.  A combination of conditions is forecast to push arctic air into the Rockies initially (by the weekend) and then gradually nudge the much colder temperatures farther to the south and east over a period of a week or so.

If all this verifies, we'll have colder conditions by around the 20th of January, and that could set the stage for a period of chilly weather.

How chilly?  It's too early to tell.  Between now and then, if you're a warm weather fan, just enjoy.

Mild next week, then winter returns

It looks as if we're in store for mild weather next week, but don't get too accustomed to it. Winter appears to be planning a return visit later in the month.

The computer models point to above-average temperatures across all but the Northeast next week, and that will translate into afternoon high temperatures well into the upper 50s and possibly the lower 60s by later in the week for the Charlotte region.

The warm-up will begin after a weak storm system crosses the area late Saturday and early Sunday. It dropped to 22 degrees at Charlotte-Douglas International Airport on Friday morning, and temperatures probably will be in the mid 20s again Saturday at daybreak.

Then comes a change to warmer conditions for all of next week.

After that, there are a bunch of signs pointing to some pretty cold weather returning to the United States and eventually making its way into the Southeast. The best guess among meteorologists is that the Southeast will see the cold weather arrive somewhere around the 16th to the 20th of the month.

A couple issues are at work here.  A number of meteorologists are pointing to sudden stratospheric warming in the arctic. That is a buildup of relatively warm air between 25,000 and 100,000 feet above the ground in the far north. Accu-Weather mentions this in a story today (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/nasty-cold-waves-could-be-in-t/3586088).

This condition tends to send cold air near the surface southward. About the same time, the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation are forecast to be in a negative phase. That means the atmospheric pattern would steer weather systems into the central and eastern United States.

One possible fly in the ointment -- the persistent low pressure in the eastern Pacific. The atmospheric flow in the eastern Pacific has tended to block the southward movement of cold air so far this winter. If the Pacific Oscillation is negative, that could stop any arctic outbreaks from pushing very far south of the Midwest and Great Lakes.

The long-range computer models think the cold air will win out. Accu-Weather meteorologists predict the arctic air will move into the upper Midwest and Rockies initially, then keep pushing a little farther south and east. For a while, the Southeast will remain in the mild air, they predict.  Eventually, they say, arctic air will dominate.

WCNC's chief meteorologist, Brad Panovich, posted a GFS model forecast on his Facebook page yesterday that shows some really brutal cold in the Southeast later this month.

Some of you are saying, "We've heard this before," and you're right. Some meteorologists have been predicting a turn to much colder conditions since late November, and it hasn't happened.

In the meantime, enjoy the milder conditions next week. That seems almost certain to happen.

We'll have to wait and see what happens beyond that.

2012 -- a year of no-shows

Want to know what kind of weather year 2012 was for the Charlotte region?

Two of the biggest stories of the year were things that did not happen.

Sure, there were a couple major events in the area, including a tornado inside the Charlotte city limits and a record-setting heat wave.

But for the most part, 2012 lacked major stories -- at least in the immediate region. Nationally, it was the year of a devastating drought in the central United States and a devastating hurricane/superstorm on the East Coast.

Among the biggest stories for Charlotte-area weather in the recently-ended year, though, were the Winter That Wasn't, and the Thunderstorm That Never Arrived.

Here's a look at the big regional stories -- including two national stories that had a local impact:

MARCH TORNADO ... This was a freak, of sorts.  A major outbreak of tornadoes occurred March 2 and 3, but a stationary front had been draped across the Carolinas border for much of March 2. Areas to the north of that front were in cooler, more stable air.  The National Weather Service had issued a tornado watch for areas south of the front.

But in the early-morning hours of March 3, a Saturday, a strong thunderstorm along or just north of the stationary front caused a tornado to form east of the city. The twister touched down near Reedy Creek Elementary School and carved a path into Cabarrus County. Although some meteorologists think the twister might have reached EF3 strength, the National Weather Service classified it as an EF2, with top sustained winds of 130 mph.

JANUARY TORNADO ... This one was really a freak storm. Tornadoes in mid-winter are a rarity, even in the South, although with last winter's mild temperatures, maybe it shouldn't have been surprising. Three tornadoes struck in Rutherford, Burke and Catawba counties, causing about 20 injuries and damaging or destroying about 100 residences.

THE WINTER THAT WASN'T ... It was one of the mildest winters in history, and if not for a brief period of sleet on the evening of Feb. 19, Charlotte might have gone without even a trace of frozen precipitation for the first time since records starting being kept in 1878.

Various atmospheric patterns collaborated to keep temperatures mild in the east. In January, Charlotte's highs reached 60 degrees or warmer on 12 days.  There were four 70-degree-plus days in February. Spring started the same way, as March (the first month of meteorological spring) had 10 days in the 70s and 10 more in the 80s. In fact, it was the second-warmest March in Charlotte history.

STORMY AND STEAMY ... May, July and August were hot, humid, and stormy.  Charlotte recorded nearly 6 inches of rain in May, and there were much-higher totals in some parts of the area -- thanks to numerous thunderstorms. At Charlotte-Douglas International Airport, there were storms on nine days in May; 16 in July; and nine in August.  June was a dry month.

Some parts of the Charlotte region recorded nearly 20 inches of rain from early May to early September. It was welcome, especially considering how dry the last few months of the year turned out.

JULY 4 HEAT WAVE ... For three straight days -- June 29, June 30 and July 1 -- the official high in Charlotte was 104 degrees. That equaled the city's record high temperature, and there were readings of 106 and 107 degrees in the region. The high also reached 100 degrees on July 5 and 8. Air conditioning technicians were working around the clock to keep up with the demand for repairs.

The heat finally broke on July 9. It turned out to be the fifth-hottest July in Charlotte history.

WESTERN WILDFIRES ... While this did not directly affect Charlotte, there was an indirect connection. A C-130 plane from a Charlotte-based Air National Guard unit crashed July 1 while fighting a wildfire in South Dakota's Black Hills. Four of the six crew members were killed. An investigation later determined that the plane encountered severe turbulence and was caught in a downdraft.

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT NEVER ARRIVED ... Never has a busted local forecast had such a big impact nationally. The stormy pattern that had been persistent in Charlotte during the summer continued into late August, for the start of the Democratic National Convention in the city.

Strong storms hit on the Saturday, Monday and Tuesday of the DNC (Sept. 1, 3 and 4), with more than 2 inches of rain falling. Some flooding was reported in the Saturday storm.

President Obama was scheduled to deliver his acceptance speech outdoors on Sept. 6 at Bank of America Stadium, and many of those who had volunteered their time to help with the convention were promised a ticket at the event. Unfortunately, meteorologists predicted another day of stormy weather on the 6th, with a cold front forecast to move through the region.

On the 5th, Democratic Party officials scrubbed plans for an outdoor speech and moved the event indoors to Time-Warner Cable Arena.  Naturally, most of Sept. 6 was dry and sunny.

SANDY ... The Charlotte area escaped any direct impact from the hurricane-turned-superstorm. But North Carolina took a shot from Sandy in two different ways. As the hurricane chugged up the coast, closer to shore than originally expected, strong winds and high waves tore up roadways and houses along the Outer Banks. And once the storm moved inland, its back-side precipitation brought heavy snow to the North Carolina mountains. Ski resorts were able to open at the beginning of November.