Plan B for Obama's speech?

A couple reports have emerged in the past 24 hours that Democratic National Convention officials have a back-up plan, in case bad weather hits Charlotte next Thursday for the outdoor nomination acceptance speech by President Obama.

Of course, those reports came about the same time as meteorologists began forecasting nice weather for the event, at Bank of America Stadium.

We'll get to the forecast -- and the rest of the Labor Day and DNC forecast -- later.  First, for that contingency plan.

A couple of blogs and CNN are reporting that convention officials have a plan, in case of bad weather, and they'll announce it closer to the time of the convention -- should inclement weather appear likely.

"Of course, there's some conversations about contingency plans," the official told CNN.

From what I've read, the plan isn't to move the event.  It basically calls for using the same protocol used by the Panthers.  In other words, if it rains, suck it up.  If there's lightning, head for cover. The guess is that the program would be resumed when the storm passes.

Hmm ... I hope the Weather Guy didn't scare them.

Originally, forecasters were talking about a high likelihood of showers and thunderstorms throughout next week, with left-over moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Isaac, and from a possible low pressure system forming along the coast.

The computer models don't seem to be showing that coastal low any more, so the big concern seems to be Isaac's moisture. The current thinking from the National Weather Service is that the shower-thunderstorm threat will be gone by the middle of next week, but they're not willing to bet the house on it.

As I've written several times since early August, we've been stuck in a persistent pattern this summer in which cold fronts advance southward, stall in our area, and produce unsettled weather. It's because much of the East has been wedged between strong high pressure to the west (responsible for the drought in the Plains) and another big high over the Atlantic.

We occasionally get two- or three-day stretches of storm-free weather, but most of the summer has been unsettled.

Weather Service meteorologists at the office in Greer, S.C., think Isaac's remnants will give us a good drenching Sunday (especially later in the day) and Monday. Afterwards, they think, rain chances will lessen.

For the record ... this will be the fourth outdoor acceptance speech by a presidential candidate. The others:

1936 -- Franklin Roosevelt, at Franklin Field in Philadelphia.

1960 -- John Kennedy, at the Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles.

2008 -- Barack Obama, at Ivesco Field in Denver.

Forecast: Good, then bad, then good

The afternoon update is in from the National Weather Service, and it confirms what I wrote this morning about our weatherfor the front end of the Labor Day weekend.

It's going to be really nice, if you don't mind a bit of heat and humidity. But the heat and humidity will be nothing out of the ordinary for late summer in the Carolinas.

The end of the Labor Day weekend looks to go downhill -- as I wrote this morning. The remnants of Tropical Storm Isaac will move northward over the next few days, then curve eastward Saturday and Sunday, crossing Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. As the remnants move eastward, they'll broaden into a large area of unsettled weather over the East.

There'll be a few storms Sunday and probably a lot of storms Monday.


The change in the forecast is for next Tuesday through Thursday, during the heat of the Democratic National Convention. While there are still some major differences in the computer models, the outlook is better than before.

It's possible we'll enjoy clear and rather nice early-September weather, with highs in the middle and upper 80s next Wednesday and Thursday.

Below is a repeat of what I wrote this morning -- with some updates ...

     TODAY

Outlook: Tropical Storm Isaac set the atmosphere in motion, causing moisture to move northward into the Carolinas from the Gulf for the past two days.  That ends today. Isaac is weakening and drifting northwest. As the day progresses, high pressure from the north begins to dominate. There'll be a few storms today, but many areas will stay dry 

High school football: A nice evening -- shirtsleeves weather. Probably no rain.


     FRIDAY

 Outlook: An easy forecast. High pressure dominates, so it's rain-free and summer-like. Expect an old-fashioned summer day to end August, with mostly sunny skies, quite a bit of humidity, and highs around 90 degrees.

High school football: Another nice evening. Temperatures in the 80s, dropping to the upper 70s.

     SATURDAY

Outlook: Another nice day, like Friday. But far to the northwest, the remnants of Isaac are making a turn to the east, crossing Illinois and Indiana. By late Saturday, moisture starts creeping back into the Carolinas.

