History says Charlotte's weather during the Democratic National Convention will be warm and rather benign.
But this summer’s patterns could throw a meteorological monkey wrench into outdoor events planned for the DNC – notably, the outdoor festival on Labor Day and President Barack Obama’s scheduled nomination acceptance speech the night of Sept. 6 at Bank of America Stadium.
The Charlotte region has been locked in an unsettled weather pattern much of this summer, with lengthy stretches of dry weather few and far between.
In addition, hurricane specialists have upped the forecast for this season, adding the threat that the remnants of a dying hurricane or tropical storm could put a damper on outdoor events.
Climatology favors convention-organizers’ plans to stage an outdoor festival on uptown streets Sept. 3, and to stage the week’s highlight event, the president’s speech, in an outdoor venue. Trace amounts or less of rain have fallen from Sept. 3-6 in six of the last 10 years in Charlotte, and less than a quarter-inch fell during the same four-day span in two other years.
Only last year, when 1.62 inches fell on a stormy Sept. 5, and 2006, when it rained each of the four days, have been the exception. Temperatures also have been moderate, with highs reaching 90 degrees or more on only seven of 40 days between Sept. 3 and 6 in the last decade.
But the pattern should concern those who want to party outdoors in during the DNC this year.
“There has been a persistent trough over the eastern United States – low pressure between a strong high in the West and another high pressure system in the Atlantic,” said James Oh, of the National Weather Service’s office in Greer, S.C.
That trough has produced several stretches of weather like last week, when a weak cold front pushed south into the Carolinas and stalled, triggering days of thunderstorm activity. While this week’s weather is forecast to be mostly dry, another wet cycle is forecast for next week.
“Our reliable forecasts go out only about seven to 10 days, so it’s not possible to foresee what will happen when the convention is in Charlotte,” Oh said.
He said the Climate Prediction Center’s 30-day outlook isn’t much help. It calls for generally average temperature and rainfall conditions in the western Carolinas, although precipitation might be a bit higher than usual, Oh said.
The tropics are another issue. Last week, the National Hurricane Center increased the number of named storms it is expecting this season in the Atlantic and Caribbean basin. Early September is near the peak of the tropical season.
The original prediction of nine to 15 named storms is now 12 to 17.
Sept. 3-6 weather history
National Weather Service records show these averages over the past 10 years in Charlotte for the four days of the Democratic National Convention:
Sept. 3: 87.5, average high; 62.8, average low; trace of rain twice; dry the other eight years.
Sept. 4: 85 and 64; rained three times, including 0.96 inches in 2006.
Sept 5: 87.3 and 64.4; rained three times, including 1.62 inches last year.
Sept. 6: 85.0 and 63.8; rained three times, but the most was 0.17 inches, last year.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Wet pattern a problem for DNC events?
Friday, August 10, 2012
Strong thunderstorms expected this afternoon
Expect cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
The chance for thunderstorms in Charlotte is 50 percent this afternoon and 70 percent tonight.
New rainfall amounts will be from a 10th to a quarter inch this afternoon, with higher amounts in thunderstorms, and from a quarter- to a half-inch tonight.
Saturday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms is once again 50 percent, falling to 30 percent Saturday night.
Sunday will be mostly sunny, with a high near 89 degrees. The highs today and Saturday will reach 85 degrees.
- Joe Marusak
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Reprieve expected in Charlotte thunderstorms
Isolated showers and thunderstorms could hit some areas after 1 p.m. today, but most of the region can expect mostly sunny skies and a high near 92, according to the National Weather Service. Today’s chance of precipitation is only 20 percent, compared with 60 percent earlier this week.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will climb to 40 percent on Friday and to 60 percent by Friday night, with new rainfall amounts between a 10th and a quarter of an inch. Higher amounts are possible during thunderstorms.
Saturday won’t see any letup, as the chance for showers and thunderstorms will again be at 40 percent. Only by Sunday will the rain clouds disappear, with mostly sunny skies.
- Joe Marusak
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
More rain, storms likely this afternoon
You probably don’t want to put away your umbrella just yet as more rain could move into the Charlotte region in the afternoon on Wednesday.
