Sunday, January 26, 2014

Will Charlotte get snow Tuesday? Here's the scenario

We've been lucky or unlucky -- depending on whether or not you like snow -- that none of the arctic blasts this month have been accompanied by a storm system.

Outside of the mountains, it's been cold and dry. That's about to change, at least for parts of the Carolinas.

Since late last week, those in the weather-watching world have been paying attention to the computer models as they were updated every six hours, trying to determine if the Southeast would get clobbered with a winter storm Tuesday and early Wednesday.

By early in the weekend, it became more obvious that a disturbance coming from the Pacific onto the West Coast would trek across the country around the same time that another arctic cold front pushes into the Southeast. That would create a winter storm.

On Saturday, it looked like the storm would be suppressed south of the Charlotte region by the strong arctic high pressure system over the Great Lakes. Snow was expected in the Carolinas, but only at the coast. On Sunday, that changed a bit. Some (not all) of the computer models began predicting the storm track would be farther north. In other words, the snow was pushed farther inland.

Officially, it still looks like the snow and will remain southeast of Charlotte. A couple inches are likely in places like Macon, Ga., Athens, Ga., Columbia, Florence and Fayetteville. A mix of ice and snow, with possibly enough ice to cause power outages, was expected in Charleston and possibly Myrtle Beach.

But nobody is firmly in or out of the frozen precipitation area yet.

"The systems that would create such an event are not even in place yet," National Weather Service meteorologist Neil Dixon said Sunday evening. "It will be later (Monday) before we have a better idea."

Dixon said one thing is certain about Charlotte and any precipitation.

"If anything falls in Charlotte, it will be snow," he said. "A lot of times, we have marginal temperatures for snow. But not this time. It will be plenty cold enough."

Temperatures will be in the upper teens and lower 20s Tuesday evening and early Wednesday when the storm system makes its approach to the Carolinas.

Either way, this system figures to bring some frozen precipitation to places that don't often see it.

Some of the places that are included in the vast expanse of the winter storm watch?  How about Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, Pensacola, Macon, Savannah and Charleston?  It was 70 degrees in Houston at 6 p.m. Sunday, yet sleet and freezing rain are expected there in a little more than 24 hours. That's what an arctic cold front followed by a storm system will bring you.

By the way, this arctic blast appears to be the last for a while. Temperatures will modify later in the week, and we'll be near 60 degrees by next weekend. Another big storm system is predicted by the computer models for early in the week of Feb. 3, but that storm would bring rain to the Carolinas, as we'll be well above freezing by then.

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

My bet is we will not...a safe bet

Anonymous said...

A good be as our best snows start in the Gulf and ride up the I-85 corridor.

Jason said...

Sounds like there is some doubt as to whether the snow-repelling forcefield dome over Charlotte will be strong enough.

Anonymous said...

But what has Brad Panicovich said about it? has he called for milk and bread runs yet...are the schools already shut down?

Anonymous said...

So sick of Charlotte "winters"!

Anonymous said...

If there is snow, it will resemble a heavy frost that will melt away in a couple hours. But that will not stop the schools from shutting down all week and the TV weathermen from standing out in it all night with dramatic 24/7 "full team coverage."

Anonymous said...

We are due for a big storm! Don't forget - most of the big storms that hit Charlotte are simular to this one and usually underestimated by the forecasters. Normally the issue is the temperature so don't be shocked if we endup with 6-12 inches of snow...

Anonymous said...

'Sick' of Charlotte winters...MOVE!

Anonymous said...

"MOVE!" A stupid, reactionary suggestion.

Anonymous said...

If it snows more than 2 inches in Charlotte I'll crap in my hat and post a photo on facebook.

Al Mud Skunk said...

If it snows in Charlotte, Brad Panic will be out in the streets in a parka warning people buy up all the bread and milk and to stay home...trucks will dump an inch of salt on the roads, and schools will close for a week.

Jerrod Tressel said...

Snow is coming. There is no doubt. Know what to do:

1. Buy two gallons of fresh 1% milk.
2. Buy three loaves of white sandwich bread.
3. Turn on your TV to Brad Panovich who will tell you what you should do. Do not leave the 24/7 "full team coverage" unless you have to.
4. Fill up with gas.
5. Keep your kids and dogs in the house.
6. Put a flashlight in every room.
7. Stay indoors! Do not go out unless you absolutely have to.

This is for your own good. This is best for you.

Anonymous said...

It totally cracks me up when another Observer article refers to this possible snowfall as "the area’s first significant snowstorm in three years."

Significant? Three inches? And referring to it as a snowstorm?

You guys are nuts. Every single one of you...just plain nuts.

Twonkor said...

"Significant? Three inches? And referring to it as a snowstorm?"

Exactly. This is ALL hype. Charlotte does not get true "snow storms" as they do in other parts of the country, so they hype-up and dramatize a few inches to make residents believe something big is about to happen. Panic milk buying and closing schools (even when there is NO snow) does not make it so either.

There are many who don't fall for this foolishness; but there are plenty of weather-hypers and their loyal listeners who are, as you say, plain NUTS.

Anonymous said...

Always fun to see the Northerners who are all 'experts' driving in the snow.. In the ditches as they find out driving on roads that aren't frozen from winter temps cause ice vs just blowing or packed snow. Southern roads also don't have gravel and sand from winters past still on them to assist them as they slide into the ditch. Snow in the South is a big deal. Live here for decades and you will see. Until then, route for your Yankees as they miss the playoffs again in 2014! All ya'll NUTS!

Thud Bud said...

No one mentioned anything about North/South, driving on ice, or baseball teams. Such an over-emotional, poorly considered reaction.

Panic over a few inches of snow that will melt the same day is indeed nuts. There are plenty of Charlotte natives that agree.

Anonymous said...

Where's the snow? Maybe it got held up in traffic?

Anonymous said...

The streets are plastered white with salt brine, the schools are shut down and locked. Every gallon of milk and loaf of bread has been snatched by the panicking mob. The weathermen have busted in on every channel with dramatic "full team coverage." So, where the ---- is the snow???

Anonymous said...

Snowing in Belmont.

Anonymous said...

Oh my! It is time for FULL TEAM COVERAGE!

Panic, Brad, panic!

Anonymous said...

Did Brad Panic get through this without overheating?

Anonymous said...

Over and done...and nothing to it. YAWN...SNORE....

YAWN....

Anonymous said...

Over a week and nothing new. Without weather extremes like the recent cold waves, there is nothing to write about. Could be time for more 25 year old tornado stories.

Anonymous said...

YAWN....YAWN..........

Chad said...

Old, old news...

Anonymous said...

YAWN......

Anonymous said...

This blog is comatose...