In Charlotte: Several outdoor pre-convention events are planned, and they'll take place under partial sunshine, hot and humid weather, with highs near 90.  The Matthews Alive festival will be steamy, but rain-free.

College football: It should be a nice day, although hot. Any evening games in the mountains face the interruption of a storm.

Mountains and beaches: This is the last day in which I feel safe, saying the weather should be mostly nice in the high country. A few storms will develop there in the afternoon, but for the most part, conditions will be summer-like at both locales.

     SUNDAY

Outlook: The remnants of Isaac move from Indiana into Ohio, and the atmosphere across the Carolinas becomes a bit more unstable.  That means a few afternoon and evening storms develop. Skies are partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s.

DNC and other Charlotte events: The greatest chance of storms will be in the late afternoon and evening. Otherwise, conditions look OK.

Mountains and beaches: Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the mountains in the afternoon.  The beaches should be nice again.

     MONDAY

Outlook: Thunderstorm activity probably will be more prevalent than on Sunday, but Labor Day won't be a washout. Most of the showers and storms will come in the afternoon and evening (typical diurnal activity in the Southeast). It'll be warm and humid, with highs in the upper 80s. If you go outdoors, you will sweat.

DNC: Convention organizers scheduled an all-day outdoor festival in uptown.  At some point in the afternoon and evening, festival-goers might need to find shelter. And they'll need to stay hydrated.

     REST OF NEXT WEEK

The farther out a forecast gets, the lower the confidence level. And that's certainly the case for the rest of the DNC, for Tuesday through next Thursday.

For now, the National Weather Service says we'll see a gradual drying trend Tuesday through Thursday, with temperatures dropping a few degrees by Thursday (mid 80s for highs).

Caution ... There are lots of things that could make this forecast wrong, including some sort of coastal low pressure system that the European computer model expects to develop.  So don't go to the bank with this forecast.

FYI ... As I said this morning, a new tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic, and it probably will become Tropical Storm Leslie by the end of today. Climatology favors Leslie curving northward into the open Atlantic.

Stormy start for convention; but football dry

There's a lot on the plate for the Charlotte region in coming days -- the Democratic National Convention, high school football, the start of college football, Labor Day weekend, outdoor festivals -- and the weather will have a big impact on all of it.

Will we enjoy Chamber of Commerce weather for the next seven days, or will Charlotte share the fate of Tampa, where a passing tropical storm stole the headlines from the first two days of the Republican National Convention?



DNC organizers invested a lot in hopes that Charlotte's weather would behave, and there's a chance they might pay for that.

In short, the next few days look good, but the middle of the seven-day period isn't quite so rosy.  There are some problems on the horizon.

I'll be updating this blog frequently during the next week, because the weather will be so important -- not only to the tens of thousands involved in the DNC, but the many other thousands who are going to football games, festivals, or planning Labor Day trips to the mountains or beaches.

To make it easy, let's approach this day-by-day:

     TODAY
 
Outlook: Tropical Storm Isaac set the atmosphere in motion, causing moisture to move northward into the Carolinas from the Gulf for the past two days.  That ends today. Isaac is weakening and drifting northwest. As the day progresses, high pressure from the north begins to dominate. There'll be a few storms today, but they'll mostly be well to the west.  Look for partly cloudy skies (after morning fog dissipates) and humid conditions, with highs in the upper 80s.

High school football: A nice evening -- shirtsleeves weather. Probably no rain.

     FRIDAY

 Outlook: An easy forecast. High pressure dominates, so it's rain-free and summer-like. Expect an old-fashioned summer day to end August, with mostly sunny skies, quite a bit of humidity, and highs around 90 degrees.

High school football: Another nice evening. Temperatures in the 80s, dropping to the upper 70s.

     SATURDAY

Outlook: Another nice day, like Friday. But far to the northwest, the remnants of Isaac are making a turn to the east, crossing Illinois and Indiana. By late Saturday, moisture starts creeping back into the Carolinas.