The National Weather Service says scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area this afternoon, and some may be strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts or hail. The overall chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
Wednesday’s high is expected to reach 88 degrees.
It’s not yet clear whether today’s storms will be as widespread as those that drenched a good portion of the Charlotte area on Tuesday. Flash flooding was reported in parts of Mecklenburg, Cabarrus and York counties.
In Charlotte, firefighters rescued three people from flooded vehicles just west of uptown.
Two people in two separate vehicles were rescued about 8:30 p.m. at Ashley Road and Wilkinson Boulevard, said Charlotte Fire Capt. Rob Brisley. Soon, firefighters were called to rescue another driver trapped in high water at Camp Greene Street and Freedom Drive.
- April Bethea
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
More showers, thunderstorms today
Get ready for another stormy day today, as meteorologists with the National Weather Service say another round of showers and thunderstorms will visit the Charlotte region.
Blame a stationary front that will linger across the area through Wednesday, as a weak tropical low over the Gulf states lifts abundant moisture into our region.
Rain could be heavy in some areas, causing localized flash flooding, the Weather Service office in Greer, S.C., warns.
The chance of rain, mainly after noon, is 60 percent, with new rainfall amounts between a quarter and a half-inch possible.
The temperature, meanwhile, won’t get much higher than about 83 degrees, the Weather Service reports.
Showers and thunderstorms could continue to appear through Saturday.
- Joe Marusak
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Tropics come alive again
After being quiet for nearly two months, the tropics are active again.
Tropical Depression 5, which could become Tropical Storm Ernesto in a day or two, is moving westward on Thursday in the southern Atlantic. Its future is uncertain, but if the system survives a trek through hostile conditions in the eastern and central Caribbean, it could become a hurricane later.
The 2012 Atlantic/Caribbean tropical season started in a big way, with a pair of tropical storms forming in late May and early June near the Southeast coast. For the most part, it's been quiet since then.
Strong winds have blown a lot of Sahara Desert sand into the atmosphere over the Atlantic, and that has disrupted the formation of tropical systems.
TD5 managed to form a bit south of the dust and maintain some form of organization as it crossed the Atlantic.
The system could be torn apart by low-level wind shear during the next two or three days. But a number of computer models predict the system will survive the shear and intensify when it reaches more favorable conditions in the western Caribbean.
After that, it's anyone's guess. Some of the more recent models take the storm into the Gulf of Mexico for landfall in Texas. I've seen other tracks that predict the storm would make a sharp curve to the northwest and toward landfall along the Florida-Alabama-Mississippi coast next week.
Regardless of what happens, TD5 is a reminder that the busiest portion of the tropical weather season is ahead.
Monday, July 30, 2012
It's not the heat ...
You know how the saying in the headline ends.
We got a little lesson in the impact of humidity on Sunday across much of the Charlotte region, when a push of drier air made outdoor life a little more tolerable -- at least for a day.
Now the humid air has returned, and it's probably here for the rest of the week. What else would you expect in the dog days of summer?
The easiest way to measure humidity is with the dew point temperature. Basically, anything in the upper 60s or higher during the summer is very humid air. When it falls into the lower 60s or below, and it's in May through early October, that's much more comfortable.
On Sunday, Charlotte's dew point readings were in the upper 50s and low 60s. Even though the air temperature climbed into the 90s, it was a more tolerable day outdoors than Friday and Saturday, which were two of the worst days of the summer, with dew point readings in the low 70s.
But the humidity returned. The dew point temperature climbed from 59 degrees at 7 p.m. Sunday to 70 degrees at 11 a.m. Monday. That has set the stage for the rest of the week.
The atmosphere is expected to remain generally stable Monday afternoon, and that will limit thunderstorm development to a few spots -- mostly southeast of Charlotte. But the arrival of a weak low pressure system Tuesday, combined with the heat and humidity, will bring more widespread thunderstorm activity. The only good news is that temperatures Tuesday are not expected to climb much above 90, due to ample cloud cover.
The rest of the week appears to be straight from the Carolinas Summar Playbook -- hot, humid, with a few thunderstorms around every afternoon. Highs will be in the low 90s. There's a chance that we might catch some storm-free weather Thursday or Friday, if a bit of dry air can wedge into the region again briefly.
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