In Charlotte: Several outdoor pre-convention events are planned, and they'll take place under partial sunshine, hot and humid weather, with highs near 90.  The Matthews Alive festival will be steamy, but rain-free.

College football: It should be a nice day, although hot. Any evening games in the mountains face the interruption of a storm.

Mountains and beaches: This is the last day in which I feel safe, saying the weather should be mostly nice in the high country. A few storms will develop there in the afternoon, but for the most part, conditions will be summer-like at both locales.

     SUNDAY

Outlook: The remnants of Isaac move from Indiana into Ohio, and the atmosphere across the Carolinas becomes a bit more unstable.  That means a few afternoon and evening storms develop. Skies are partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s.

DNC and other Charlotte events: The greatest chance of storms will be in the late afternoon and evening. Otherwise, conditions look OK.

Mountains and beaches: Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the mountains in the afternoon.  The beaches should be nice again.

     MONDAY

Outlook: Here's where it starts getting dicey. There are indications that a stalled front and low pressure could be weather-makers. Officially, the forecast is for partly sunny skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. But meteorologists say the rain chances could be much higher, depending on the position of any stalled front.

DNC: Convention organizers scheduled an all-day outdoor festival in uptown.  At this point, let's just say ... it could get stormy.

     REST OF NEXT WEEK

The farther out a forecast gets, the lower the confidence level. And that's certainly the case for the rest of the DNC, for Tuesday through next Thursday.

The National Weather Service is playing the caution card, forecasting a blanket 30 percent chance of showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday, with drier conditions Thursday. The Thursday forecast is a biggie, of course, with the DNC's major event, President Obama's speech, scheduled to highlight an all-day program at Bank of America Stadium.

But a new tropical depression is forming in the Atlantic, and it probably will become Tropical Storm Leslie by the end of today. Climatology favors Leslie curving northward into the open Atlantic, but it will bear watching.

Perhaps more importantly, one of the computer models, the European, forecasts the development of low pressure off the Carolinas coast early next week. Pat Moore, of the National Weather Service's office in Greer, S.C., said this morning that he "wasn't sure what to make of that," but it also will need to be watched.

DNC forecast looking wet

We're moving into the time frame when forecasters are starting to get a peg on weather during the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, and while there is no consensus, the majority opinion is for wetter-than-average conditions.

Basically, it appears as if the pattern in the western Carolinas in the first week of September, while the DNC folks are in town, will be much the same as it's been for months -- unsettled.

The East Coast will remain in the grips of a trough, which means cold fronts will advance southward and then stall. As the fronts approach the Carolinas and stall, they set off showers and thunderstorms.

The National Weather Service's official forecast goes through next Sunday, as of now, and it calls for daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, with high temperatures in the middle 80s.

The Weather Channel, which offers a 10-day forecast, is predicting moderate thunderstorm chances through Sept. 4, with daily highs in the low to middle 80s.  It also is calling for humid conditions during that time.

Accu-Weather takes a different track. It is predicting warm and humid conditions with plenty of showers and thunderstorms through Labor Day. Then the forecast is for hot and humid weather, with no thunderstorms. In other words, Tuesday through Thursday of convention week are expected to be in the low 90s.

While many convention activities are indoors, the forecast will play a role in a number of outdoor events -- a major festival next Saturday in the NoDa area; next Sunday's big Wall Street protest parade in uptown; the DNC outdoor festival in uptown on Labor Day; and President Obama's acceptance speech Sept. 6 at Bank of America Stadium.

Isaac might impact both conventions

The latest track of Tropical Storm Isaac and the computer models predicting its future path are pointing toward the possibility that the storm could have an impact on both upcoming political conventions.

Isaac, which had 65 mph top winds early Friday evening and was south of Haiti, is still forecast to cross Cuba this weekend as a tropical storm, then emerge into the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening to hurricane status.

Late Friday afternoon, a tropical storm watch was issued for the Florida Keys and the southern Atlantic and Gulf coasts of Florida. On the Gulf coast, the watch extends from just south of Fort Myers southward.

We've heard a lot about how Isaac could affect the Republican National Convention next week in Tampa. As of now, it appears as if the hurricane will be 150 miles off the Florida Gulf Coast -- far enough to prevent the need for wholesale evacuations in Tampa, but close enough to deliver gusty winds, heavy rain and a chance of tornadoes.

But the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte?  It's the week after next.

Alex Sosnowski, a meteorologist with Accu-Weather, says forecasters expect Isaac to be a big rain-maker when it moves inland next week. Landfall is expected on the upper Gulf coast of Florida, perhaps near Pensacola, sometime late Monday.

Andrew Kimball, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Greer, S.C., noted that the computer models have varying predictions for what happens with Isaac when it moves inland.

Most of the models predict the storm will curve north and then a bit northeast, crossing Georgia and the Carolinas. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), generally regarded as the "official" forecast, calls for the remnants to move northward through Alabama and central Tennessee.

Kimball notes that two computer models showing very heavy rain moving across the western Carolinas next Tuesday night and Wednesday. One model, the Global, calls for a swath of 8 to 12 inches of rain in some locales.

The predicted path for Isaac after landfall is in the general vicinity of dying tropical storms that have given Charlotte flooding rains in the past.

Sosnowski says it's too early to tell exactly where the heavy rain goes. But he noted the possible path of Charlotte for Isaac -- and the Democratic National Convention that starts Sept. 3, with some pre-convention events planned for next weekend.

"While Isaac will be long gone by that time (Sept. 3), any residual flooding and cleanup could cause some delays for last-minute preparations and travelers" to the DNC, Sosnowski says.

Hurricane impacts on conventions still unclear

We enter the weekend before the Republican National Convention -- and we're about a week from the start of Democratic National Convention activities in Charlotte -- without a good idea of how Tropical Storm Isaac and other tropical systems will have an impact.

First of all, my apologies for missing Thursday's post.  Health issues got in the way.  Let's just say this ... kidney stones aren't fun.

But back to business.

Hurricane specialists say the toughest part of forecasting is determining the future intensity of a storm, and Tropical Storm Isaac has been a great example.  Isaac repeatedly has confounded meteorologists by failing to organize.  The lack of organization also has made it tougher to predict the storm's path.

A strong storm is easier to predict, as it follows the path set by other weather systems. But a weak tropical storm has a tendency to meander.

As of 8 a.m. Friday, the center of Isaac was south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Top sustained winds were 50 mph, but Isaac remained poorly organized.

It is expected to cross Cuba this weekend, then enter the Florida Straits and intensify.  The National Hurricane Center predicts Isaac will remain a tropical storm across Cuba but strengthen into a hurricane in the Florida Straits.

About 90 percent of the computer models take Isaac north-northwest on Monday, running parallel to the Florida Gulf Coast.

But how far off the coast?  Forecasters say they aren't sure.  The official NHC track keeps Isaac about 150 miles off the coast.  The storm then is expected to make landfall late Monday or early Tuesday near the Florida-Alabama border on the Gulf Coast, as a hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Florida authorities are preparing, but no official action has been taken yet.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Haiti, the Dominican Republic, parts of Cuba, the southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands. Tropical storm watches are posted for Jamaica, parts of Cuba, and the central Bahamas.

First, the disclaimer.

From what I've seen with Isaac, forecasts are a gamble.  Until this storm intensifies, its path will be tough to predict. Heck, I've seen scenarios where Isaac stays in the Gulf of Mexico for a while and makes landfall in Louisiana or even east Texas. But let's say the NHC forecast track is right.

That would mean Tampa will get a stormy day Monday for the start of the RNC.  We'd be talking about a storm surge on the coast, frequent heavy thunderstorms, and a tornado threat.  It would be a bad day at the beach, but the storm would be far enough off the coast to prevent wholesale evacuations.

In other words, the RNC show would go on.

Chris Horne, of the National Weather Service's office in Greer, S.C., says the remnants of Isaac probably would impact Charlotte-area weather around Wednesday. We figure to be on the eastern edge of flooding rains and possible tornadoes, but the exact level of stormy weather is (here we go again) tough to predict this far out.

What about the DNC?

Isaac's remnants would be gone by then.  And Tropical Storm Julia is not expected to affect the United States, as it is swept northward and into the open Atlantic next week.

Following Julia is another potential tropical system that could play a role in our weather around the time of the DNC.

Isaac's aim still at Florida

2:30 p.m. update: The latest National Hurricane Center update has some interesting twists. It was issued at 11 a..m. and downgrades Isaac's expected intensity when it hits Florida next week -- down to Category 1 status, with 80 to 85 mph winds.

Perhaps the biggest change at 11 a.m. was the uncertainty. It seemed as if the NHC's meteorologist were more certain of Isaac's track and intensity with the 5 a.m. advisory. Now one of the computer models predicts Isaac will be so weakened by a trip over the Dominican Republic that it will not respond to the atmospheric weakness and will drift westward into the Gulf of Mexico.

But the overall consensus still points to Florida. And forecasters say the intensity prediction, in effect, is a guess. It all depends on whether the storm crosses a lot of land before approaching Florida.

By the way, most computer tracks take the remnants into the Carolinas next Tuesday and Wednesday.

I'll be watching for the next update at 5 p.m.  It also will be interesting to see what the National Weather Service's office in Greer says about next week, in its mid-afternoon update.


Earlier post (9:30 a.m.): Tropical Storm Isaac would get secondary attention most years, but it was the lead story on many network newscasts Wednesday morning, and for good reason.

Computer models are nearly unanimous in predicting Isaac will be over or near Florida by next Monday morning -- just in time for the start of the Republican National Convention. And it is expected to be a hurricane, possible Category 2, when that happens.

And if you extend the storm track a bit, and take into account the possible atmospheric steering patterns next week, it would appear as if the Carolinas will be in the path of Isaac's remnants.

First for the facts.

At 8 a.m., Isaac was a rather weak tropical storm, with top winds of 45 mph. It was centered about 200 miles east of the island of Guadeloupe, in the Lesser Antilles. Isaac was moving west at 19 mph and is expected to strengthen Wednesday and Thursday.

Tropical storm warnings are posted for the Lesser Antilles and for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (both the U.S. and British). A hurricane watch is up for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. And a tropical storm watch is hoisted on the north coast of the Dominican Republic.

The computers predict Isaac will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane and cross part of the Dominican Republic, then pass over eastern Cuba. At that point, it will be Sunday night, and Isaac is then forecast to move into the very warm waters of the Florida Straits and approach the Keys with 90 mph winds.

Some computer models take Isaac up the Gulf Coast, providing a direct threat to the Republican National Convention in Tampa. Other models predict the storm will cross the center of the Sunshine State. And others take Isaac up the Atlantic coast.

To me, a bigger question is the effect of the mountainous Dominican Republic (10,000-foot peaks) on the storm. Those mountains could turn Isaac into tropical road kill.  Then again, if the expected hurricane brushes past the island of Hispaniola, watch out!

I heard the mayor of Tampa talking this morning about evacuations and calling off the convention, which must be a horror scenario to Republican Party officials.  But that kind of talk is very premature.  A lot can happen between now and then.

What about the Carolinas?:  Oh, yes, there's that issue.

By the time Isaac reaches Florida, it will be sucked north by a weakness between high pressure in the Atlantic and another system to the west. The storm will be moving generally northward. If you draw some lines, that takes the remnants across South Carolina and North Carolina next Tuesday and Wednesday.

In 2004, Hurricane Frances struck Florida and curved north, bringing a record-setting tornado outbreak to South Carolina, and some twisters into the Charlotte region. Frances also produced incredible flooding in the North Carolina mountains.

I noticed this morning that the local National Weather Service office is starting to take notice. In his morning discussion, meteorologist Neil Dixon mentioned the possibility that tropical rainfall could move into the western Carolinas sometime Tuesday.

And what about 96L?   You might remember the other cluster of storms, following about 1,000 miles behind Isaac.  It's still there, and it'll probably become a tropical storm sometime Wednesday afternoon.

However, all the computer models take that system northwest through the Atlantic, then curve it northward -- far, far east of the United States.

Stay tuned.

Convention hurricane chances climb

All that supposedly far-fetched talk about a hurricane impacting the Republican National Convention in Tampa isn't so far-fetched any more.

And Democrats eager to smirk at the Republicans shouldn't be so smug, because the chances of tropical systems having an impact on the DNC in Charlotte are not zero either.

The main culprit (there are two, really, but we'll get to the second later) is Tropical Depression 9, which likely will become Tropical Storm Isaac within 24 hours. Late Tuesday morning, it was several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, with 35 mph top winds, and trying to get its act together.

The National Hurricane Center says tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Lesser Antilles -- islands like Martinique, St. Martin, Antigua, Anguilla -- with winds of 40 to 50 mph possible as Isaac passes through on Wednesday.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Puerto Rico and both the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

The official NHC forecast calls for Isaac to pass south of Puerto Rico, but close enough to deliver heavy rain and strong winds. It is predicted to be a 60 mph tropical storm at that point, then grow to a hurricane by the time it passes a short distance south of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

By 11 a.m. Saturday, Isaac is forecast to be a 105 mph hurricane, preparing to cross the center of Cuba on a northwest track toward ... the United States, one would assume, although the Hurricane Center's forecast only goes out for five days.

The major computer models, with their seven-day predictions, take Isaac somewhere near Florida next Monday and Tuesday. Some models call for the storm to move up the Gulf Coast, others up the Atlantic side, and others predict a direct hit. There are other models that show a more southerly track, into the Gulf of Mexico.

This is a big deal, of course, because the Republican National Convention is in Tampa next week.

Jeff Masters, a tropical weather specialist (www.wunderground.com), wrote in his blog Tuesday morning that this season's trend is for tropical systems to remain south, which would steer Isaac into the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico or into the Gulf.  However, he said that if a low pressure system now in western Canada moves into place across the East, it would create a weakness in the atmosphere and allow Isaac to curve northward into Florida.

Republican Party officials say they've planned for a possible hurricane, but it obviously would cause major disruptions.

Why should Democratic Party officials worry about Isaac for Charlotte?  Realistically, the system would have pushed north of the Carolinas by the time the convention starts on Labor Day weekend. But if Isaac were to curve north into Florida, and if its track were to slow by 24 hours or so, the remnants of the storm -- flooding rains, tornadoes -- could impact the inland Carolinas by late in the week leading up to the convention. A number of outdoor convention-related preview events are scheduled that weekend.

(Time for a reminder to Charlotte-area residents ... dying tropical storms are much more of a threat to us than the thriving systems.  Hurricanes die when they reach land, but their remnant heavy rains and tornado-causing wind shear remain intact far inland.)

I know, there are a ton of IF'S here.  But, as Masters noted, he originally predicted a 0.2% chance of a hurricane interrupting the Republican National Convention. Now the chances are 1 to 3%.

THAT SECOND THING ... There's another area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic, about a thousand miles east of Tropical Depression 9. Right now, it's designated as 96L, but indications are that it also will become a named storm (Joyce) in a few days. In fact, its circulation is better formed than Tropical Depression 9's.

Most computer models call for 96L to curve northwest and then north, into the open Atlantic.

But the southern-most predicted paths would bring the system on a course headed for the Southeast coast.

Stay tuned.

A distant peek at convention weather

The weather will play a role in this year's Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, with many of the events scheduled outdoors.

And we're getting the first peek at what conditions might be like for the beginning of convention activities.

Of course, convention sponsors are hoping for ideal conditions -- dry weather and temperatures in the 80s during the day.  And I'm sure Republicans in the crowd would love nothing more than several days of downpours.

I won't get into the politics of weather.  Let's just look at the forecast.

The Climate Prediction Center, a government agency operated by NOAA, has an 8-14 day forecast that calls for wetter-than-average weather and temperatures near normal.  The problem is that convention activities don't start for another 15 or 16 days, so it'll be early next week before we can use the CPC's predictions.

That leaves us with a private company, Accu-Weather.  It provides 15-day forecasts, and those take us into the start of the Labor Day weekend. The forecast into that Friday and Saturday is for wet, wet weather.

As we all know, forecasts beyond three days are an adventure, and the adventure quotient increases as the forecast gets longer.

We'll take another look at the convention forecast early next week.

Wet pattern a problem for DNC events?

History says Charlotte's weather during the Democratic National Convention will be warm and rather benign.

But this summer’s patterns could throw a meteorological monkey wrench into outdoor events planned for the DNC – notably, the outdoor festival on Labor Day and President Barack Obama’s scheduled nomination acceptance speech the night of Sept. 6 at Bank of America Stadium.

The Charlotte region has been locked in an unsettled weather pattern much of this summer, with lengthy stretches of dry weather few and far between.

In addition, hurricane specialists have upped the forecast for this season, adding the threat that the remnants of a dying hurricane or tropical storm could put a damper on outdoor events.

Climatology favors convention-organizers’ plans to stage an outdoor festival on uptown streets Sept. 3, and to stage the week’s highlight event, the president’s speech, in an outdoor venue. Trace amounts or less of rain have fallen from Sept. 3-6 in six of the last 10 years in Charlotte, and less than a quarter-inch fell during the same four-day span in two other years.

Only last year, when 1.62 inches fell on a stormy Sept. 5, and 2006, when it rained each of the four days, have been the exception. Temperatures also have been moderate, with highs reaching 90 degrees or more on only seven of 40 days between Sept. 3 and 6 in the last decade.

But the pattern should concern those who want to party outdoors in during the DNC this year.

“There has been a persistent trough over the eastern United States – low pressure between a strong high in the West and another high pressure system in the Atlantic,” said James Oh, of the National Weather Service’s office in Greer, S.C.

That trough has produced several stretches of weather like last week, when a weak cold front pushed south into the Carolinas and stalled, triggering days of thunderstorm activity. While this week’s weather is forecast to be mostly dry, another wet cycle is forecast for next week.

“Our reliable forecasts go out only about seven to 10 days, so it’s not possible to foresee what will happen when the convention is in Charlotte,” Oh said.

He said the Climate Prediction Center’s 30-day outlook isn’t much help. It calls for generally average temperature and rainfall conditions in the western Carolinas, although precipitation might be a bit higher than usual, Oh said.

The tropics are another issue. Last week, the National Hurricane Center increased the number of named storms it is expecting this season in the Atlantic and Caribbean basin. Early September is near the peak of the tropical season.

The original prediction of nine to 15 named storms is now 12 to 17.

Sept. 3-6 weather history

National Weather Service records show these averages over the past 10 years in Charlotte for the four days of the Democratic National Convention:

Sept. 3: 87.5, average high; 62.8, average low; trace of rain twice; dry the other eight years.

Sept. 4: 85 and 64; rained three times, including 0.96 inches in 2006.

Sept 5: 87.3 and 64.4; rained three times, including 1.62 inches last year.

Sept. 6: 85.0 and 63.8; rained three times, but the most was 0.17 inches, last year.

Strong thunderstorms expected this afternoon

Thunderstorms once again are expected across the Charlotte region later today, with some of the storms severe and producing damaging wind and large hail, according to the National Weather Service.

Expect cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

The chance for thunderstorms in Charlotte is 50 percent this afternoon and 70 percent tonight.
New rainfall amounts will be from a 10th to a quarter inch this afternoon, with higher amounts in thunderstorms, and from a quarter- to a half-inch tonight.

Saturday, the chance for showers and thunderstorms is once again 50 percent, falling to 30 percent Saturday night.

Sunday will be mostly sunny, with a high near 89 degrees. The highs today and Saturday will reach 85 degrees.

- Joe Marusak

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/08/10/3445456/storms-expected-later-today.html#storylink=cpy

Reprieve expected in Charlotte thunderstorms

The Charlotte region can expect a reprieve today in the showers and thunderstorms that have persisted throughout the week, but precipitation could return to some areas by early Friday morning and continue through Saturday.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms could hit some areas after 1 p.m. today, but most of the region can expect mostly sunny skies and a high near 92, according to the National Weather Service. Today’s chance of precipitation is only 20 percent, compared with 60 percent earlier this week.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will climb to 40 percent on Friday and to 60 percent by Friday night, with new rainfall amounts between a 10th and a quarter of an inch. Higher amounts are possible during thunderstorms.

Saturday won’t see any letup, as the chance for showers and thunderstorms will again be at 40 percent. Only by Sunday will the rain clouds disappear, with mostly sunny skies.

- Joe Marusak

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/08/09/3442380/reprieve-expected-in-thunderstorms.html#storylink=cpy

More rain, storms likely this afternoon

You probably don’t want to put away your umbrella just yet as more rain could move into the Charlotte region in the afternoon on Wednesday.

The National Weather Service says scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area this afternoon, and some may be strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts or hail. The overall chance of precipitation is 30 percent.

Wednesday’s high is expected to reach 88 degrees.

It’s not yet clear whether today’s storms will be as widespread as those that drenched a good portion of the Charlotte area on Tuesday. Flash flooding was reported in parts of Mecklenburg, Cabarrus and York counties.

In Charlotte, firefighters rescued three people from flooded vehicles just west of uptown.

Two people in two separate vehicles were rescued about 8:30 p.m. at Ashley Road and Wilkinson Boulevard, said Charlotte Fire Capt. Rob Brisley. Soon, firefighters were called to rescue another driver trapped in high water at Camp Greene Street and Freedom Drive.

 - April Bethea

More showers, thunderstorms today

Get ready for another stormy day today, as meteorologists with the National Weather Service say another round of showers and thunderstorms will visit the Charlotte region.

Blame a stationary front that will linger across the area through Wednesday, as a weak tropical low over the Gulf states lifts abundant moisture into our region.

Rain could be heavy in some areas, causing localized flash flooding, the Weather Service office in Greer, S.C., warns.

The chance of rain, mainly after noon, is 60 percent, with new rainfall amounts between a quarter and a half-inch possible.

The temperature, meanwhile, won’t get much higher than about 83 degrees, the Weather Service reports.

Showers and thunderstorms could continue to appear through Saturday.

- Joe Marusak

Tropics come alive again

After being quiet for nearly two months, the tropics are active again.

Tropical Depression 5, which could become Tropical Storm Ernesto in a day or two, is moving westward on Thursday in the southern Atlantic. Its future is uncertain, but if the system survives a trek through hostile conditions in the eastern and central Caribbean, it could become a hurricane later.

The 2012 Atlantic/Caribbean tropical season started in a big way, with a pair of tropical storms forming in late May and early June near the Southeast coast. For the most part, it's been quiet since then.

Strong winds have blown a lot of Sahara Desert sand into the atmosphere over the Atlantic, and that has disrupted the formation of tropical systems.

TD5 managed to form a bit south of the dust and maintain some form of organization as it crossed the Atlantic.

The system could be torn apart by low-level wind shear during the next two or three days. But a number of computer models predict the system will survive the shear and intensify when it reaches more favorable conditions in the western Caribbean.

After that, it's anyone's guess.  Some of the more recent models take the storm into the Gulf of Mexico for landfall in Texas. I've seen other tracks that predict the storm would make a sharp curve to the northwest and toward landfall along the Florida-Alabama-Mississippi coast next week.

Regardless of what happens, TD5 is a reminder that the busiest portion of the tropical weather season is ahead.